In 30 years, gender-neutral vaccination eradicates oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types while screening eliminates HPV-associated cancers

Figures & data

Figure 1. Mathematical model [5,6] based prediction on the impact of implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination with 80% coverage according to the girls-only (a and b) vs. gender-neutral (c and d) strategy on HPV16 incidence in women (left) and men (right) by age and calendar time (years).

Figure 2. Incidence of invasive cervical cancer (/100,000 women) in Finnish fertile-aged women (<40 years of age) during 1953–2018 (NORDCAN 2.0 https://nordcan.iarc.fr/en/ Database version 9.0 accessed on 11/07/202 [21]). The red dotted line indicates the cervical cancer elimination threshold specified by the WHO. The blue dots indicate the observed crude rate of each year.

Table 1. Incidence (age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 women) of cervical cancer in 20–39-year-old Finnish women over 60 years (NORDCAN)

	Age
Period	20–24	25-29	30–34	35-39	20–39
1954–1958	0.1	2.9	10.1	29.5	10.4
1959–1963	0.4	2.0	9.4	23.6	8.9
1964–1968	0.7	3.1	7.4	21.1	7.7
1969–1973	0.3	1.9	5.6	12.4	4.3
1974–1978	0.4	2.3	4.1	4.8	2.7
1979–1983	0.8	2.2	4.2	4.7	3.0
1984–1988	0.4	2.3	2.8	4.6	2.6
1989–1993	0.6	1.6	4.1	5.0	2.9
1994–1998	0.9	3.5	6.6	8.7	5.2
1999–2003	0.4	5.0	10.6	8.5	6.3
2004–2008	1.2	4.3	10.2	11.0	6.7
2009–2013	2.6	5.3	8.6	13.3	7.4
2014–2018	1.0	4.6	10.7	13.4	7.5

Vänskä S, Luostarinen T, Baussano I, et al., Vaccination with moderate coverage eradicates oncogenic Human Papillomaviruses if a gender-neutral strategy is applied. J Infect Dis. 222(6): 948–956. 2020.

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Gray P, Kann H, Pimenoff VN, et al. HPV seroprevalence in pregnant women following gender-neutral and girls-only vaccination programs in Finland. PLoS Med. 2021;18:e1003588.••Randomized trial evidence that already low to moderate coverage gender-neutral HPV vaccination provides herd effect against HPV16.

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NORDCAN 2.0. Database version 9.0 accessed on 11/07/2021 (Figure 2), 09/09/2021 (table) 11 07 2021. https://nordcan.iarc.fr/en

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