Do they stay or go? Analysis of international students in Finland

Figures & data

Table 1. Graduates 1999–2011.

	Graduates by institution				Staying 3 years after graduation
	Applied university	University – Master	University – Doctoral		Applied university	University – Master	University – doctoral
Panel A: All international students
1999	44	204	75		0.73	0.54	0.55
2000	75	237	80		0.76	0.53	0.75
2001	123	228	85		0.77	0.56	0.65
2002	177	299	92		0.76	0.58	0.71
2003	211	267	103		0.75	0.65	0.56
2004	243	304	114		0.74	0.67	0.68
2005	318	324	125		0.75	0.71	0.66
2006	249	363	131		0.75	0.72	0.63
2007	288	386	134		0.80	0.67	0.66
2008	357	552	114		0.74	0.72	0.70
2009	407	535	160		0.73	0.70	0.70
2010	576	622	150		0.73	0.70	0.63
2011	637	728	156		0.73	0.69	0.58
Total	3705	5049	1519		0.74	0.67	0.65
Panel B: Those who did not live in Finland before enrolment
1999	16	153	62		0.69	0.52	0.48
2000	36	181	51		0.64	0.49	0.69
2001	49	164	64		0.65	0.49	0.64
2002	84	228	71		0.64	0.56	0.68
2003	109	199	77		0.64	0.62	0.56
2004	135	224	85		0.64	0.64	0.62
2005	152	238	89		0.64	0.66	0.69
2006	158	295	101		0.66	0.70	0.56
2007	165	311	110		0.72	0.61	0.65
2008	226	420	90		0.67	0.70	0.69
2009	287	451	121		0.66	0.68	0.69
2010	415	503	105		0.68	0.68	0.64
2011	449	596	119		0.69	0.65	0.57
Total	2281	3963	1145		0.67	0.64	0.63
Panel C: Those who did not live in Finland before enrolment year and outside EU28
1999	10	107	44		0.70	0.51	0.43
2000	24	125	35		0.58	0.51	0.69
2001	35	118	45		0.71	0.50	0.56
2002	68	157	47		0.66	0.56	0.72
2003	94	139	49		0.67	0.66	0.51
2004	107	145	57		0.61	0.68	0.67
2005	124	170	58		0.63	0.65	0.69
2006	128	189	59		0.66	0.71	0.58
2007	127	227	61		0.72	0.65	0.59
2008	191	312	56		0.69	0.69	0.73
2009	234	349	74		0.63	0.70	0.72
2010	381	398	63		0.68	0.67	0.63
2011	413	481	73		0.69	0.66	0.55
Total	1936	2917	721		0.67	0.65	0.62

Table 2. Background factors and the decision to stay three years after graduation.

Dependent variable: 1 = Living in Finland, 0 = otherwise.
	Odds ratio	Marginal effects
Enrolment age groups:
−20	Ref. group	Ref. group
20–24	1.287 (0.107)***	0.050 (0.016)***
25–29	1.570 (0.146)***	0.089 (0.018)***
30–45	1.458 (0.154)***	0.074 (0.021)***
Male	0.927 (0.048)	−0.015 (0.101)
Married:
Not married	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Married to non-Finn.	1.316 (0.091)***	0.054(0.014)***
Married to Finn.	2.790 (0.210)***	0.203 (0.015)***
Has a child	2.109 (0.159)***	0.148 (0.015)***
Other family	3.437 (0.568)***	0.244 (0.032)***
Earlier stay in Finland	1.384 (0.091)***	0.064 (0.013)***
Employment:
Not-employed	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Employed	1.966 (0.126)***	0.134 (0.013)***
Employed in white collar job	2.127 (0.146)***	0.149 (0.014)***
Completed degree by institution:
University – master	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Applied university	1.192 (0.069)***	0.035 (0.011)***
University – doctoral	0.555 (0.042)***	−0.116 (0.015)***
Graduation region:
Capital region	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Large city regions	1.102 (0.076)	0.020 (0.015)
Other regions	1.524 (0.086)***	0.083 (0.011)***
Field of education:
Social science, Business and law	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Education	0.873 (0.166)	−0.027 (0.037)
Humanities and art	1.016 (0.084)	0.003 (0.016)
Science	1.526 (0.142)***	0.083 (0.018)***
Technical	1.302 (0.084)***	0.052 (0.013)***
Health and welfare	1.449 (0.114)***	0.073 (0.016)***
Other	1.073 (0.123)	0.013 (0.023)
Region of origin:
EU-28	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Other Europe and Turkey	1.630 (0.121)***	0.096 (0.015)***
Asia	0.794 (0.051)***	−0.046 (0.013)***
Africa	1.064 (0.091)	0.012 (0.017)
Other	0.919 (0.102)	−0.017 (0.022)
Average predicted probability	0.693	0.693
Pseudo likelihood	−5646	−4062
Pseudo R^2	0.109	0.113
Observations	10,273	10,273

Note: Model includes also graduation year dummies to account for business cycle (and other) variation. Significance *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

Table 3. Background factors & decision to stay three years after graduation by institution (Marginal effects).

Dependent variable: 1 = Living in Finland, 0 = otherwise
	Applied university	University – Master	University – Doctor
Enrolment age groups:
−20	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
20–24	0.033 (0.018)*	0.029 (0.026)	−0.223 (0.173)
25–29	0.118 (0.024)***	0.045 (0.029)	−0.248 (0.172)
30–45	0.140 (0.029)***	0.028 (0.034)	−0.305 (0.173)*
Male	0.013 (0.018)	−0.027 (0.015)*	−0.047 (0.028)*
Married:
Not married	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Married to non-Finn.	0.022 (0.019)	0.079 (0.023)***	0.062 (0.032)*
Married to Finn.	0.140 (0.019)***	0.245 (0.025)***	0.238 (0.040)***
Has a child	0.128 (0.024)***	0.152 (0.024)***	0.143 (0.031)***
Other family	0.242 (0.040)***	0.222 (0.050)***	0.337 (0.161)**
Earlier stay in Finland	0.021 (0.018)	0.098 (0.020)***	0.055 (0.033)**
Employment:
Not-employed	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Employed	0.099 (0.016)***	0.164 (0.021)***	0.153 (0.042)***
Employed in white collar job	0.145 (0.023)***	0.159 (0.021)***	0.151 (0.034)***
Graduation region:
Capital region	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Large city regions	0.015 (0.022)	0.024 (0.024)	0.036 (0.032)
Other regions	0.038 (0.016)**	0.154 (0.019)***	0.101 (0.031)***
Field of education:
Social science, Business and law	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Education	−0.068 (0.171)	−0.039 (0.051)	0.028 (0.165)
Humanities and art	−0.005 (0.037)	−0.007 (0.025)	0.036 (0.058)
Science	…	0.161 (0.027)***	−0.076 (0.043)*
Technical	0.039 (0.016)**	0.058 (0.021)***	0.029 (0.043)
Health and welfare	0.112 (0.022)***	0.017 (0.028)	−0.031 (0.050)
Other	−0.021 (0.027)	0.041 (0.039)	0.014 (0.071)
Region of origin:
EU-28	Ref. group.	Ref. group.	Ref. group.
Other Europe and Turkey	0.107(0.025)***	0.076 (0.024)***	0.084 (0.039)
Asia	−0.044 (0.020)**	−0.052 (0.020)**	0.012 (0.034)
Africa	0.020 (0.023)	−0.082 (0.030)***	0.052 (0.050)
Other	−0.032 (0.038)	0.004 (0.031)	−0.072 (0.063)
Average predicted probability	0.744	0.689	0.648
Log likelihood	−1773	−2869	−887
Pseudo R^2	0.157	0.105	0.099
Observations	3705	5049	1519

Note: Model includes also graduation year dummies to account for business cycle (and other) variation. Significance *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

Table 4. Selected background factors with interactions (Marginal effects).

Dependent variable: 1 = Living in Finland, 0 = otherwise
Panel A:Institution and employment
Institution
Applied university	Ref.
University – Master	−0.033 (0.012)***
University – Doctor	−0.140 (0.017)***
Employment
Not employed	Ref.
Employed	0.127 (0.012)***
Employed in white collar job	0.147 (0.012)***
Conditional: Applied university
Employed	0.113 (0.015)***
Employed in white collar job	0.158 (0.019)***
Conditional: University – Master
Employed	0.123 (0.017)***
Employed in white collar job	0.148 (0.017)***
Conditional: University – Doctor
Employed	0.178 (0.033)***
Employed in white collar job	0.117 (0.028)***
Panel B:Marital status and employment
Marital status
Not married	Ref.
Married to non-Finn.	0.048 (0.014)***
Married to Finn.	0.176 (0.011)***
Employment
Not employed	Ref.
Employed	0.127 (0.014)***
Employed in white collar job	0.138 (0.012)***
Conditional: Not married
Employed	0.139 (0.016)***
Employed in white collar job	0.145 (0.017)***
Conditional: Married to non-Finn.
Employed	0.145 (0.025)***
Employed in white collar job	0.179 (0.024)***
Conditional: Married to Finn.
Employed	0.082 (0.018)***
Employed in white collar job	0.083 (0.018)***
Number of observations	10,273
Average predicted rate	0.693

Note: Logistic estimations in panel a and b include interaction terms. For other variables, see Table 2.

Table

Variable	Explanation	% share
Enrolment age groups:	1 = Belongs to this group, otherwise = 0
20	1 = Belongs to this group, …	0.09
20–24	1 = Belongs to this group, …	0.40
25–29	1 = Belongs to this group, …	0.31
30–45	1 = Belongs to this group, …	0.20
Male	1 = Male, …	0.53
Married:
Not married	1 = Not married (Finnish registry).	0.61
Married to non-Finn.	1 = Married to non-Finn living in Finland.	0.18
Married to Finn.	1 = Married to Finn.	0.21
Has a child	1 = At least one child in Finland.	0.23
Other family	1 = Has mom/dad (or both) living in Finland.	0.05
Earlier stay in Finland	1 = Lived in Finland year prior enrolment.	0.28
Employment:
Not-employed	1 = Not employed in year end.	0.53
Employed	1 = Employed in year end.	0.47
Employed in white collar job	1 = White collar job in year end.	0.23
Graduation region:
Capital region	1 = If from Helsinki region (NUTS2).	0.39
Large city regions	1 = If from Turku-Tampere regions (NUTS2).	0.16
Other regions	1 = If from other NUTS2 regions.	0.45
Field of education:
Education	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.02
Humanities and art	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.12
Social science, Business and law	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.27
Science	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.09
Technical	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.30
Health and welfare	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.15
Other	1 = If graduates from this faculty.	0.05
Region of origin:
EU-28	1 = If from this region.	0.25
Other Europe and Turkey	1 = If from this region.	0.21
Asia	1 = If from this region.	0.32
Africa	1 = If from this region.	0.15
Other	1 = If from this region.	0.06

Note: Time variant explanatory variables measured one year before graduation year if not stated otherwise.