The Independence of Kosovo and the Consolidation of Macedonia—A Reason to Worry?

Abstract

Macedonia should not worry about Kosovo becoming independent. This article reviews the current state of affairs in the northern neighbour. The author analyses whether there is a potential danger of an independent Kosovo negatively affecting internal politics in Macedonia. Is there the danger of the escalation of a new conflict. Presenting the factors that impeded democratic consolidation, it is argued that since the configuration of factors that existed in early 2001 and contributed to the mini-war in Macedonia are either non-existent or have been ameliorated, the chances are good that Macedonia will instead continue on its path to European integration. Macedonia should only be concerned if the situation in Kosovo deteriorates and partition is implemented.

Keywords:

• Macedonia
• ethnic politics
• Kosova
• self-determination
• nationalism
• Macedonian Albanians

Notes

¹ On the Serbian proposal see Jednodecenijsko zakašnjenje, Danas (2006, June 10).

² See Jackson, B. (2006) Medunarodni faktori već odlučili da Kosovo ove godine dobije neki vid suvereniteta, in: [New Serbian Political Thought]. Available online at: http://www.nspm.org.yu/Debate/2006_KOS_dzekson.htm (accessed 1 February 2008).

³ For the Serbs living in Kosovo and their territorial distribution see the report of the European Stability Initiative (2004) The Lausanne Principle: Multiethnicity, Territory and The Future of Kosovo's Serbs. The Serbs that still remain in Kosovo are estimated at some 100,000, living in small enclaves scattered across the province and north of the Ibar river, sharing a border with the rest of Serbia. An estimated 200,000 are refugees in Serbia. Available online at: http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/esi_document_id_53.pdf

⁴ See for example, Pettifer, J. (2006) Kosova Negotiations—Background and Perspectives (Watchfield: Conflict Studies Research Centre).

⁵ Unfounded allegations of Serbs drowning Albanian children sparked fighting in Mitrovica, leading to two days of Kosovo-wide riots that killed 19 and wounded 900. More than 50,000 Albanians participated in anti-Serb riots in a two day rampage that killed 19 people, injured 900, forced 4000 persons to flee their homes and left the UN mission in turmoil. The KFOR and UNMIK responses were disorganized and damaged their credibility, particularly amongst Serbs. See, for example, Collapse in Kosovo, Europe Report no. 155, 22 April 2004. Available online at: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id = 2627&1 = 1.

⁶ Serbian civilians still living in Kosovo suffer occasional racially motivated attacks even now. See for example, BBC News, 6 June 2006, ‘Kosovo Serbs to cut ties with UN.’ It is difficult to imagine what would happen if the results of the negotiations are conceived as not beneficial to the Albanian side.

⁷ For a critique of such an attitude see Golubovic, Z. (2006, February 15) Povodom izjave Tomislava Nikolića o proglašavanju okupacije Kosova-Opasan ratni poklič, Danas, p. 5.

⁸ On the topic in general and the understanding of reformatory change of the regime, see Kis, J. (1998) Between reform and revolution, East European politics and societies, p. 323; on the democratic transition in Macedonia see Daskalovski, Z. (1999) Elite transformation and democratic transition in Macedonia and Slovenia, Balkanologie 3(1): pp. 5–32.

⁹ See Rossos, A. (2002) The Macedonian question and instability in the Balkans, in: N. N. Naimark & H. Case (Eds) Yugoslavia and its Historians, p. 104 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press).

¹⁰ See for example De Rapper, G. (1998) Crisis in Kosovo: Reactions in Albania and Macedonia at the Local Level, Ethnobarometer Programme Working Paper no. 3 (Rome: CSS/CEMES).

¹¹ See Babuna, A. (2000) The Albanians of Kosovo and Macedonia: ethnic identity superseding religion, Nationalities Papers, 28(1), p. 83.

¹² See Fraenkel, E. (2003) Macedonia, Nations in Transit 2003, p. 403 (New York: Freedom House).

¹³ Hislope, R. (2003) Between a bad peace and a good war: insights and lessons from the almost-war in Macedonia, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 26(1), p. 139.

¹⁴ Kis, J. (1996) Beyond the national state, Social Research, 63(1), pp. 224–225.

¹⁵ Kis, J. (1996) Beyond the national state, Social Research, 63(1), p. 237.

¹⁶ See, for example: International Crisis Group (1999) Towards Destabilisation?, ICG Balkans Reports no. 67 (Skopje/Brussels: International Crisis Group); International Crisis Group (2000) Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf, ICG Balkans Reports no. 98 (Skopje/Brussels: International Crisis Group); Daftary, F. (2001a) Testing Macedonia, ECMI Brief no. 4 (Flensburg: European Centre for Minority Issues; Daftary, F. (2001b) Conflict Resolution in FYR Macedonia: Power-sharing or the ‘Civic Approach’, Helsinki Monitor no. 4 (Helsinki: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers).

¹⁷ See in greater depth in Daskalovski, Z. (2005) Walking on the Edge: Consolidating Multiethnic Macedonia 1989–2004 (Chapel Hill, NC: Globic: Daskalovski, Z. (2004) The Macedonian Conflict of 2001: Between Successful Diplomacy, Rhetoric and Terror, Studies in Post-Communism Occasional Papers (Antigonish: St Francis Xavier University).

¹⁸ See, for example, Pearson, B. (2002) Putting Peace into Practice: Can Macedonia's New Government Meet the Challenge? (US Institute for Peace); International Crisis Group (2002) Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down, Europe Report no. 133. Available online at: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id = 1693&1 = 1.

¹⁹ See, for example, Hislope, R. (2003) Between a bad peace and a good war: insights and lessons from the almost-war in Macedonia, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 26(1), p. 135.

²⁰ See Garton Ash, T. (2001, November 29) Is there a good terrorist?, The New York Review of Books, pp. 30–33; Ahmeti, A., Wikipedia. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Ahmeti (accessed 1 February 2008).