Economic decline and the birth of a tourist nation

Figures & data

Figure 1. Cost of living index in Norway and other European countries (Numbeo.com, 2018). Data source: Numbeo.com.

Figure 2. Correlation between the Norwegian GDP and the world crude oil price. Data source: The World Bank and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 3. Development in number of tourists’ hotel guest nights relative to changes in value of NOK currency. Data source: Statistics Norway and The World Bank.

Table 1. Number of overnight stays in hotels in Norway (in million).

Year	Total	International	Domestic	Course /conference	Business	Holiday
2005	17.11	4.76	12.35	2.48	5.92	8.71
2006	17.77	4.91	12.86	2.49	6.62	8.66
2007	18.53	5.07	13.46	2.55	7.22	8.75
2008	18.22	4.89	13.33	2.63	7.24	8.36
2009	17.65	4.43	13.23	2.44	6.86	8.36
2010	18.39	4.80	13.59	2.51	6.97	8.91
2011	19.20	4.90	14.30	2.55	7.27	9.38
2012	19.80	5.05	14.75	2.59	7.64	9.57
2013	19.67	5.05	14.62	2.59	7.69	9.40
2014	20.32	5.40	14.92	2.59	7.93	9.80
2015	21.54	5.99	15.55	2.70	7.75	11.09
2016	22.48	6.57	15.91	2.84	7.86	11.78
2017	23.13	6.53	16.60	2.83	8.51	11.79
2018	23.57	6.58	16.99	2.80	8.62	12.15
Average share (2005–2013)	100%	26%	74%	14%	38%	48%
Average share (2014–2018)	100%	28%	72%	12%	37%	51%
Average share (2005–2018)	100%	27%	73%	13%	38%	49%
Annual growth rate (2005–2013)	1.90%	0.80%	2.30%	0.50%	3.70%	1.00%
Annual growth rate (2014–2018)	4.00%	5.46%	3.47%	2.03%	2.18%	5.99%

Data source: Statistics Norway

Table 2. GDP, hotel price and hotel revenue in Norway.

	GDP		Hotel price		Hotel revenue
Year	Value (Million US$)	Growth rate	NOK/room	Growth rate	(Million NOK)	Growth rate
2005	308,460	-	717	-	12,268	-
2006	345,978	12%	746	4%	13,259	8%
2007	402,178	16%	811	9%	15,024	13%
2008	468,276	16%	868	7%	15,816	5%
2009	388,650	−17%	863	−1%	15,235	−4%
2010	428,757	10%	859	0%	15,800	4%
2011	498,291	16%	866	1%	16,630	5%
2012	509,344	2%	874	1%	17,308	4%
2013	522,851	3%	884	1%	17,390	0%
2014	499,797	−4%	885	0%	17,983	3%
2015	386,809	−23%	897	1%	19,320	7%
2016	367,821	−5%	903	1%	20,303	5%
2017	398,744	8%	946	5%	21,884	8%
2018	435,411	9%	960	1%	22,629	3%

Data source: Statistics Norway

Table 3. Estimation results for hotel revenue models.

	Total		International		Leisure
	Estimate	t value	Estimate	t value	Estimate	t value
Intercept	14.507**	(11.78)	−0.518	(−0.23)	9.594**	(4.251)
$lnGD{P}^N$/$lnGD{P}^I$	0.511**	(4.80)	1.469**	(8.66)	0.856**	(4.387)
$lnGD{P}^N\ast EN$	−0.238	(−1.58)			−0.797**	(−2.893)
$lnGD{P}^N\ast SN$	−0.212	(−1.41)			−0.642**	(−2.330)
$lnGD{P}^N\ast WN$	0.253*	(1.68)			0.032	(0.118)
$lnGD{P}^N\ast CN$	0.114	(0.76)			−0.101**	(−0.367)
$lnGD{P}^N\ast NN$	0.070	(0.47)			0.118	(0.429)
$lnEX$	−1.136***	(−16.46)	−0.501**	(−3.40)	−1.594**	(−12.613)
$EN$	2.490	(1.43)	−1.035**	(−13.15)	8.912**	(2.796)
$SN$	1.973	(1.13)	−1.397**	(−17.75)	7.053**	(2.212)
$WN$	−3.044*	(−1.75)	−0.863**	(−10.97)	−0.761	(−0.239)
$CN$	−2.002	(−1.15)	−1.896**	(−24.10)	0.229	(0.072)
$NN$	−1.762	(−1.01)	−2.117**	(−26.91)	−2.544	(−0.798)
$EN{Q}_1$	0.334**	(6.50)	0.908**	(9.24)	0.589**	(6.251)
$EN{Q}_2$	0.176**	(3.42)	0.5858**	(5.96)	0.424**	(4.499)
$EN{Q}_3$	0.454**	(8.84)	0.907**	(9.23)	0.960**	(10.202)
$SN{Q}_1$	0.395**	(7.67)	0.964**	(9.82)	0.656**	(6.959)
$SN{Q}_2$	0.230**	(4.47)	0.552**	(5.62)	0.393**	(4.173)
$SN{Q}_3$	0.594**	(11.55)	0.865**	(8.81)	0.969**	(10.297)
$WN{Q}_1$	−0.126**	(−2.44)	−0.149	(−1.52)	−0.169*	(−1.788)
$WN{Q}_2$	0.389**	(7.57)	1.065**	(10.85)	0.813**	(8.633)
$WN{Q}_3$	0.653**	(12.71)	1.590**	(16.19)	1.342**	(14.252)
$CN{Q}_1$	−0.054	(−1.04)	0.089	(0.90)	−0.028	(−0.301)
$CN{Q}_2$	0.201**	(3.90)	0.910**	(9.27)	0.501**	(5.319)
$CN{Q}_3$	0.501**	(9.75)	1.378**	(14.03)	1.102**	(11.707)
$NN{Q}_1$	0.057	(1.11)	0.459**	(4.67)	0.060	(0.638)
$NN{Q}_2$	0.369**	(7.18)	1.242**	(12.64)	0.762**	(8.098)
$NN{Q}_3$	0.605**	(11.78)	1.742**	(17.74)	1.277**	(13.561)
Adjusted $R^2$	0.90		0.91		0.86

Notes: Numbers in parentheses are asymptotic t-ratios. *, ** indicate significance at the 10 and 5 per cent level, respectively. A large t values (usually larger than 2 when sample is large) suggests the associated explanatory variable has an effect on the dependent variable.

The regional notations are Eastern Norway (EN), SN Southern Norway (SN), Western Norway (WN), Central Norway (CN) and Northern Norway (NN).

Table A1. Number of hotel overnight stays in Western Norway (in million).

	Course/conference	Work	Holiday	Total
2005	0.41	1.41	1.65	3.47
2006	0.43	1.65	1.72	3.80
2007	0.43	1.84	1.78	4.05
2008	0.45	1.84	1.69	3.97
2009	0.38	1.74	1.64	3.76
2010	0.39	1.69	1.82	3.91
2011	0.40	1.79	1.99	4.19
2012	0.44	1.90	1.95	4.29
2013	0.45	1.96	1.92	4.33
2014	0.43	1.93	2.08	4.43
2015	0.42	1.83	2.38	4.63
2016	0.46	1.77	2.47	4.69
2017	0.44	1.92	2.56	4.92
2018	0.39	1.83	2.79	5.02
Growth (2014–2018)	−12%	−7%	45%	16%

Data source: Statistics Norway

Table A2. Number of regional total hotel overnight stays in Norway (in million).

	Eastern Norway	Southern Norway	Western Norway	Central Norway	Northern Norway	Oslo	Total
2005	3.74	3.31	3.47	1.95	1.70	2.94	17.11
2006	3.75	3.32	3.80	2.07	1.73	3.11	17.77
2007	3.97	3.40	4.05	2.17	1.79	3.14	18.53
2008	3.80	3.39	3.97	2.18	1.77	3.11	18.22
2009	3.58	3.21	3.76	2.20	1.77	3.14	17.65
2010	3.70	3.39	3.91	2.22	1.85	3.32	18.39
2011	3.68	3.43	4.19	2.36	2.04	3.51	19.20
2012	3.89	3.42	4.29	2.52	2.10	3.58	19.80
2013	3.88	3.13	4.33	2.51	2.06	3.75	19.67
2014	3.95	3.05	4.43	2.63	2.25	4.01	20.32
2015	4.17	3.21	4.63	2.70	2.44	4.39	21.54
2016	4.37	3.31	4.69	2.83	2.63	4.65	22.48
2017	4.47	3.34	4.92	2.87	2.71	4.82	23.13
2018	4.70	3.36	5.02	2.92	2.72	4.85	23.57
Average share of region/land (2005–2018)	20%	17%	21%	12%	11%	19%	100%

Data source: Statistics Norway

Numbeo.com. (2018). Cost of living index. Retrieved from https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/.

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