Assortative mating, marital stability and the role of business cycles in the United States from 1968 to 2011

Figures & data

Figure 1. Cumulative hazard rate.

Table 1. Business cycle dates.

Peak	Trough	Duration in Months	Severe	Mild	Boom
December, 1969(IV)	November, 1970 (IV)	11		1970	1969
November, 1973(IV)	March, 1975 (I)	16	1974		1973
January, 1980(I)	July, 1980 (III)	6		1980	1979
July, 1981(III)	November, 1982 (IV)	16	1981, 1982
July, 1990(III)	March, 1991(I)	8		1990	1989
March, 2001(I)	November, 2001 (IV)	8		2001
December, 2007 (IV)	June, 2009 (II)	18	2009		2007

Source: NBER Business cycle dates.

Figure 2. Unilateral divorce law adoption by state taken from Rasul (2006).

Years in parentheses correspond to the year of adoption of unilateral divorce law. Coding for year of adoption taken from Friedberg (1998).

Table 2. Summary statistics.

Variable	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min.	Max.	N
Year of marriage	1980.947	9.691	1968	2011	78303
Year of marriage end	2002.161	9.173	1969	2011	78303
Survival time of marriage	9.810	8.497	0	43	78303
Marriage duration	21.171	11.177	1	43	78303
Age:
H > W (−1/4)	0.747	0.435	0	1	72659
H > W (5+)	0.163	0.37	0	1	72659
W > H (2+)	0.089	0.285	0	1	72659
Education:
$\mathit{H}{S}^{-}$	0.085	0.279	0	1	71223
$\mathit{H}{S}^{+}$	0.198	0.398	0	1	71223
SC	0.084	0.277	0	1	71223
$C^{+}$	0.180	0.384	0	1	71223
H > W	0.208	0.406	0	1	71223
W > H	0.245	0.43	0	1	71223
Ethnicity:
Both American+	0.135	0.342	0	1	44934
Both Other national orig.+	0.562	0.496	0	1	44934
Both Racial etc.	0.250	0.433	0	1	44934
Mixed Ethnicity	0.053	0.224	0	1	44934
Religion:
Both Catholics	0.294	0.455	0	1	72199
Both Jewish	0.023	0.151	0	1	72199
Both Other Christian denoms	0.657	0.475	0	1	72199
Both Other religions	0.010	0.099	0	1	72199
Mixed Religion	0.016	0.124	0	1	72199
Year of marriage:
1968–79	0.512	0.5	0	1	78303
1980–89	0.297	0.457	0	1	78303
1990–99	0.133	0.339	0	1	78303
2000–11	0.058	0.234	0	1	78303
Economy:
Severe	0.102	0.302	0	1	78303
Mild	0.1	0.3	0	1	78303
Boom	0.164	0.370	0	1	78303
Region:
North-East	0.162	0.368	0	1	63015
Mid-West	0.234	0.423	0	1	63015
South	0.427	0.495	0	1	63015
West	0.178	0.382	0	1	63015

Table 3. Dissolution risk: baseline results.

	Without any frailty distribution
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Variables	Marital Dissolution
Education: H&W
H > W	0.925	0.921	0.920	0.975	0.914	0.927	0.990
	(0.112)	(0.117)	(0.119)	(0.150)	(0.122)	(0.120)	(0.156)
H < W	1.364***	1.350**	1.364**	1.235	1.375**	1.367***	1.256
	(0.154)	(0.162)	(0.166)	(0.183)	(0.171)	(0.165)	(0.190)
Age: H&W
H > W (5–10 yrs)	1.026	0.935	0.901	0.942	0.952	0.942	0.902
	(0.136)	(0.132)	(0.161)	(0.135)	(0.139)	(0.135)	(0.162)
H > W (11+ yrs)	1.083	1.055	1.031	1.093	1.086	1.089	1.012
	(0.373)	(0.409)	(0.553)	(0.430)	(0.441)	(0.428)	(0.555)
W > H (2–6 yrs)	0.879	0.821	0.671*	0.818	0.805	0.812	0.676*
	(0.144)	(0.144)	(0.156)	(0.146)	(0.148)	(0.145)	(0.160)
W > H (7+ yrs)	0.481	0.468	0.799	0.499	0.475	0.496	0.797
	(0.265)	(0.296)	(0.607)	(0.318)	(0.312)	(0.316)	(0.612)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Other National orig.	1.403	1.331	1.322	1.302	1.101	1.287	1.061
	(0.372)	(0.371)	(0.376)	(0.370)	(0.347)	(0.366)	(0.335)
Both Racial	0.460**	0.389***	0.373***	0.367***	0.325***	0.363***	0.323***
	(0.153)	(0.136)	(0.133)	(0.131)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)
Both Mixed	11.396***	11.461***	11.346***	11.150***	9.640***	11.117***	9.738***
	(2.970)	(3.161)	(3.184)	(3.110)	(2.979)	(3.095)	(3.028)
Religion: H&W
Both Catholic	0.090***	0.076***	0.084***	0.079***	0.073***	0.063***	0.058***
	(0.059)	(0.051)	(0.059)	(0.055)	(0.053)	(0.049)	(0.047)
Both Jewish	0.167*	0.132*	0.144*	0.135*	0.125*	0.072**	0.070**
	(0.167)	(0.138)	(0.154)	(0.144)	(0.139)	(0.084)	(0.086)
Both Other Christian denoms	0.367*	0.304**	0.329*	0.319*	0.274**	0.231**	0.204**
	(0.207)	(0.177)	(0.195)	(0.189)	(0.169)	(0.156)	(0.143)
Both Mixed	1.728	1.771	1.959	1.872	1.815	1.322	1.397
	(0.856)	(0.918)	(1.033)	(0.986)	(0.985)	(0.819)	(0.898)
Economy:
Severe			0.775	0.820	0.531	0.616	0.344
			(0.132)	(0.170)	(0.222)	(0.531)	(0.334)
Mild			1.277*	1.173	1.114	1.069	0.834
			(0.187)	(0.229)	(0.432)	(1.173)	(0.970)
Boom			0.437***	0.455***	0.216***	0.151*	0.074**
			(0.072)	(0.091)	(0.097)	(0.167)	(0.088)
Interactions
Severe*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)			1.192				1.283
			(0.481)				(0.525)
Severe*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)			0.873				0.873
			(0.997)				(1.004)
Severe*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)			2.077*				2.122*
			(0.866)				(0.906)
Severe*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)			0.916				0.867
			(1.139)				(1.095)
Mild*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)			0.520				0.540
			(0.239)				(0.250)
Mild*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)			2.136				2.258
			(1.880)				(2.004)
Mild*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)			1.154				1.225
			(0.553)				(0.596)
Mild*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)			0.000				0.000
			(0.004)				(0.003)
Boom*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)			1.694				1.678
			(0.574)				(0.576)
Boom*Age: H > W (11+yrs)			0.742				0.717
			(0.842)				(0.817)
Boom*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)			1.447				1.232
			(0.636)				(0.561)
Boom*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)			0.000				0.000
			(0.000)				(0.000)
Severe*Educ: H > W				0.829			0.789
				(0.301)			(0.293)
Severe*Educ: W > H				1.277			1.283
				(0.382)			(0.393)
Mild*Educ: H > W				0.736			0.746
				(0.270)			(0.276)
Mild*Educ: W > H				1.303			1.402
				(0.378)			(0.414)
Boom*Educ: H > W				0.981			0.877
				(0.324)			(0.296)
Boom*Educ: W > H				1.219			1.061
				(0.352)			(0.313)
Severe*Ethnic: Both National orig.					1.587		1.698
					(0.707)		(0.766)
Severe*Ethnic: Both Racial etc					1.282		1.188
					(0.782)		(0.733)
Severe*Ethnic: Both Mixed					2.294		2.171
					(1.263)		(1.213)
Mild*Ethnic: Both National orig.					1.320		1.397
					(0.564)		(0.608)
Mild*Ethnic: Both Racial etc					0.854		0.856
					(0.529)		(0.532)
Mild*Ethnic: Both Mixed					0.859		0.869
					(0.394)		(0.404)
Boom*Ethnic: Both National orig.					1.840		1.949
					(0.870)		(0.932)
Boom*Ethnic: Both Racial etc					2.387		2.473
					(1.391)		(1.443)
Boom*Ethnic: Both Mixed					5.582***		5.351***
					(2.893)		(2.824)
Severe*Religion: Both Catholic						1.265	1.142
						(1.187)	(1.084)
Severe*Religion: Both Jewish						7.195*	7.506*
						(8.364)	(8.863)
Severe*Religion: Both Christian denoms.						1.338	1.286
						(1.168)	(1.136)
Severe*Religion: Both Mixed						1.388	0.944
						(1.593)	(1.119)
Mild*Religion: Both Catholic						1.201	1.169
						(1.399)	(1.369)
Mild*Religion: Both Jewish						1.568	1.866
						(2.462)	(2.946)
Mild*Religion: Both Christian denoms.						1.136	1.314
						(1.259)	(1.466)
Mild*Religion: Both Mixed						1.011	1.098
						(1.188)	(1.305)
Boom*Religion: Both Catholic						2.339	2.128
						(2.744)	(2.509)
Boom*Religion: Both Jewish						0.000	0.000
						(0.000)	(0.000)
Boom*Religion: Both Christian denoms.						3.294	2.771
						(3.672)	(3.106)
Boom*Religion: Both Mixed						6.742	3.816
						(8.189)	(4.720)
Wife’s Characteristics
Age: 20–29	0.683***	0.670***	0.673***	0.677***	0.665***	0.675***	0.661***
	(0.079)	(0.081)	(0.082)	(0.083)	(0.084)	(0.083)	(0.084)
Age: 30–39	0.627**	0.677*	0.684*	0.684*	0.675*	0.687*	0.668*
	(0.129)	(0.151)	(0.154)	(0.155)	(0.157)	(0.155)	(0.155)
Age: 40+	1.058	2.178	2.308	2.294	2.483*	2.289	2.460*
	(0.521)	(1.091)	(1.176)	(1.167)	(1.300)	(1.165)	(1.289)
Educ: HS+	0.789	0.786	0.777	0.778	0.789	0.784	0.790
	(0.143)	(0.149)	(0.150)	(0.149)	(0.157)	(0.151)	(0.157)
Educ: SC	0.658**	0.666**	0.657**	0.660**	0.669*	0.661**	0.671*
	(0.129)	(0.137)	(0.137)	(0.138)	(0.145)	(0.138)	(0.146)
Educ: C+	0.374***	0.369***	0.364***	0.366***	0.365***	0.369***	0.365***
	(0.081)	(0.086)	(0.086)	(0.087)	(0.091)	(0.087)	(0.091)
Ethnic: Other national orig.	1.027	1.111	1.141	1.149	1.158	1.157	1.171
	(0.229)	(0.263)	(0.277)	(0.279)	(0.295)	(0.280)	(0.298)
Ethnic: Hispanic orig	0.239**	0.279**	0.277**	0.278**	0.274*	0.280*	0.273*
	(0.152)	(0.180)	(0.181)	(0.181)	(0.181)	(0.182)	(0.181)
Ethnic: Racial	1.003	1.118	1.156	1.177	1.146	1.181	1.146
	(0.280)	(0.325)	(0.345)	(0.351)	(0.359)	(0.352)	(0.359)
Ethnic: Others	2.131**	2.084*	2.293**	2.284**	2.168*	2.279**	2.239*
	(0.786)	(0.826)	(0.927)	(0.922)	(0.912)	(0.920)	(0.942)
Religion: Catholic	0.799	0.671	0.685	0.686	0.686	0.714	0.664
	(0.711)	(0.614)	(0.646)	(0.646)	(0.681)	(0.674)	(0.661)
Religion: Jewish	0.418*	0.447	0.464	0.450	0.486	0.470	0.486
	(0.206)	(0.229)	(0.244)	(0.236)	(0.266)	(0.246)	(0.267)
Religion: Other Christian denoms.	0.197***	0.196***	0.228**	0.216***	0.207***	0.219***	0.202***
	(0.105)	(0.110)	(0.132)	(0.125)	(0.126)	(0.126)	(0.124)
No. of children		0.996	0.992	0.994	0.991	0.994	0.990
		(0.044)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.046)
Unilateral Divorce	1.491	1.573*	1.629*	1.624*	1.687*	1.636*	1.704*
	(0.396)	(0.426)	(0.446)	(0.444)	(0.474)	(0.448)	(0.479)
Baseline hazard parameters ()	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Year of marriage fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
State fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Couple-years: N	43,764	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222
Number of couples	3,520	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012
Log likelihood	−2672	−2459	−2435	−2440	−2431	−2436	−2419

Table 4. Dissolution risk: Gaussian frailty.

	Gaussian Frailty Distribution
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Variables	Marital Dissolution
Education: H&W
H > W	0.921	0.920	0.975	0.914	0.927	0.990
	(0.117)	(0.119)	(0.150)	(0.122)	(0.120)	(0.156)
H < W	1.350**	1.364**	1.235	1.375**	1.367***	1.256
	(0.162)	(0.166)	(0.183)	(0.171)	(0.165)	(0.190)
Age: H&W
H > W (5–10 yrs)	0.935	0.901	0.942	0.952	0.942	0.902
	(0.132)	(0.161)	(0.135)	(0.139)	(0.135)	(0.162)
H > W (11+ yrs)	1.055	1.031	1.093	1.086	1.089	1.012
	(0.409)	(0.553)	(0.430)	(0.441)	(0.428)	(0.555)
W > H (2–6 yrs)	0.821	0.671*	0.818	0.805	0.812	0.676*
	(0.144)	(0.156)	(0.146)	(0.148)	(0.145)	(0.160)
W > H (7+ yrs)	0.468	0.799	0.499	0.475	0.496	0.797
	(0.296)	(0.607)	(0.318)	(0.312)	(0.316)	(0.612)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Other National orig.	1.331	1.322	1.302	1.101	1.287	1.061
	(0.371)	(0.376)	(0.370)	(0.347)	(0.366)	(0.335)
Both Racial	0.389***	0.373***	0.367***	0.325***	0.363***	0.323***
	(0.136)	(0.133)	(0.131)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)
Both Mixed	11.461***	11.346***	11.150***	9.640***	11.117***	9.738***
	(3.161)	(3.184)	(3.110)	(2.979)	(3.095)	(3.028)
Religion: H&W
Both Catholic	0.076***	0.084***	0.079***	0.073***	0.063***	0.058***
	(0.051)	(0.059)	(0.055)	(0.053)	(0.049)	(0.047)
Both Jewish	0.132*	0.144*	0.135*	0.125*	0.072**	0.070**
	(0.138)	(0.154)	(0.144)	(0.139)	(0.084)	(0.086)
Both Other Christian denoms	0.304**	0.329*	0.319*	0.274**	0.231**	0.204**
	(0.177)	(0.195)	(0.189)	(0.169)	(0.156)	(0.143)
Both Mixed	1.771	1.959	1.872	1.815	1.322	1.397
	(0.918)	(1.033)	(0.986)	(0.985)	(0.819)	(0.898)
Economy:
Severe		0.775	0.820	0.531	0.616	0.344
		(0.132)	(0.170)	(0.222)	(0.531)	(0.334)
Mild		1.277*	1.173	1.114	1.069	0.834
		(0.187)	(0.229)	(0.432)	(1.173)	(0.970)
Boom		0.437***	0.455***	0.216***	0.151*	0.074**
		(0.072)	(0.091)	(0.097)	(0.167)	(0.088)
Interactions:
Severe*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		1.192				1.283
		(0.481)				(0.525)
Severe*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)		0.873				0.873
		(0.997)				(1.004)
Severe*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		2.077*				2.122*
		(0.866)				(0.906)
Severe*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)		0.916				0.867
		(1.139)				(1.095)
Mild*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		0.520				0.540
		(0.239)				(0.250)
Mild*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)		2.136				2.258
		(1.880)				(2.004)
Mild*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		1.154				1.225
		(0.553)				(0.596)
Mild*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)		0.000				0.000
		(0.004)				(0.003)
Boom*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		1.694				1.678
		(0.574)				(0.576)
Boom*Age: H > W (11+yrs)		0.742				0.717
		(0.842)				(0.817)
Boom*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		1.447				1.232
		(0.636)				(0.561)
Boom*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)		0.000				0.000
		(0.000)				(0.000)
Severe*Educ: H > W			0.829			0.789
			(0.301)			(0.293)
Severe*Educ: W > H			1.277			1.283
			(0.382)			(0.393)
Mild*Educ: H > W			0.736			0.746
			(0.270)			(0.276)
Mild*Educ: W > H			1.303			1.402
			(0.378)			(0.414)
Boom*Educ: H > W			0.981			0.877
			(0.324)			(0.296)
Boom*Educ: W > H			1.219			1.061
			(0.352)			(0.313)
Severe*Ethnic: Both National orig.				1.587		1.698
				(0.707)		(0.766)
Severe*Ethnic: Both Racial etc				1.282		1.188
				(0.782)		(0.733)
Severe*Ethnic: Both Mixed				2.294		2.171
				(1.263)		(1.213)
Mild*Ethnic: Both National orig.				1.320		1.397
				(0.564)		(0.608)
Mild*Ethnic: Both Racial etc				0.854		0.856
				(0.529)		(0.532)
Mild*Ethnic: Both Mixed				0.859		0.869
				(0.394)		(0.404)
Boom*Ethnic: Both National orig.				1.840		1.949
				(0.870)		(0.932)
Boom*Ethnic: Both Racial etc				2.387		2.473
				(1.391)		(1.443)
Boom*Ethnic: Both Mixed				5.582***		5.351***
				(2.893)		(2.824)
Severe*Religion: Both Catholic					1.265	1.142
					(1.187)	(1.084)
Severe*Religion: Both Jewish					7.195*	7.506*
					(8.364)	(8.863)
Severe*Religion: Both Christian denoms.					1.338	1.286
					(1.168)	(1.136)
Severe*Religion: Both Mixed					1.388	0.944
					(1.593)	(1.119)
Mild*Religion: Both Catholic					1.201	1.169
					(1.399)	(1.369)
Mild*Religion: Both Jewish					1.568	1.866
					(2.462)	(2.946)
Mild*Religion: Both Christian denoms.					1.136	1.314
					(1.259)	(1.466)
Mild*Religion: Both Mixed					1.011	1.098
					(1.188)	(1.305)
Boom*Religion: Both Catholic					2.339	2.128
					(2.744)	(2.509)
Boom*Religion: Both Jewish					0.000	0.000
					(0.000)	(0.000)
Boom*Religion: Both Christian denoms.					3.294	2.771
					(3.672)	(3.106)
Boom*Religion: Both Mixed					6.742	3.816
					(8.189)	(4.720)
Wife’s Characteristics
Age: 20–29	0.670***	0.673***	0.677***	0.665***	0.675***	0.661***
	(0.081)	(0.082)	(0.083)	(0.084)	(0.083)	(0.084)
Age: 30–39	0.677*	0.684*	0.684*	0.675*	0.687*	0.668*
	(0.151)	(0.154)	(0.155)	(0.157)	(0.155)	(0.155)
Age: 40+	2.178	2.308	2.294	2.483*	2.289	2.460*
	(1.091)	(1.176)	(1.167)	(1.300)	(1.165)	(1.289)
Educ: HS+	0.786	0.777	0.778	0.789	0.784	0.790
	(0.149)	(0.150)	(0.149)	(0.157)	(0.151)	(0.157)
Educ: SC	0.666**	0.657**	0.660**	0.669*	0.661**	0.671*
	(0.137)	(0.137)	(0.138)	(0.145)	(0.138)	(0.146)
Educ: C+	0.369***	0.364***	0.366***	0.365***	0.369***	0.365***
	(0.086)	(0.086)	(0.087)	(0.091)	(0.087)	(0.091)
Ethnic: Other national orig.	1.111	1.141	1.149	1.158	1.157	1.171
	(0.263)	(0.277)	(0.279)	(0.295)	(0.280)	(0.298)
Ethnic: Hispanic orig	0.279**	0.277**	0.278**	0.274*	0.280*	0.273*
	(0.180)	(0.181)	(0.181)	(0.181)	(0.182)	(0.181)
Ethnic: Racial	1.118	1.156	1.177	1.146	1.181	1.146
	(0.325)	(0.345)	(0.351)	(0.359)	(0.352)	(0.359)
Ethnic: Others	2.084*	2.293**	2.284**	2.168*	2.279**	2.239*
	(0.826)	(0.927)	(0.922)	(0.912)	(0.920)	(0.942)
Religion: Catholic	0.671	0.685	0.686	0.686	0.714	0.664
	(0.614)	(0.646)	(0.646)	(0.681)	(0.674)	(0.661)
Religion: Jewish	0.447	0.464	0.450	0.486	0.470	0.486
	(0.229)	(0.244)	(0.236)	(0.266)	(0.246)	(0.267)
Religion: Other Christian denoms.	0.196***	0.228**	0.216***	0.207***	0.219***	0.202***
	(0.110)	(0.132)	(0.125)	(0.126)	(0.126)	(0.124)
No. of children	0.996	0.992	0.994	0.991	0.994	0.990
	(0.044)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.046)
Unilateral Divorce	1.573*	1.629*	1.624*	1.687*	1.636*	1.704*
	(0.426)	(0.446)	(0.444)	(0.474)	(0.448)	(0.479)
Baseline hazard parameters ()	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Year of marriage fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
State fixed effects	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Couple-years: N	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222
Number of couples	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012
Log likelihood	−2459	−2435	−2440	−2431	−2436	−2419
LR test of $\mathit{\rho }$ = 0	1.157	1.908	1.909	2.886	1.915	2.843

Table 5. Dissolution risk: gamma frailty distribution.

	Gamma Frailty Distribution
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Variables	Dissolution hazard
Education: H&W
H > W	0.936	0.936	0.981
	(0.117)	(0.116)	(0.146)
H < W	1.316*	1.331**	1.200
	(0.199)	(0.153)	(0.172)
Age: H&W
H > W (5–10 yrs)	0.918	0.884	0.929
	(0.158)	(0.154)	(0.131)
H > W (11+ yrs)	1.051	1.008	1.081
	(0.394)	(0.525)	(0.407)
W > H (2–6 yrs)	0.841	0.690*	0.835
	(0.142)	(0.155)	(0.143)
W > H (7+ yrs)	0.465	0.781	0.499
	(0.308)	(0.580)	(0.310)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Other National orig.	1.311	1.307	1.285
	(0.346)	(0.349)	(0.344)
Both Racial	0.408***	0.395***	0.388***
	(0.135)	(0.133)	(0.131)
Both Mixed	10.412***	10.335***	10.185***
	(3.838)	(2.589)	(2.611)
Religion: H&W
Both Catholic	0.074***	0.083***	0.079***
	(0.047)	(0.054)	(0.051)
Both Jewish	0.124**	0.135**	0.128**
	(0.123)	(0.135)	(0.127)
Both Other Christian denoms	0.323*	0.347*	0.335*
	(0.187)	(0.193)	(0.187)
Both Mixed	1.577	1.743	1.673
	(0.883)	(0.873)	(0.843)
Economy:
Severe		0.791	0.835
		(0.134)	(0.172)
Mild		1.233	1.102
		(0.183)	(0.220)
Boom		0.448***	0.464***
		(0.074)	(0.093)
Interactions:
Severe*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		1.203
		(0.483)
Severe*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)		0.886
		(1.008)
Severe*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		2.041*
		(0.842)
Severe*Age: H < W (7+yrs)		0.937
		(1.164)
Mild*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		0.539
		(0.248)
Mild*Age: H > W (11+ yrs)		2.170
		(1.908)
Mild*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		1.186
		(0.568)
Mild*Age: H < W (7+yrs)		0.000
		(0.001)
Boom*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		1.716
		(0.577)
Boom*Age: H > W (11+yrs)		0.754
		(0.853)
Boom*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		1.420
		(0.619)
Boom*Age: H < W (7+yrs)		0.000
		(0.000)
Severe*Educ: H > W			0.837
			(0.302)
Severe*Educ: W > H			1.278
			(0.380)
Mild*Educ: H > W			0.789
			(0.291)
Mild*Educ: W > H			1.373
			(0.402)
Boom*Educ: H > W			0.988
			(0.325)
Boom*Educ: W > H			1.226
			(0.352)
Wife’s Characteristics
Age: 20–29	0.676***	0.678***	0.684***
	(0.080)	(0.078)	(0.079)
Age: 30–39	0.690	0.697*	0.697*
	(0.156)	(0.151)	(0.152)
Age: 40+	2.231*	2.365*	2.350*
	(1.087)	(1.160)	(1.151)
Educ: HS+	0.808	0.799	0.800
	(0.149)	(0.147)	(0.148)
Educ: SC	0.711	0.702*	0.703*
	(0.169)	(0.140)	(0.141)
Educ: C+	0.404***	0.399***	0.400***
	(0.111)	(0.088)	(0.089)
Ethnic: Other national orig.	1.108	1.133	1.142
	(0.243)	(0.255)	(0.257)
Ethnic: Hispanic orig	0.292*	0.291*	0.291*
	(0.185)	(0.185)	(0.185)
Ethnic: Racial	1.110	1.134	1.156
	(0.310)	(0.316)	(0.323)
Ethnic: Others	1.762	1.951*	1.945*
	(0.808)	(0.765)	(0.767)
Religion: Catholic	0.713	0.729	0.730
	(0.604)	(0.627)	(0.628)
Religion: Jewish	0.406	0.430*	0.420*
	(0.235)	(0.211)	(0.207)
Religion: Other Christian denoms	0.192***	0.225***	0.214***
	(0.104)	(0.119)	(0.114)
No. of children	0.997	0.994	0.996
	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.044)
Unilateral Divorce	1.527	1.584*	1.581*
	(0.423)	(0.416)	(0.417)
Baseline hazard parameters ()	✓	✓	✓
Year of marriage fixed effects	✓	✓	✓
State fixed effects	✓	✓	✓
Couple-years: N	40,222	40,222	40,222
Log likelihood	−2449	−2427	−2431
LR test of Gamma var = 0	20.71	18.50	18.72

Table 6. Dissolution risk: I.

	Without any frailty distribution
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Variables	Marital Dissolution
Education: H&W
Both: HS+	1.209	1.198	1.191	1.153	1.200	1.199	1.151
	(0.364)	(0.369)	(0.369)	(0.379)	(0.375)	(0.371)	(0.383)
Both: SC	1.074	1.011	1.007	1.002	1.012	1.012	0.997
	(0.335)	(0.326)	(0.327)	(0.346)	(0.331)	(0.328)	(0.347)
Both: C+	0.433***	0.425***	0.428**	0.484**	0.430**	0.433**	0.467**
	(0.138)	(0.140)	(0.142)	(0.169)	(0.144)	(0.143)	(0.165)
H > W	1.043	1.027	1.026	1.040	1.026	1.035	1.037
	(0.312)	(0.315)	(0.316)	(0.340)	(0.319)	(0.318)	(0.342)
W > H	1.064	1.049	1.048	1.048	1.057	1.056	1.054
	(0.313)	(0.317)	(0.319)	(0.339)	(0.325)	(0.321)	(0.344)
Age: H&W
H > W (5–10 yrs)	1.074	0.990	0.906	0.992	0.992	0.992	0.915
	(0.136)	(0.134)	(0.136)	(0.135)	(0.137)	(0.135)	(0.138)
H > W (11+ yrs)	1.071	1.127	1.244	1.159	1.152	1.166	1.234
	(0.361)	(0.427)	(0.507)	(0.441)	(0.444)	(0.444)	(0.507)
W > H (2–6 yrs)	0.790	0.746*	0.717*	0.748*	0.740*	0.746*	0.729*
	(0.123)	(0.125)	(0.131)	(0.126)	(0.126)	(0.125)	(0.134)
W > H (7+ yrs)	0.486	0.497	0.668	0.512	0.509	0.519	0.678
	(0.256)	(0.311)	(0.425)	(0.321)	(0.325)	(0.326)	(0.433)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Other National orig.	1.458***	1.489***	1.500***	1.503***	1.426**	1.491***	1.413**
	(0.213)	(0.229)	(0.232)	(0.232)	(0.233)	(0.230)	(0.231)
Both Racial	0.509***	0.466***	0.465***	0.466***	0.415***	0.465***	0.413***
	(0.095)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.090)	(0.093)	(0.089)
Mixed Ethnicity	11.451***	12.018***	11.932***	11.920***	10.592***	11.861***	10.681***
	(2.174)	(2.468)	(2.496)	(2.471)	(2.326)	(2.474)	(2.367)
Religion: H&W
Both Jewish	2.108**	1.672	1.682	1.657	1.676	1.825	1.795
	(0.752)	(0.689)	(0.698)	(0.685)	(0.699)	(0.764)	(0.758)
Both Other Christian denoms	1.858***	1.985***	2.004***	2.000***	2.004***	1.911***	1.960***
	(0.270)	(0.309)	(0.314)	(0.313)	(0.316)	(0.316)	(0.328)
Both Other religions (Hindu, Muslims)	2.254**	2.679***	2.784***	2.773***	2.848***	3.194***	3.212***
	(0.835)	(1.016)	(1.061)	(1.056)	(1.093)	(1.287)	(1.306)
Mixed Religion	7.389***	9.319***	9.749***	9.580***	9.906***	8.670***	9.620***
	(2.058)	(2.821)	(2.971)	(2.902)	(3.063)	(2.711)	(3.096)
Boom			0.453***	0.513	0.265***	0.181	0.104
			(0.069)	(0.392)	(0.115)	(0.193)	(0.145)
Interactions:
Boom*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)			1.710*				1.674
			(0.557)				(0.555)
Boom*Age: H > W (11+yrs)			0.662				0.665
			(0.717)				(0.729)
Boom*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)			1.315				1.109
			(0.549)				(0.480)
Boom*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)			0.000				0.000
			(0.000)				(0.000)
Boom*Both HS+				1.313			1.309
				(1.058)			(1.095)
Boom*Both SC				1.038			1.056
				(0.871)			(0.920)
Boom*Both C+				0.407			0.466
				(0.365)			(0.431)
Boom*H> W				0.939			0.910
				(0.758)			(0.761)
Boom*W> H				1.022			0.954
				(0.809)			(0.783)
Boom*Both Other Nat. orig.					1.527		1.692
					(0.704)		(0.790)
Boom*Both racial					2.185		2.270
					(1.240)		(1.292)
Boom*Mixed Ethnicity					4.584***		4.448***
					(2.296)		(2.288)
Boom*Both Catholics						2.103	2.034
						(2.376)	(2.313)
Boom*Both Jewish						0.000	0.000
						(0.000)	(0.000)
Boom*Both other Christians						2.821	2.435
						(3.027)	(2.621)
Boom*Mixed Religion						5.929	2.988
						(6.950)	(3.582)
No. of children		1.014	1.013	1.013	1.011	1.014	1.012
		(0.044)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
Unilateral Divorce	1.369	1.416	1.458	1.461	1.477	1.451	1.482
	(0.355)	(0.376)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.399)	(0.387)	(0.401)
Baseline hazard parameters ()	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Baseline parameters	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Year of Marriage FE’s	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
State FE’s	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Couple-years: N	43,764	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222	40,222
Number of couples	3,520	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012	3,012
Log likelihood	−2695	−2483	−2464	−2464	−2459	−2464	−2453

Table 7. Dissolution risk II.

	Without Ethnicity		Include Ethnicity
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Variables		Marital Dissolution
Education: H&W
Both: HS+	1.279	1.244	1.216	1.164
	(0.250)	(0.247)	(0.364)	(0.374)
Both: SC	1.292	1.268	1.079	1.073
	(0.275)	(0.276)	(0.335)	(0.358)
Both: C+	0.383***	0.427***	0.434***	0.468**
	(0.087)	(0.098)	(0.137)	(0.158)
H > W	1.077	1.042	1.045	1.033
	(0.210)	(0.208)	(0.310)	(0.330)
W > H	1.246	1.222	1.065	1.053
	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.312)	(0.332)
Age: H&W
H > W (5–10 yrs)	0.895	0.888	1.073	1.021
	(0.102)	(0.105)	(0.135)	(0.141)
H > W (11+ yrs)	1.385	1.357	1.079	0.999
	(0.396)	(0.405)	(0.361)	(0.380)
W > H (2–6 yrs)	0.974	0.998	0.790	0.769
	(0.135)	(0.142)	(0.122)	(0.130)
W > H (7+ yrs)	0.876	1.081	0.481	0.641
	(0.329)	(0.404)	(0.252)	(0.340)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Other National orig.			1.456***	1.409**
			(0.212)	(0.219)
Both Racial			0.512***	0.472***
			(0.095)	(0.094)
Both Mixed			11.281***	10.069***
			(2.106)	(2.024)
Religion: H&W
Both Jewish	1.629	1.737	2.132**	2.368**
	(0.554)	(0.586)	(0.756)	(0.861)
Both Other Christian denoms	2.001***	1.963***	1.847***	1.872***
	(0.238)	(0.238)	(0.267)	(0.292)
Both Other religions (Hindu, Muslims)	1.396	1.556	2.235**	2.713**
	(0.528)	(0.609)	(0.825)	(1.072)
Both Mixed	16.389***	15.130***	7.315***	7.479***
	(4.276)	(3.900)	(2.012)	(2.171)
Boom		0.235		0.108
		(0.281)		(0.150)
Interactions:
Boom*Age: H > W (5–10 yrs)		1.096		1.428
		(0.310)		(0.464)
Boom*Age: H > W (11+yrs)		1.239		1.555
		(0.818)		(1.283)
Boom*Age: H < W (2–6 yrs)		0.815		1.130
		(0.295)		(0.462)
Boom*Age: H < W (7+ yrs)		0.000		0.000
		(0.000)		(0.000)
Boom*Both HS+		1.204		1.364
		(0.700)		(1.144)
Boom*Both SC		1.099		1.032
		(0.670)		(0.902)
Boom*Both C+		0.445		0.558
		(0.306)		(0.506)
Boom*H > W		1.278		1.054
		(0.739)		(0.880)
Boom*W > H		1.097		1.088
		(0.621)		(0.894)
Boom*Both Other Nat. orig.				1.445
				(0.630)
Boom*Both racial				1.749
				(0.947)
Boom*Both mixed				3.933***
				(1.920)
Boom*Both Catholics		1.985		2.346
		(2.186)		(2.638)
Boom*Both Jewish		0.000		0.000
		(0.000)		(0.000)
Boom*Both other Christians		2.209		2.324
		(2.363)		(2.497)
Boom*Both mixed		3.055		3.534
		(3.517)		(4.231)
Year of Marriage:
1980–89	4.045***	4.129***	2.743***	3.032***
	(0.541)	(0.553)	(0.372)	(0.431)
1990–99	7.688***	8.251***	9.241***	11.638***
	(1.189)	(1.293)	(1.434)	(2.017)
2000–11	8.198***	10.982***	14.713***	24.158***
	(1.377)	(1.925)	(2.704)	(5.041)
Baseline parameters	✓	✓	✓	✓
State FE’s	✓	✓	✓	✓
Couple-years: N	70,114	70,114	43,764	43,764
Number of couples	5,658	5,658	3,520	3,520
Log likelihood	−4963	−4935	−2696	−2663

Table 8. Dissolution risk III.

Education: H&W
Both HS+	1.380
	(0.838)
Both SC	1.350
	(0.867)
Both C+	0.817
	(0.560)
H> W	1.353
	(0.829)
W> H	1.345
	(0.804)
Age: H&W
H> W (5–10 yrs)	1.220
	(0.352)
H> W (11+ yrs)	3.480**
	(2.036)
W> H (2–6 yrs)	0.759
	(0.280)
W> H (7+ yrs)	1.067
	(1.220)
Ethnicity: H&W
Both Migrants (other national orig)	4.651***
	(1.528)
Both Mixed	23.055***
	(15.445)
Religion: H&W
Both Jewish	6.039**
	(4.870)
Both Other Christ. Denoms	1.964*
	(0.691)
Both other religions(Hindu, Muslims)	1.380
	(1.532)
Both Mixed	16.274***
	(12.510)
Boom	1.414
	(2.681)
Interactions
Boom*Both HS+	1.786
	(2.175)
Boom*Both SC	1.937
	(2.406)
Boom*Both C+	0.977
	(1.291)
Boom*H> W	2.202
	(2.649)
Boom*W> H	2.174
	(2.582)
Boom*H> W (5–10 yrs)	1.889
	(0.831)
Boom*W> H(2–6 yrs)	0.909
	(0.531)
Boom*Both Americans	0.301**
	(0.175)
Boom*Both migrants (other nat. orig)	0.165***
	(0.082)
Boom*Religion: Catholic	0.873
	(1.352)
Boom*Religion: Other Chris. Denoms	0.774
	(1.144)
Boom*Religion: Mixed	1.178
	(1.966)
Number of children	1.018
	(0.082)
Household income	1.000***
	(0.000)
Unilateral Divorce	1.786
	(0.795)
Baseline hazard	✓
Year of marriage Fe’s	✓
State Fe’s	✓
Couple-years: N	23,328
Number of couples	2,657
Log-likelihood	−913.7

Table A1. Sample selection.

Selection criteria	Obs (couple-years)	couples
First marriages	78,303	6,537
Non-missing ethnicity	44,934	3,644
Non-missing on controls	24,515	2,741

In the PSID survey, information on race is available from 1968 but only for heads of households, not their spouses (information for spouses start in 1985), with over 40% non-response. The variable on primary ethnic group in the PSID survey has better response rates for both head and spouses since 1997. Further questions in the survey that probe responses to ethnicity (for example first mention of ethnicity, second mention etc) drive the non-response rate very high with more than 80% as missing and 17.9% identifying as Americans. An even higher non-response for spouses is observed with over 90% non-response for spouses of heads of households. Therefore, a potential way to use information on ethnicity for both, heads of households and their spouses was to rely on information collected about ethnicity starting from 1997 onwards. These questions and their responses obtained are recorded as follows.

And what is your primary ethnic group? (for heads of households).

And what is her primary ethnic group? (for spouse).

Table

Count	%	Value/Range	Text
342	5.07	1	American
939	13.92	2	Hyphenated American (e.g., African-American, Mexican-American)
2,736	40.55	3	National origin (e.g., French, German, Dutch, Iranian, Scots-Irish)
121	1.79	4	Nonspecific Hispanic identify (e.g., Chicano, Latino)
2,099	31.11	5	Racial (e.g., white or Caucasian, black)
116	1.72	6	Religious (e.g., Jewish, Roman, Catholic, Baptist)
41	.61	7	Other (e.g., “a mutt”, “Heinz 57”, “good old boy”, “hillbilly”)
-	-	8	DK
353	5.23	9	NA; refused

Rasul, I. (2006). Marriage markets and divorce laws. Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, 22(1), 30–69. https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/ewj008

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