Trade policies in Central Asia after EAEU enlargement and after Russian WTO accession: regionalism and integration into the world economy revisited

Figures & data

Table 1. Trade between CARs and CIS, 2009–2019%).

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total
KAZ	26.2	30.4	16.7	20.1	18.0	30.7	30.5	35.7	21.0	31.2	30.9
KGZ	53.5	50.7	48.4	51.0	49.6	48.7	50.5	39.3	45.2	45.6	46.6
TJK		42.9	43.0	42.9	40.3	43.9	45.0	47.8	51.5	54.5	55.5
UZB	36.8	40.9	41.0	46.6	40.3	38.6	31.9	28.3	29.3	30.7	29.0
Exports
KAZ	15.3	14.7	13.3	11.3	10.1	11.5	18.4	21.9	14.4	18.8	19.4
KGZ	46.8	43.5	41.5	54.2	51.0	51.2	41.0	32.7	41.6	46.9	43.7
TJK		13.4	14.1	17.4	18.3	25.1	25.2	32.8	36.0	49.6	38.5
UZB	32.2	42.4	43.6	55.3	44.9	41.6	32.4	25.8	28.7	29.7	29.5
Imports
KAZ	42.6	56.2	49.1	41.0	34.4	39.5	47.5	53.33	34.0	52.3	46.9
KGZ	55.9	53.4	51.3	50.0	49.3	48.0	53.5	41.6	46.5	45.2	47.8
TJK		56.3	54.5	52.3	45.6	48.1	50.1	52.3	58.2	56.2	61.4
UZB	41.6	38.9	37.7	37.2	35.6	35.7	31.4	30.8	29.8	31.4	28.6

Source: UN (United Nations) (2022), NBT (National Bank of Tajikistan) (2022), State Committee on Statistics (State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics) (2022).

Table 2. Trade between CARs and China, 2009–2019%).

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total
KAZ	13.4	14.7	19.1	18.9	18.7	25.9	13.3	11.6	15.3	11.8	14.5
KGZ	15.9	15.8	16.0	18.2	19.7	16.9	19.9	29.7	25.7	28.2	26.3
TJK		17.7	14.8	13.0	13.8	14.5	18.3	22.5	14.8	15.4	14.6
UZB	9.6	9.8	10.2	12.7	15.9	16.4	18.9	17.5	17.8	19.2	18.2
Exports
KAZ	13.9	17.1	18.9	18.5	17.5	12.7	11.8	11.1	12.7	10.1	13.5
KGZ	1.8	2.4	2.3	3.7	2.5	2.0	2.7	5.8	5.6	3.3	4.1
TJK		37.4	20.2	13.3	9.1	3.9	3.2	4.9	2.9	5.3	4.7
UZB	4.1	7.1	8.6	10.7	14.3	15.6	19.7	16.5	16.1	20.5	14.4
Imports
KAZ	12.7	10.9	14.2	19.9	21.2	18.9	15.4	12.3	20.4	14.8	15.9
KGZ	20.9	20.8	21.8	22.6	24.0	21.2	25.4	38.2	33.4	36.8	35.1
TJK		8.9	12.7	12.9	15.0	16.9	22.2	27.7	20.0	18.8	18.0
UZB	16.5	13.6	12.3	14.7	17.6	17.1	18.1	18.5	19.4	18.3	21.0

Source: UN (United Nations) (2022), NBT (National Bank of Tajikistan) (2022), State Committee on Statistics (State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics) (2022).

Figure 1. Total trade of Tajikistan with the EAEU members, log, 2010–2019.

Source: NBT (National Bank of Tajikistan) (2022).

Figure 2. Total trade of Uzbekistan with China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey, log, 2000–2019.

Source: State Committee on Statistics (State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics) (2022).

Table 3. Trade between CARs and CU/EAEU, 2010–2019%).

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total
KAZ	34.3	11.3	14.2	10.5	13.8	29.9	26.0	14.6	37.1	25.9
KGZ	45.0	41.9	44.5	43.0	41.9	45.0	34.0	38.8	39.5	39.7
TJK	26.2	24.7	22.2	19.0	24.1	43.3	44.7	46.9	46.4	46.2
UZB	28.3	26.3	30.3	24.1	21.9	29.6	26.3	27.1	28.1	26.7
Exports
KAZ	13.9	10.9	5.3	4.0	5.7	7.5	13.0	9.5	18.2	12.0
KGZ	37.9	32.3	39.3	36.2	35.9	30.8	21.7	31.4	35.2	32.8
TJK	10.7	10.6	15.8	16.3	23.7	24.2	28.5	30.8	34.7	23.5
UZB	38.9	40.6	50.3	38.7	37.3	30.3	23.8	26.1	27.0	26.6
Imports
KAZ	50.3	41.0	29.8	24.9	32.2	42.3	49.0	27.2	47.1	43.8
KGZ	51.7	60.9	58.2	49.7	41.4	35.4	36.3	48.6	48.3	39.8
TJK	44.9	45.0	43.2	37.2	44.2	48.2	49.5	53.8	50.4	54.2
UZB	33.7	32.1	31.3	31.6	31.9	29.0	28.7	28.1	28.9	26.8

Source: UN (United Nations) (2022), NBT (National Bank of Tajikistan) (2022), State Committee on Statistics (State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics) (2022).

Table 4. Status of WTO accession negotiations.

Country	Applied	Working Parties	Accession
Kazakhstan	29/01/1996	20 meetings (1997–2015)	November 2015^a)
Kyrgyz Republic	13/02/1996	6 meetings (1997–1998)	December 1998
Russia	04/06/1993^b)	31 meetings (1995–2011)	August 2012
Tajikistan	29/05/2001	9 meetings (2002–2012)	March 2013^c)
Turkmenistan	24/11/2021	TBA	TBA
Uzbekistan	08/12/1994	5 meetings^d) (2002–2022)	TBA

^aProtocol on the Accession of Kazakhstan to the WTO was signed in July 2015.

^bRefers to the first application of Russia to the GATT.

^cProtocol on the Accession of Tajikistan to the WTO was signed in December 2012.

^dUzbekistan Working Parties met on 17 July 2002, 29 June 2004, 14 October 2005, 7 July 2020, and 21 June 2022.

Source: WTO (WTO (World Trade Organization) 2022a).

Table 5. Membership in regional PTA/FTA involving CARs.

Agreement	KAZ	KGZ	TKM	TJK	UZB
Commonwealth of Independent States (1994)*			X		X
Common Economic Zone (2004)	X
EAEU (2015)	X	X
EAEU – Iran (2019)	X	X
EAEU – Serbia (2021)	X	X
EAEU – Vietnam (2016)	X	X
Free Trade Area of the CIS (2012)	X	X		X
Kazakhstan – Armenia (2001)	X
Kazakhstan – Georgia (1998)	X
Kazakhstan – Kyrgyz Republic (1995)	X	X
Kyrgyz Republic – Armenia (1995)		X
Kyrgyz Republic – Moldova (1996)		X
Kyrgyz Republic – Ukraine (1998)		X
Kyrgyz Republic – Uzbekistan (1998)		X			X
Tajikistan – Ukraine (2002)				X
Turkmenistan – Armenia (1996)			X
Turkmenistan – Georgia (2000)			X
Turkmenistan – Russian Federation (1993)			X
Turkmenistan – Ukraine (1995)			X
Uzbekistan – Russian Federation (1993)					X
Uzbekistan – Ukraine (1996)					X

*The original CIS agreement (1994) has been replaced by the Treaty on the Free Trade Area of the CIS (2012) only for parties that ratified the new agreement.

Note: year in the brackets denotes entry into force.

Source: WTO (2022b).

Table 6. Applied tariff rate (%) across CARs, all products, 2020.

Country	Simple mean	Weighted mean
Kazakhstan	4.2	2.0
Kyrgyz Republic	3.9	2.3
Tajikistan	5.0	3.9
Turkmenistan	N/A	N/A
Uzbekistan	6.2	2.6

Source: World Bank (2022).

Table 7. Participation and membership in the related regional organizations and development programs, extended neighborhood.

Country	EAEU	SPECA	CAREC	SCO
Afghanistan		X	X	O
Armenia	X			D
Azerbaijan		X	X	D
Belarus	X			O
China			X	X
India				X
Iran				O
Kazakhstan	X	X	X	X
Kyrgyz Republic	X	X	X	X
Mongolia			X	O
Pakistan			X	X
Russia	X			X
Tajikistan		X	X	X
Turkey				D
Turkmenistan		X	X	G
Uzbekistan		X	X	X

D stands for dialogue partner; G stands for guest attendee, O stands for observer.

Source: own summary.

Figure 3. Total value of SPECA projects focused on trade and transportation, 2008–2019.

Red dotted lines represent accessions of Tajikistan (2013) and Kazakhstan (2015) to WTO.

Source: SPECA (United Nations Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia) (2022).

Figure 4. Total value of CAREC funding related to trade development, 2008–2019.

Constructed using average spending per year. Red dotted lines represent accessions of Tajikistan (2013) and Kazakhstan (2015) to WTO.

Source: CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program) (2022).

Table 8. Partner sample.

Afghanistan, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (Mainland), China (Hong Kong), Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Korea (Rep of), Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

Source: own summary.

Table 9. Pool of potential integration partners.

Partner	Sample
CHINA	China (Mainland), Hong Kong
EAEU	Armenia (2015), Belarus (2010), Kazakhstan (2010), Kyrgyz Republic (2015), Russia (2010)
IRAN	Iran
SPECA	Afghanistan*, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
TURKEY	Turkey
WTO	Afghanistan (2016)*, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (Mainland), China (Hong Kong) Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan (2015), Kenya, Korea (Rep of), Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia (2012), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Tajikistan (2013), Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

*Despite having trade data for Afghanistan, our estimations do not feature this economy due to the lack of country-level GDP data from the Penn World Table.

Year in the brackets denotes time of accession.

Source: own summary.

Table 10. Variable definitions and data sources.

Variable	Description	Data source
$\mathit{X}$	Value of trade flow (current mil. USD).	National Bank of Tajikistan State Committee on Statistics
$\mathit{Y}$	Output-side real GDPs measured at chained PPPs (2017 mil. USD).	PWT 10.0
$\mathit{P}$	Commodity export price index, individual commodities weighted by ratio of exports to total commodity exports (fixed weights).	IMF
Control set variables
DIST	Geographical distance between home and host countries (between capital cities, in km).	GeoDist
COMCOL	Dummy variable, unity if both trading partners were part of the USSR.
COLONY	Dummy variable, unity if trading partner is Russia.
CONTIG	Dummy variable, unity if both trading partners share a common land border.

Source: own summary.

Table 11. Uzbekistan, 3SLS, bilateral trade, 2010–2019.

	$\mathit{a}$	$Y_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$		$Y_{\mathit{j},\mathit{t}}$	$P_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$
EAEU	0.077***	0.085***		0.056***	216.1
	(0.004)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(574.1)
SPECA	0.004	0.085***		0.056***	−144.3
	(0.003)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(675.9)
CHINA	0.022***	0.083***		0.055***	−161.9
	(0.006)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(671.1)
IRAN	0.002	0.085***		0.056***	−147.4
	(0.015)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(687.5)
TURKEY	0.036+	0.085***		0.056***	−146.4
	(0.019)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(679.0)
WTO	−0.00001	0.085***		0.056***	−147.7
	(0.00007)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(679.0)
Control set			Yes
N			1580

standard errors in parentheses, significance levels: + p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Source: own summary.

Table 12. Tajikistan, 3SLS, bilateral trade, 2010–2019.

	$\mathit{a}$	$Y_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$		$Y_{\mathit{j},\mathit{t}}$	$P_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$
EAEU	0.047***	0.018***		0.002***	−152.1
	(0.003)	(0.0009)		(0.0009)	(130.0)
SPECA	0.009**	0.018***		0.002**	−326.5**
	(0.003)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(149.0)
CHINA	0.011	0.018***		0.002**	−339.1**
	(0.007)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(151.8)
IRAN	−0.001	0.018***		0.002**	−336.4**
	(0.020)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(153.7)
TURKEY	0.098***	0.018***		0.002**	−341.5**
	(0.022)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(148.3)
WTO	0.00008	0.018***		0.002**	−334.9**
	(0.0002)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(153.9)
Control set			Yes
N			1580

standard errors in parentheses, significance levels: + p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Source: own summary.

Table 13. Alpha estimates for unilateral export and import modes, 3SLS, 2010–2019.

$\mathit{\alpha }$	Tajikistan		Uzbekistan
	EXP	IMP	EXP	IMP
EAEU	0.018***	0.050***	0.102***	0.051***
	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.006)
SPECA	0.015***	0.008	0.004	0.003
	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.005)
CHINA	0.054***	0.010	0.019**	0.022**
	(0.014)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.009)
IRAN	0.013	0.001	−0.019	0.003
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.043)	(0.063)
TURKEY	0.616***	−0.005	0.050+	0.017
	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.024)
WTO	0.0001	−0.00004	−0.0003	−0.00001
	(0.0004)	0.0005	(0.0008)	(0.001)
N	790	790	790	790

standard errors in parentheses, significance levels: + p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Source: own summary.

Table 14. Uzbekistan, SUR, bilateral trade, 2010–2019.

	$\mathit{a}$	$Y_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$		$Y_{\mathit{j},\mathit{t}}$	$P_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$
EAEU	0.077***	0.085***		0.056***	216.1
	(0.004)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(574.1)
SPECA	0.004	0.085***		0.056***	−144.3
	(0.003)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(675.9)
CHINA	0.022***	0.083***		0.055***	−161.9
	(0.006)	(0.004)		(0.004)	(671.1)
IRAN	0.002	0.085***		0.056***	−147.4
	(0.015)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(687.5)
TURKEY	0.036+	0.085***		0.056***	−146.4
	(0.019)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(679.0)
WTO	−0.00001	0.085***		0.056***	−147.7
	(0.00007)	(0.005)		(0.005)	(679.0)
Control set			Yes
N			1580

standard errors in parentheses, significance levels: + p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Source: own summary.

Table 15. Tajikistan, SUR, bilateral trade, 2010–2019.

	$\mathit{a}$	$Y_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$		$Y_{\mathit{j},\mathit{t}}$	$P_{\mathit{i},\mathit{t}}$
EAEU	0.047***	0.018***		0.002***	−152.1
	(0.003)	(0.0009)		(0.0009)	(130.0)
SPECA	0.009**	0.018***		0.002**	−326.5**
	(0.003)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(149.0)
CHINA	0.011	0.018***		0.002**	−339.1**
	(0.007)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(151.8)
IRAN	−0.001	0.018***		0.002**	−336.4**
	(0.020)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(153.7)
TURKEY	0.098***	0.018***		0.002**	−341.5**
	(0.022)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(148.3)
WTO	0.00008	0.018***		0.002**	−334.9**
	(0.0002)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(153.9)
Control set			Yes
N			1580

standard errors in parentheses, significance levels: + p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Source: own summary.

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