Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Figures & data

Table 1 List of the injury risk curves produced for specific body regions and the injury risk model coefficients (α, β₁, β₂). The unweighted (N_U) and weighted (N_W) sample sizes, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), P value for belt status, and estimated risk at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V is provided for belted versus unbelted cases. For each risk curve, the higher injury risk at 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V between belted and unbelted occupants is bolded

	Model coefficients			Belted			Unbelted
Body region injury											P value for
risk curve	α, Intercept	β1, Belt	β2, DV	NU	NW	Risk, 56 km/h (%)	NU	NW	Risk, 56 km/h (%)	AUROC	belt status
Head
AIS 2+	−4.763	−1.428	0.066	358	38,501	7.56	245	26,906	25.44	0.76	<.0001*
AIS 3+	−6.440	−1.223	0.066	133	9,267	1.84	92	5,908	5.99	0.81	.0002*
AIS 4+	−6.729	−1.340	0.062	89	5,550	1.02	59	3,966	3.80	0.81	.0008*
AIS 5+	−7.046	−1.279	0.059	55	3,835	0.65	34	2,556	2.31	0.80	.0091*
Face
AIS 2+	−6.708	−1.803	0.060	52	3,355	0.59	62	3,755	3.49	0.82	<.0001*
Thorax
AIS 2+	−6.263	−0.439	0.085	409	42,873	12.36	203	13,482	17.94	0.81	.0294*
AIS 3+	−6.868	−0.857	0.093	269	22,334	7.40	169	10,724	15.85	0.85	.0004*
AIS 4+	−7.789	−1.251	0.095	129	7,422	2.35	84	5,358	7.75	0.88	.0006*
AIS 5+	−8.204	−1.635	0.091	45	2,978	0.84	41	3,166	4.17	0.88	.0012*
Abdomen
AIS 2+	−6.167	−1.508	0.077	175	13,482	3.36	111	11,310	13.58	0.85	<.0001*
AIS 3+	−7.086	−1.155	0.072	69	6,418	1.43	46	4,012	4.39	0.85	.0032*
Spine
AIS 2+	−7.317	0.063	0.075	185	18,839	4.55	84	3,745	4.29	0.77	.8593
AIS 3+	−8.019	−1.071	0.073	52	3,001	0.68	37	1,802	1.96	0.79	.0639
Upper extremity
AIS 2+	−4.901	−0.317	0.064	598	90,353	15.99	190	22,259	20.71	0.72	.0348*
AIS 3+	−6.262	−0.627	0.068	212	21,361	4.49	79	7,650	8.09	0.73	.0164*
Lower extremity
AIS 2+	−4.163	−0.870	0.070	948	12,7180	24.62	459	4,9439	43.82	0.78	<.0001*
AIS 3+	−6.240	−1.495	0.100	399	27,776	10.31	258	21,938	33.90	0.84	<.0001*

* indicates statistical significance (p < 0.05)

Figure 1 Weighted injury count and cumulative percent for the top 50% of AIS 2+ injuries in NASS-CDS 2000–2011. On the x-axis, there are 33 injuries that make up the top 50% of AIS 2+ injuries in NASS-CDS 2000–2011 and these are ranked in descending order in terms of weighted frequency.

Figure 2 Injury risk curves with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines) for select injuries: cerebrum subarachnoid hemorrhage, unilateral lung contusion, clavicle fracture, and patella fracture. Injury risk is plotted versus longitudinal delta-V (km/h) and stratified by belt status.

Figure 3 Risk at 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V for (a) specific injuries and (b) specific body regions plotted versus the weighted injury count in NASS-CDS and stratified by belt status and AIS severity.

Figure 4 AIS 2+ injury risk curves with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines) for the head, face, thorax, abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity. Injury risk is plotted versus longitudinal delta-V (km/h) and stratified by belt status.