Monte Carlo Simulation of Oil Fields

Most investments in the oil and gas industry involve considerable risk with a wide range of potential outcomes for a particular project. However, many economic evaluations are based on the “most likely” results of variables that could be expected without sufficient consideration given to other possible outcomes, and it is well known that initial estimates of all these variables have uncertainty. The data is usually obtained during drilling of the initial oil well, and the sources are geophysical (seismic surveys) for formation depths and the areal extent of the reservoir trap, well logs for formation tops and bottoms, formation porosity, water saturation and possible permeable strata, core analysis for porosity and saturation data, and others. The question is how certain are the values of these variables and what is the probability of these values to occur in the reservoir to evaluate the possible risks? One of the most highly appreciable applications of the risk assessment is the estimation of volumetric reserves of hydrocarbon reservoirs (Monte Carlo). In this study, predictions were made about how statistical distribution and descriptive statistics of porosity, thickness, area, water saturation, recovery factor, and oil formation volume factor affect the simulated original oil in place values of two different oil fields in Turkey, and the results are discussed.

Keywords:

• drill stem test
• pressure
• volume
• temperature
• formation volume factor
• original oil in place