The Modeling and Projection of Primary Energy Consumption by the Sources

Abstract

In the current study, consumption of energy sources (CES) are modeled using trend analysis and projections are presented for future planning. For projections, trends in CES during 1965–2010 are first identified. According to the trend observed, the appropriate regression analysis is employed to catch the best relations between CES and years. Developed models are tested by the t-distribution, the F-distribution and residual analysis. Additionally, the calculated results for CES from fitted curves that were compared with the projected CES calculated by British Petroleum and the International Energy Agency. Statistically significant trends are indicated for each kind of energy source. It is seen that differences between calculated and the projected CES from different scenarios are in the acceptable range. It is concluded that the models are statistically valid in terms of t-test and F-test. The residuals also confirm the accuracy of the models. The results show that the developed models can be used for projections of primary energy consumption by the sources for future planning.

Keywords:

• consumption
• energy sources, forecasting
• trend analysis