Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption in Turkey Using Grey Prediction

Abstract

Natural gas, used for heating and electricity generation, has become one of the important energy sources in the world since it provides low level emission of greenhouse gases and has significant economic and other environmental benefits. Turkey, a natural bridge between Europe and the Middle East, is one of the fastest-developing countries in the world. Although Turkey has a small proven natural gas reserve, natural gas consumption has increased in the past few years and it is expected to continue in the future with a chaotic and nonlinear trend. Therefore, the forecasting of natural gas consumption is very important for energy policymakers for future energy planning in Turkey. In this study, a grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict natural gas consumption and to assist energy policymakers in Turkey. The GPRM approach is utilized since it has high prediction accuracy and applicability when limited data exist. Furthermore, the future projections have been conducted for natural gas consumption in Turkey.

Keywords:

• forecasting
• grey prediction
• natural gas consumption