The near- to mid-term outlook for concentrating solar power: mostly cloudy, chance of sun

Figures & data

Table 1. Indicators used to assess the outlook of CSP on the global level. For all indicators, we create data series 2007-current; all indicators will be assessed on a global level, and some will additionally be analyzed on a national level

Dimension	Indicator	Proxy for
Policy and market outlook	# active policies	Market size and resilience of global CSP market against policy change
	Project pipeline	Size, robustness of short-term future market
Industry outlook	# companies of key value chain steps involved in ongoing projects	Diversity and resilience of value chain, ability to scale up
	Home country of value chain companies	Stakes of national governments to support CSP as industry policy; geographical spread of industry
	# projects commissioned by currently active companies	Experience of the industry
Cost outlook	Generation-weighted average LCOE of commissioned projects	Competitiveness and economic attractiveness of CSP

Figure 1. Policies triggering new CSP projects (upper panel) and CSP capacity under construction per year (lower panel), 2006–2022. Upper panel: only support that triggered construction is displayed; hence, Morocco has no entry for 2019 as Midelt 1 has not broken ground (in April 2020). The US PPA deals are not included. Lower panel: includes stations under construction in January 2020 and scheduled for completion before the end of 2022. Source: csp.guru (2020)

Figure 2. Number of projects breaking ground (left) and under construction (right) in each year, 2006–2019 (now operational) and 2020–2022 (under construction on 1 January 2020, scheduled for completion 2020–2022). Projects are counted in each year in which they were under construction (construction start-completion). Noor Energy 1 is indicated as ongoing until the last part is scheduled to be finished in 2022, although the first parts should be completed in 2021. Source: csp.guru (2020)

Figure 3. Number of active companies per segment (developer, EPC, collector (IP owner) and receiver (manufacturing), respectively) in CSP projects under construction 2006–2019 (now operational) and 2020–2022 (under construction on 1 January 2020, scheduled for completion 2020–2022). Projects are counted in each year in which they were/are scheduled to be under construction (construction start-completion). Source: csp.guru (2020)

Figure 4. Number of active companies in the four value chain segments in the trough (left) and tower (right) markets, 2006–2019 (now operational) 2020–2022 (under construction on 1 January 2020, scheduled for completion 2020–2022). Projects are counted in each year in which they were/are scheduled to be under construction (construction start-completion). Source: csp.guru (2020)

Figure 5. Experience of national industries as the sum of previously completed projects of companies active in projects under construction, 2006–2022. Note: the HCE graph includes the acquisition of Solel, by Siemens, and Rioglass’ acquisition of the receiver businesses of Siemens and Schott. If multiple companies are involved in the same value chain step of one project, the “experience point” is split equally between them. Source: csp.guru (2020)

Figure 6. Levelised cost of electricity of the 82 solar-only commercial CSP stations for which we have both cost and expected generation data, 2006–2019 (now operational) and 2020–2022 (under construction in January 2020, scheduled completion 2020–2022). The different parts of Noor Energy 1 are displayed with their individual finalization dates in 2021 and 2022, but with a uniform cost for the entire complex. The average LCOE is the generation-weighted average of all stations (expected to) start operating in each year. Source: csp.guru (2020)

Table 2. Summary of key results and their effect on the outlook

Dimension	Indicator	Key result
Policy and market outlook	# active policies	Only Morocco had support open for new projects in 2019. The Chinese scheme will be phased out in 2021. No further support decided or implemented.
	Project pipeline	Pipeline peaked in 2018; no new project broke ground in 2019 – first year without new CSP projects in 13 years. Only four projects under construction in 2020.
Industry outlook	# companies of key value chain steps involved in ongoing projects	Value chain strengthened compared to 2015; increasing diversity and competition within CSP sector.
	Home country of value chain companies	New Chinese entrants strengthened the value chain, European and US industries continued declining.
	# projects commissioned by currently active companies	Almost all experience accumulated in a handful of Spanish companies; new entrants have no experience. Most experienced companies have no ongoing projects as of 2020.
Cost outlook	Generation-weighted average LCOE of commissioned projects	Costs decreased by about 50% in 5 years, approach USD 0.1 per kWh. Competitiveness with new conventional generation possible soon.

csp.guru. 2020. CSP guru ( Version: January 2020). Potsdam, Richard Thonig, Johan Lilliestam: Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS).

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