The impact of extreme weather on peak electricity demand from homes heated by air source heat pumps

Figures & data

Figure 1. Heat pump system schematic diagram (Carroll, Chesser, and Lyons 2020)

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for average electricity use per home and temperature for Storm Emma, A Day during Storm Emma & The same day the following year

	28^th February 2018		28^th February 2019		Storm Emma, 28th February – 4th March 2018
	Temp.(°C)	Average coincident electricity usage (kW)	Temp.(°C)	Average coincident electricity usage (kW)	Temp.(°C)	Average coincident electricity usage (kW)
Min	−4.90	1.086	5.80	0.349	−5.60	1.086
Median	−2.75	2.554	7.85	0.993	−0.55	2.528
Mean	−2.77	2.503	8.43	1.075	−0.67	2.529
Max	−1.50	3.839	12.10	2.331	3.60	4.361
n	768		768		3,840

Figure 2. The averaged SH_2.0 electricity usage TS_t and Temperature, 28^th February – 4^th March 2018

Figure 3. Coincident averaged electricity usage Histogram and Empirical Density, Storm Emma:28^th February – 4^th March 2018

Figure 4. Skewness-kurtosis plot for average electricity usage (kw) as provided by the descdist function in R

Figure 5. CDF plot of both the empirical distribution and the fitted distribution

Figure 6. Density function of the fitted distribution along with the histogram of the Storm Emma empirical distribution

Figure 7. Q-Q plot representing the empirical quantiles (y-axis) against the theoretical quantiles (x-axis)

Figure 8. P-P plot representing the empirical distribution function evaluated at each data point (y-axis) against the fitted distribution function (x-axis)

Table 2. Goodness-of-fit Statistics & Criteria

		Gamma	Log Normal	Normal	Weibull
Goodness-of-fit statistics	Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.05
	Cramer-von Mises statistic	0.14	0.22	0.18	0.27
	Anderson-Darling statistic	0.83	1.28	1.20	2.18
Goodness-of-fit criteria	Akaike’s Information Criterion	804.08	811.27	811.93	831.40
	Bayesian Information Criterion	812.43	819.62	820.27	839.75

Carroll, P., M. Chesser, and P. Lyons. 2020. Air source heat pumps field studies: A systematic literature review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 134:110275. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110275.

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