Course change: Navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

Figures & data

Figure 1. Overall and transport greenhouse gas emissions in Germany and mitigation targets of the German Government (1990–2050).

Source: Reutter et al. (2013, p. 8), (updated in 2019).

Sources of data: Umweltbundesamt (2019a, 2019b, 2019c); BMUB (2016).

Figure 2. Urban structures of the Ruhr Metropolitan Region – all cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants.

Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhrgebiet#/media/Datei:Ruhr_area-map.png

Figure 3. Methodological approach: Navigating toward sustainable urban passenger transport regarding direction, scale and speed of urban modal shift.

Own figure; similar figures see Hickman & Banister (2007, p. 379) and Van Vuuren et al. (2015, p. 305) (which is also used in Geels et al., 2020).

Figure 4. Subsystems of the integrated Ruhr Area model.

Source: Wegener (2018, p. 5); Schwarze et al. (2017, p. 13); color changes and slight amendments

Figure 5. Scale of change needed: Current modal split in the Ruhr Metropolitan Region and proposed target for 2035.

Modal split data: Grindau & Sagolla (2012); RVR (2019); Target proposal: Reutter et al. (2013, 2017), RVR (2014).

Table 1. Assumptions of the measures developed for modeling and similar real-world examples.

Measures developed and modeled for the Ruhr Metropolitan Area (numbers = scenario numbers)	Real-world examples of similar measures in selected European cities
Land use
13 Densification at railway stations: From 2020 onwards, construction projects for housing, retail and commercial use are permitted exclusively in zones with at least one railway station. This is the case in 170 of the 687 modeling zones (Schwarze et al., 2017).	In Hammarby Sjöstadt, a brownfield redevelopment area (24,000 inhabitants) located three kilometers south of Stockholm city center, dense and mixed-use settlement structures were developed with diversified mobility options including an extended tram line, which have led to decreased car use and CO2 emissions (Foletta, 2011b).
23 New housing at railway stations: Starting in 2020, public authorities construct 13,000 publicly subsidized dwellings annually to provide affordable housing. All dwellings are constructed in immediate vicinity to railway stations (same zones as in scenario 13) (Schwarze et al., 2017).	Greenwich Millennium Village, a mixed-use, hig-density brownfield redevelopment site nine kilometers from London city center, with high quality public transportation and low car use (Foletta, 2011a).
Energy efficiency
32 Promotion of electric mobility: Starting in 2020, subsidies for buying an electric car are increased step-by-step up to 33% of the purchase price in 2050. Also, fast charging stations in city centers are promoted by public infrastructure investments. The share of electric cars rises in this scenario from 30% in the BAU scenario to 50% in 2050.	Through intense promotion, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) make up 54.3% of all cars sold in Norway in 2020 (The Guardian, 2021), compare to 6.7% in Germany (Kraftfahrtbundesamt, 2021). Norway has the goal to only sell zero-emission cars starting from 2025. In Oslo (670,000 inhabitants), more than 50,000 pure electric passenger cars were registered in July 2020 (Joshi, 2020). The city promotes electric car use by infrastructural measures and incentives.
33 Area-wide car sharing: The car sharing offer increases from 2 car sharing vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants in 2020 to 3 vehicles/1,000 inhabitants in 2030 and 4 vehicles/1,000 inhabitants in 2040 (compared to 0.14 car sharing vehicles/1,000 inhabitants in the City of Essen in 2013) (Bundesverband CarSharing e.V., 2013).	City of Karlsruhe (316,000 inhabitants): Karlsruhe is the current ‘car sharing capital’ of Germany with most car sharing vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants (2.15 carsharing vehicles per 1.000 inhabitants in 2015; 3.2 in 2019) – compared to most German cities with far below 1 car sharing vehicle per 1,000 inhabitants (Bundesverband CarSharing e.V., 2015, 2019). City of Bremen (557,000 inhabitants): The city actively promotes car sharing by providing parking spaces for car sharing vehicles in public street space that are well connected to public transport, cycling and walking (‘mobil.punkte’). Bremen has reached its target to increase the number of car sharing users from 11,000 in 2016 to 20,000 in 2020 (City of Bremen, 2020).
34 Increased energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet (decreased fuel consumption): Reduction of the average fuel consumption of cars from 8 liters per 100 km in 2020 to 3 liters per 100 km in 2050 (compared to 6.7 liters in the BAU scenario), e.g., through a regional climate zone.	City of London (3.3 m inhabitants in Inner London): Congestion charge was introduced in 2003 and has led to reduced CO2 emissions and air pollutants and improved efficiency of the vehicles circulating within the charging zone (TfL, 2007).
Car (push strategies)
41 Regional toll Ruhr Region: Beginning in 2020, all private cars in the Ruhr Region have to pay a monthly fee of 75 Euro (138 Euro in 2050 due to inflation). The costs equal the assumed costs of the ‘citizen ticket’ and are similar to the costs of existing road toll systems in European cities (e.g. Milan 2–5 Euro/day, Stockholm 1.10–11.10 Euro/day) (Sadler Consultants Ltd., n.d.).	The City of Stockholm (936,000 inhabitants) introduced a city toll in 2007 that reduced traffic volumes by about 18 to 20% in the first five years of operation (Börjesson et al., 2012).
42 Reallocation of road space on main roads: In 2020, all six- and four-lane streets for cars (including highways) are reduced by two lanes. In 2030, all remaining four-lane streets are reduced by two lanes. The released road space is reallocated for more environmentally friendly modes of transport.	The City of Vitoria-Gasteiz (245,000 inhabitants) changed several two-lane streets to one-way streets for cars and reallocated the reduced car lanes for cycling (CIVITAS, 2014). From 2002 to 2014, the share of cycling could be increased from 1% to 13% of all trips. Until 2020, the cycling share shall be further increased to 15% (City of Vitoria-Gasteiz, 2010).
43 Area-wide speed limits: In 2020, the following speed limits are introduced: 80 km/h on motorways, 60 km/h on highways, 30 km/h on all other streets.	The City of Munich (1.5 m inhabitants) implemented far-reaching speed limits with 30 km/h speed limit zones on 85 to 90% of the inner-city road network (Hutter, 2019).
44 Increased parking fees: Starting in 2020, parking fees increase step-by-step so that in 2050 they are four times higher than in 2020.	The City of Barcelona (1.6 m inhabitants) uses its parking revenues to finance the public bike sharing system ‘Bicing’ (Kodransky & Hermann, 2011).
Public transport (pull strategies)
51 Extension of public transport network: New tramlines are built by reactivating tramlines that were abolished in the past. The extended public transport network equals the tramline network that already existed in the Ruhr Region in the 1950s/1960s.	The City of Nantes (298,000 inhabitants) was the first city in France to reintroducing the tramway (abolished in 1958, reintroduced in 1985). Since then, the public transport network has been constantly extended, e.g. by 22% from 2000 to 2010 (offer per kilometer) (City of Nantes, 2009).
52 More frequent public transport services: Starting in 2020, the public transport service frequencies are increased step-by-step, so that in 2050 service frequencies are four times more often than in 2050.	The City of Vienna (1.8 m inhabitants) extended public transport services and increased service frequencies (City of Vienna, 2015) parallel to the reduced annual urban public transport ticket from 449 Euro to 365 Euro (one Euro per day) in 2012 and the continuously rising number of annual ticket holders (373,000 in 2011; 852,300 in 2019) (Wiener Stadtwerke, 2020). From 1993 to 2012, the trip-based share of public transport of the Vienna inhabitants increased from 29% to 39% (supplemental material).
53 Introduction of a ‘citizen ticket’: Starting in 2020, each household has to pay a monthly contribution of 75 Euro (138 Euro in 2050 due to inflation). In return, public transport use in the entire Ruhr Region is free of any extra-charge. The assumptions for the price are based on model calculations of a doctoral thesis for the introduction of a citizen ticket in the City of Wuppertal that would cost 42 to 82 Euros per month and household with/without third user financing, assuming that transport volumes increase by 10 to 30% (Waluga, 2017, p. 247).	North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW): Until today, no citizen ticket has ever been introduced in Germany. A comparable, solidarily financed ticket is the semester ticket for university students that has been introduced since 1991 at almost all universities in Germany. Since 2008, more than half a million university students in the Federal State of NRW, and thus also in the Ruhr Metropolitan Region, can use the public transport network of the entire federal state (17.9 mn inhabitants). Semester tickets are well accepted by the students, significantly reduce car use and CO2 emissions and support students in their decision to abandon their car (Müller, 2016).
Cycling (pull strategies)
61 System acceleration of cycling: Starting in 2020, the average cycling speed increases step-by-step so that in 2050 the average cycling speed is 30% faster than in 2020.	The City of Copenhagen (591,000 inhabitants) promotes system acceleration of cycling, e.g. by fast cycling routes and ‘green waves’ for average cycling speeds of 20 km/h (Cycling Embassy of Denmark, 2018). Cycling speed in Copenhagen could be increased from 15.3 km/h (2004) to 16.4 km/h (+7,2%) (2014) (City of Copenhagen, 2013 & 2015), compared to 10.6 km/h (2008) in Germany (Arndt & Zimmermann, 2012). Until 2025, cycling speed shall be accelerated by 15% compared to 2012 (City of Copenhagen, 2011). For 48% of the Copenhageners, the possibility for fast cycling is one of the main reasons to cycle (City of Copenhagen, 2011).
62 Fast cycling routes network: Until 2050, the currently being built fast cycling route ‘Radschnellweg Ruhr’ that crosses the Ruhr Region from east to west (planned length: 101 kilometers) is extended to a network of fast cycling routes that consists of four east-west routes and eight north-south routes and allows an average cycling speed of 20 km/h.	In Denmark, 28 municipalities are working together in the Region of Copenhagen to create a network of cycle superhighways (‘Supercykelstier’). 60 routes are planned that total a length of 850 kilometers. Until 2019, 167 kilometers have been finished (Cycle Superhighways, 2019).
Walking (pull strategies)
71 System acceleration of walking: Starting in 2020, footpaths are shortened step-by-step (e.g. by crossing aids, removal of barriers) so that in 2050 walking distances are 20% shorter and faster than in 2020.	Since 2011, the City of Berlin (3.5 m inhabitants) has a walking strategy that aims at creating a dense network of interconnected, direct and attractive walking connections and avoiding detours (City of Berlin, 2011). The share of walking could be increased from 25% (1998) to 31% (2013) of all trips per day (supplemental material). Since 2003, the City of Zurich (416,000 inhabitants) promotes walking with several separate strategies (Ott, 2006).

For measure fact sheets see Reutter et al. (2017).

Table 2. Single and combined measure scenarios.

Single measure scenarios	Combined scenarios
13 Densification at railway stations 23 New housing at railway stations	81 Land-use
32 Electric mobility 33 Car sharing 34 Fuel consumption	82 Energy efficiency^a
41 Regional toll Ruhr Region 42 Reallocation of road space on main roads 43 Area-wide speed limits 44 Increased parking fees	83 Car traffic (push measures)
51 Extension of public transport network 52 More frequent public transport services 53 Introduction of a ‘citizen ticket’ 61 System acceleration of cycling 62 Fast cycling routes network 71 System acceleration of walking	84 Public transport/cycling/walking (pull measures)
All measures (scenarios 81, 82, 83 and 84)	85 All measures
All push and pull measures (scenarios 83 and 84)	91 Push & pull measures
All push and pull and energy efficiency measures (scenarios 82, 83 and 84)	92 Push & pull & energy efficiency

^aScenario 82 also includes measure 31 “building energy”. However, the measure specifically addresses CO₂ emissions of buildings and does not have an effect on transport emissions. Thus, the measure is not further considered in this paper (see Schwarze et al., 2017, for combined CO₂ emissions of buildings and transport).

Figure 6. Modal share of car use (A-scenarios) and proposed target for 2035.

Modeling: S&W; Figure: S&W amended by Müller; PT = public transport

Figure 7. Modal share of car use (B-scenarios) and proposed target for 2035.

Modeling: S&W; Figure: S&W amended by Müller; PT = public transport

Figure 8. CO₂ emissions of passenger transport (A-scenarios), climate protection targets of the German Government and net zero target by 2035.

Modeling: S&W; Figure: S&W amended by Müller; PT = public transport; net zero target by 2035 according to Fridays for Future & German Zero e.V.

Figure 9. CO₂ emissions of passenger transport (B-scenarios), climate protection targets of the German Government and net zero target by 2035.

Modeling: S&W; Figure: S&W amended by Müller; PT = public transport; net zero target by 2035 according to Fridays for Future & German Zero e.V.

Figure 10. Potentials for reducing the modal share of car use: Indications from forecast scenarios and thirteen real-world city examples.

The rather conservative A-scenarios with only one percent fuel price increases per year and less modal shifts are used in the figure. City modal shifts represent overall developments in the cities, not the specific effects of the single measures presented in section 5.2. Data and sources: Supplemental online material.

Table

City (inhabitants)	Trip-based modal share of car use (%)				Time interval in years	Development of modal share of car use
	Earliest data available		Latest data available			In total (percentage points)	On average (percentage points per year)
Barcelona (1.6 m)	2006	28.5	2013	24.2	7	–4.3	–0.6
Berlin (3.8 m)	1998	38	2018	26	20	–12	–0.6
Bremen (569,000)	2008	40,4	2018	35,6	10	–2,4	–0.5
Copenhagen (632,000) Long-term average	2007	36	2018	32	11	–4	–0.4
Copenhagen sharpest reduction phase	2008	37	2010	33	2	–4	–2.0
Karlsruhe (306,000) Long-term average	1982	44	2018	33	35	–6	–0.3
Karlsruhe sharpest reduction phase	2002	44	2012	35	10	–9	–0.9
London (8.9 m Greater London, 3.3 m Inner London) Long-term average	1996	49	2017	36	21	–13	–0.6
London sharpest reduction phase	1999	48	2008	40	9	–8	–0.9
Munich (1.5 m)	2002	41	2017	34	15	–7	–0.5
Munich sharpest reduction phase	2002	41	2008	37	6	–4	–0.7
Nantes (309,000) Long-term average	1997	60.3	2012	52	15	–8.3	–0.6
Nantes sharpest reduction phase	2002	63.1	2012	52	10	–11.1	–1.1
Oslo (693,000) Long-term average	2005	45	2015	34	10	–11	–1.1
Oslo sharpest reduction phase	2005	45	2011	34	6	–11	–1.8
Stockholm (950,000)	2004	48	2006	47	2	–1	–0.5
Vienna (1.9 m) Long-term average	1993	40	2020	27	27	–13	–0.5
Vienna sharpest reduction phase	2002	37	2012	27	10	–10	–1.0
Vitoria-Gasteiz (250,000) Long-term average	1996	36	2014	24.7	18	–11.3	–0.6
Vitoria-Gasteiz sharpest reduction phase	2006	36.9	2014	24.7	8	–12.2	–1.5
Zurich (434,000)	2000	40	2015	25	15	–15	–1.0

Sources and additional modal split data: Supplemental online material.

The italics emphasize when city modal split data is additionally analyzed regarding “sharpest reduction phases” (as compared to only “long-term averages”).

Table

City	Starting point^a	Trip-based modal share target of car use	Time interval in years	Reduction of modal share of car use
				Overall (percentage points)	Average per year (percentage points, rounded)
Ruhr Metropolitan Region (target proposal based on 2012 data)	53% in 2012	25% by 2035	23	–28	–1.2
Copenhagen (target of 2015)	33% in 2014	25% by 2025	11	–8	–0.7
London (target of 2017)	36.5% in 2016	20% by 2041	25	–16.5	–0.7
Vienna^b (target of 2014)	28% in 2014	20% by 2025	11	–8	–0.7
	20% in 2025 (assumed)	15% by 2030	5	–5	–1.0
Zurich (target of 2012)	30% in 2010	20% by 2025	15	–10	–0.7

^a The starting point is the modal share of car use in the year closest to the year the target is adopted (or proposed in case of the Ruhr Metropolitan Region).

^b Further target of the City of Vienna: “far below 15%” by 2050. Sources and additional data: Supplemental online material.

Table

		Trip-based modal share of motorized private transport (in %)		CO2 emissions of transport (tons/inhabitant/year)
1990		∼50		∼1.2
2015		∼54		∼1.6
		A-scenarios	B-scenarios	A-scenarios	B-scenarios
Business as usual (BAU) 2050		∼58	∼53	∼1.5	∼1.0
Measure scenarios		Approximate impacts of measures compared to the BAU scenarios 2050 (in percentage points)		Approximate impacts of measures compared to the BAU scenarios 2050 (in %)
Land use	13 Densification at railway stations	0	0	0%	0%
	23 New housing at railway stations	0	0	–1%	–1%
Efficiency	32 Promotion of electric mobility	0	0	–14%	–14%
	33 Area-wide car sharing	–1.5	–1	–1%	+1%
	34 Increased energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet	+2.5	+4	–45%	–29%
Car (push)	41 Regional toll Ruhr Metropolitan Region	–3	–3	–3%	–3%
	42 Reallocation of road space	–2	–1	–41%	–26%
	43 Area-wide speed limits	–1.5	–2	–24%	–16%
	44 Increased parking fees	0	0	–1%	–1%
Public transport (pull)	51 Extension of public transport network	–0.2	–0.2	0%	0%
	52 More frequent public transport services	–2	–2.2	+19%	+28%
	53 Introduction of a ‘citizen ticket’	–1.5	–2	–1%	–1%
Cycling (pull)	61 System acceleration of cycling	0	0	0%	0%
	62 Fast cycling routes network	0	0	0%	0%
Walking (pull)	71 System acceleration of walking	–0.8	–1	–1%	0%
Combined scenarios	81 Land-use	0	+0.5	–1%	–2%
	82 Efficiency measures	0	+2	–45%	–29%
	83 Push measures (car)	–9	–7	–59%	–45%
	84 Pull measures (public transport, cycling, walking)	–3.5	–4.8	+19%	+29%
	85 All measures	–21	–18	–53%	–40%
	91 Push & pull measures	–19	–13	–42%	–12%
	92 Push & pull & energy efficiency	–19	–15	–53%	–40%

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