What determines modal substitution between bike-sharing and public transit? Evidence from Columbus, Ohio during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between bike-sharing and public transit trips before and after COVID-19 lockdowns, focusing on Columbus, Ohio. Using CoGo Bike Share trip data together with Automatic Passenger Counter (APC) data from the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA), we first identify bike-share trips and public transit ridership patterns during this period and classify bike-share trips as substitutive and complementary to public transit trips. We then employ binary logit models to analyze the determinants of substitutive trips. Some key findings are as follows. First, the COVID-19 outbreak caused decreases in bus ridership while increases in bike-sharing trips. Second, bike-sharing may compete with public transit for short distance trips. Third, bike-sharing trips are likely to substitute public transit within more intensive and congested public transit networks after controlling for various other factors. Fourth, trips made in different neighborhoods and land use reveal significant relationships with modal types. Lastly, lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to substitutive trips substantially, particularly on weekdays.

Keywords:

• Bike-sharing
• modal substitution
• modal complementation
• COVID-19 lockdown
• binary logit models