An economic analysis of deforestation in Madagascar in the 1990s

Figures & data

Figure 1. Percent of total area in cloud cover from satellite data.

Figure 2. Forest cover in 1990 in hectares.

Figure 3. Predominant forest types.

Table I. Forest and forest loss estimates.

Totals	All	Moist	Spiny	Dry	Mangrove
Visible forest 1990 (ha)	10,673,306	5,971,184	2,133,350	2,568,773	211,886
Visible forest loss 1990 – 2000 (ha)	998,437	551,266	222,598	224,573	5402
Highest possible loss (ha)	1,697,878	1,203,363	229,451	265,064	12,793
Visible forest loss (%)	9.66%	9.71%	10.47%	8.87%	2.55%
Lowest possible forest loss (%)	9.31%	9.15%	10.43%	8.74%	2.46%
Highest forest possible loss (%)	15.38%	19.01%	10.75%	10.30%	5.83%
Total area (ha)	11,038,869	6,331,728	2,133,717	2,573,424
Area of ambiguous land type (due to clouds)	699,441	652,097	6852	40,492
Commune means (standard deviations)∗	N = 1250	N = 940	N = 80	N = 230
Visible forest loss (%)	14.28%	15.58%	7.63%	11.28%
	(20.79)	(22.26)	(10.56)	(15.97)
Forested area 1990 (ha)	8272	6042	26,585	11,013
	(17,343)	(14,242)	(34,780)	(15,699)
Total area of commune (ha)	45,394	38,838	61,601	66,551
	(52,491)	(47,434)	(56,407)	(63,137)
Percent of total area with ambiguous land type	1.60	2.05	0.18	0.23
	(4.58)	(5.17)	(0.86)	(0.88)
∗Note: Communes with zero forest excluded.

Table II. Descriptive statistics – commune means (standard deviations) by forest type.

	Moist	Spiny	Dry	All communes with forest	Communes with zero forest
N	867	78	194	1139	145
Population	9046	9415	6539	8644	11118
	(24,675)	(10,960)	(9004)	(22,048)	(11,666)
Fertility (children per 1000 women) 1993	90.89	85.67	87.25	89.91	81.50
	(12.42)	(9.88)	(11.43)	(12.22)	(15.50)
Population Density (per km2) 1993	79.37	93.300	68.64	78.50	538.56
	418.35	595.650	573.59	461.54	1821.43
Percent living below poverty line 1993	75.24	80.81	67.12	74.24	75.24
	12.86	8.23	15.94	13.63	12.86
Mean income (Fmg) 1993	300,974	250,875	338,048	303,858	355,938
	(121,141)	(63,608)	(114,803)	(118,636)	(136,122)
Mean rainfall (mm)	1809.81	578.96	1215.67	1624.33	1475.47
	(553.75)	(172.50)	(415.46)	(627.87)	(401.20)
Mean elevation (m)	676.12	205.75	160.16	556.03	1102.99
	(539.09)	(123.88)	(165.27)	(522.43)	(408.59)
Percent of communes without land titles	26.99	53.85	48.45	32.48	20.69
Percent of communes with access to national road 1990	31.17	33.33	27.32	30.66	38.73
Percent of communes with access to provincial road 1990	35.69	56.41	36.60	37.27	56.33
Percent of commune residents engaged in agriculture 1993	59.06	50.41	59.61	58.56	47.88
Percent of communes where vanilla is a major crop 1991	6.37	0.00	0.00	4.85	0
Percent of communes where coffee is a major crop 1991	41.37	0.00	4.12	32.15	4.26
Selected ethnic groups, estimated mean % of commune population (min, max)
Merina	14.92	0.06	0.42	11.42	56.76
	(0, 100)	(0, 1)	(0, 40)	(0, 100)	(0, 100)
Betsileo	11.87	0.05	2.39	1.30	4.42
	(0, 99)	(0, 2)	(0, 68)	(0, 100)	(0, 99)
Mahafaly	0.04	14.05	1.78	1.30	0
	(0, 17)	(0, 100)	(0, 90)	(0, 100)	(0, 0)
Antanosy	2.31	11.88	4.85	3.40	0.92
	(0, 99)	(0, 90)	(0, 100)	(0, 100)	(0, 10)
Sakalava	2.12	0.23	17.25	4.58	0.15
	(0, 98)	(0, 3)	(0, 98)	(0, 98)	(0, 3)
Bara	3.24	1.44	5.96	3.58	2.71
	(0, 99)	(0, 70)	(0, 98)	(0, 99)	(0, 80)
Antandroy	3.24	1.44	5.96	3.58	0.60
	(0, 99)	(0, 100)	(0, 99)	(0, 100)	(0, 5)
Tsimihety	7.36	0.00	7.19	6.83	0.57
	(0, 100)	(0, 0)	(0, 95)	(0, 100)	(0, 75)

Table III. Causes of deforestation in the moist forest region∗

Dependent variable = forest lost (ha)	Model I		Model II
	Coefficient	z	Coefficient	z
Population (log)	96.68	1.65	84.76	1.41
Fertility rate (children/100 women)	7.12	2.06	4.95	1.80
Population Density (#/km^2)	−0.29	−0.87	−0.42	−0.98
Percent of population living in poverty	1.74	0.50	1.11	0.39
No land titles in Commune (dummy)	−172.74	−1.91	−163.53	−1.73
Distance to nearest city (log)	−32.94	−0.78	−1.42	−0.04
National Road access (dummy)	−1.43	−0.02	17.62	0.24
Provincial Road access (dummy)	159.66	1.99	119.77	1.58
Percent of population engaged in agriculture	1.68	0.65	0.64	0.26
Percent of rice production exported	−2.22	−1.77	−1.76	−1.65
Vanilla as a major crop (dummy)	−3800.08	−4.57	−4024.58	−10.22
Coffee as a major crop (dummy)	261.11	1.89	522.50	3.08
Climatic/geographic variables
Total commune area	0.0000	−1.40	0.0000	−0.83
Area forested in 1990	0.08	8.33	0.09	6.85
Precipitation (log of mm)	552.69	2.08	767.74	2.07
Elevation (log of meters)	130.71	3.11	148.43	4.99
Eastern Coast (dummy)	261.86	1.39
Provincial Dummies
Antananarivo (dummy)	−345.75	−1.25
Fianaranstsoa (dummy)	−166.68	−0.54
Toamasina (dummy)	−33.11	−0.09
Diego (dummy)	−377.14	−0.57
Ethnic composition (% of population)
Merina			−0.27	−0.17
Betsileo			2.03	1.34
Tanala			−2.91	−1.76
Mahafaly			82.70	6.82
Antanosy			14.88	1.11
Sakalava			0.32	0.07
Bara			0.33	0.06
Antandroy			−4.81	−1.16
Tsimehety			−13.75	−0.27
Mill's lambda	346.04	2.36	358.36	3.44
Constant	−6601.13	−3.23	−8284.33	−2.91
N	392		392
Pseudo R ^2	0		0
Log likelihood	−2268		−2261
∗Coefficients statistically significant at the 10% level in bold.

Table IV. Causes of deforestation in the dry and spiny forest regions.

Dependent variable = forest lost (ha)	Model I		Model II
	Coefficient	z	Coefficient	z
Population (log)	781.25	1.50	461.19	0.98
Fertility rate (children/100 women)	5.31	0.17	−3.68	−0.12
Population Density (#/km^2)	−0.16	−0.01	−0.15	−0.01
Percent of population living in poverty	−7.59	−0.52	−13.57	−0.75
No land titles in commune (dummy)	−520.13	−1.05	−743.82	−1.50
Distance to nearest city (log)	−88.94	−0.41	−93.80	−0.42
National road access (dummy)	191.39	0.33	76.73	0.13
Provincial road access (dummy)	244.64	0.50	571.90	1.34
Percent of population engaged in agriculture	24.70	1.68	21.39	1.61
Percent of rice production exported	−14.99	−1.43	−15.95	−1.59
Percent of maize production exported	13.53	1.58	20.59	2.38
Rice as a major crop (dummy)	69.66	0.08	296.69	0.36
Maize as a major crop (dummy)	594.50	0.60	560.47	0.70
Climatic/geographic variables
Total commune area	0.00	−0.44	0.00	0.37
Area forested in 1990	0.11	2.97	0.09	2.44
Precipitation (log of mm)	−23.13	−0.03	264.85	0.28
Elevation (log of meters)	146.62	0.61	−52.83	−0.30
Mahafaly			51.83	2.19
Antanosy			5.68	0.40
Sakalava			−12.87	−1.39
Bara			−0.93	−0.07
Antandroy			1.81	0.22
Tsimehety			31.35	2.80
Mill's lambda	−1251.63	−1.54	−1763.43	−2.27
Constant	−8242.99	−1.28	−5791.44	−0.68
N	225		225
Pseudo R ^2	0		0
Log likelihood	−1874		−1859

Table V. Causes of deforestation in the mangrove forests.

Dependent variable = forest lost (log of ha)	Coef.	t
Population (log)	−75.98	−0.62
Fertility rate (children/100 women)	13.10	1.65
Population Density (#/km^2)	0.17	1.81
Percent of population living in poverty	−1.11	−0.21
No land titles in commune (dummy)	125.91	0.82
Distance to nearest city (log)	−31.84	−0.53
National road access (dummy)	−23.76	−0.14
Provincial road access (dummy)	0.34	0.00
Percent of population engaged in agriculture	4.33	0.94
Rice as a major crop (dummy)	3.31	1.16
Mangrove in 1990	0.10	3.66
Total area forested in 1990	0.00	−0.06
Constant	0.00	−0.62
	−1102.38	−0.92
N	96
Pseudo R ^2	0.0349
Log likelihood	−274.431