Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s soft power: preliminary evidence

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
VARIABLES	Obs.	Mean	SD	Min	Max
SP	158	51.35	19.20	5	96
Post 2013 Dummy	228	0.500	0.501	0	1
BnR	228	0.368	0.483	0	1
ODI	217	659.5	1,566	−814.9	16,981
ln(ODI)	202	5.047	2.188	−2.408	9.740

Note: Total number of countries available in the Pew International Poll of Soft Power is 38. The period is from to 2016. SP refers to China’s Soft Power (Pew International Poll); Post 2013 Dummy equals 1 if year ≥2014 and zero otherwise. BnR is a dummy indicating the Belt and Road Countries; ODI is China’s overseas direct investment in million US dollar; ln(ODI) is the natural logarithm of ODI.

Figure 1. China’s ODI and Soft Power: 2011–2016.

Note: The vertical axis refers to the Pew International Poll of Soft Power of China perceived by host country and the horizontal axis is China’s ODI in host country. The period is from 2011 to 2016.

Table 2. Changes of China’s Soft Power due to the Belt and Road Initiative.

Dependent Variable:	(1)	(2)
Soft Power	Fixed Effects	Fixed Effects
Post 2013 Dummy	−3.706***	−10.22***
	(1.329)	(2.500)
BnR
BnR* Post 2013 Dummy	1.378	1.114
	(2.364)	(2.333)
Constant	53.17***	55.91***
	(0.621)	(1.672)
Observations	158	158
R-squared	0.086	0.243
Country-fixed effects	Yes	Yes
Year-fixed effects	No	Yes

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Total number of countries available in the Pew International Poll of Soft Power is 38. The period is from 2011 to 2016. BnR refers to the Belt and Road countries; Post 2013 Dummy is a dummy variable that equals to one if a year is 2014 and after and zero otherwise.

Table 3. Effects of ODI on China’s Soft Power.

Dependent Variable:	Fixed Effects (1)	Fixed Effects (2)	Fixed Effects (3)
Soft Power
ln(ODI)	1.661**	1.420**	1.775***
	(0.652)	(0.633)	(0.539)
Post 2013 Dummy		−5.554*	−15.14***
		(2.930)	(3.713)
ln(ODI)* Post 2013 Dummy		0.213	0.334
		(0.498)	(0.492)
Constant	47.51***	44.37***	46.38***
	(3.577)	(3.241)	(3.153)
Observations	158	139	139
R-squared	0.244	0.136	0.331
Country-fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year-fixed effects	Yes	No	Yes

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Total number of countries available in the Pew International Poll of Soft Power is 38. The period is from 2011 to 2016. Post 2013 Dummy is a dummy variable that equals to one if a year is 2014 and after and zero otherwise; BnR is a dummy variable indicating the Belt and Road Countries; ODI is China’s overseas direct investment in million US dollar; ln(ODI) is the natural logarithm of ODI.

Table 4. Impacts of Investment on BRI countries on China’s Soft Power.

Dependent Variable:	(1)	(2)	(3)
Soft Power	OLS	Fixed effects	Fixed Effects
BnR	−17.48**
	(6.781)
Post 2013 Dummy	11.84	−1.879	−11.78***
	(7.218)	(3.869)	(4.295)
BnR* Post 2013 Dummy	−14.07	−7.021	−5.550
	(11.39)	(5.876)	(5.367)
ln(ODI)	−1.855**	1.363	2.069**
	(0.885)	(0.923)	(0.842)
Ln(ODI)*BnR	5.081***	0.0864	−0.480
	(1.280)	(1.219)	(1.300)
ln(ODI)* Post 2013 Dummy	−1.903*	−0.451	−0.210
	(1.135)	(0.524)	(0.448)
ln(ODI)*BnR* Post 2013 Dummy	0.662	1.457	1.023
	(2.170)	(1.039)	(1.014)
Constant	58.32***	44.50***	45.46***
	(5.365)	(3.552)	(4.030)
Observations	139	139	139
R-squared	0.116	0.156	0.339
Country-fixed effects	No	Yes	Yes
Year-fixed effects	No	No	Yes

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Total number of countries available in the Pew International Poll of Soft Power is 38. The period is from 2011 to 2016. Soft Power refers to China’s Soft Power (Pew International Poll); Post 2013 Dummy is a dummy variable that equals to one if a year is 2014 and after and zero otherwise; BnR is a dummy variable indicating the Belt and Road Countries; ODI is China’s overseas direct investment in million US dollar; and ln(ODI) is the natural logarithm of ODI.

Table 5. China’s BRI and Soft Power: Differential Impacts along the Belt and Road.

	(1)	(2)	(3)
VARIABLES	OLS	Fixed effects	Fixed Effects
Land	−24.72
	(15.34)
Maritime	10.38*
	(5.794)
D2014	29.27***	−1.317	−7.290
	(7.486)	(4.141)	(4.974)
Land*D2014	−8.373	−28.05***	−26.37***
	(20.91)	(7.544)	(8.332)
Maritime*D2014	−49.92***	−3.043	−2.492
	(9.760)	(6.198)	(5.962)
Ln(ODI)	0.580	1.186*	1.632**
	(0.963)	(0.688)	(0.700)
Ln(ODI)*Land	4.498*	−0.935	−1.572
	(2.681)	(0.739)	(1.244)
Ln(ODI)*D2014	−4.988***	−0.594	−0.517
	(1.181)	(0.577)	(0.519)
Ln(ODI)*Land*D2014	1.703	5.717***	5.432***
	(4.046)	(1.459)	(1.760)
Ln(ODI)*Maritime*D2014	7.249***	0.881	0.721
	(1.485)	(0.973)	(0.904)
Constant	45.39***	46.99***	48.51***
	(6.136)	(3.134)	(3.771)
Observations	158	158	158
R-squared	0.123	0.188	0.315
Country-fixed effects	No	Yes	Yes
Year-fixed effects	No	No	Yes

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. ‘Land’ refers to the Belt and Road countries along the land route while ‘Maritime’ refers to the Belt and Road countries along the Maritime route.