Demographic change and HIV epidemic projections to 2050 for adolescents and young people aged 15-24

Figures & data

Figure 1. Population size (thousands) by age and sex, 2010, 2030 and 2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Figure 2. Number of people living with HIV by age and sex, 2010, 2030 and 2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Table 1. Number of people living with HIV by decade, region, age and sex, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Region	2010		2020			2030			2040			2050
	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010
Eastern and Southern Africa
Adults aged 15–49	14,476,000		15,841,000		9.4	12,284,000		−15.1	8,027,000		−44.6	5,218,000		−64.0
Adults aged 15–24	2,157,000	14.9	1,982,000	12.5	−8.1	1,459,000	11.9	−32.4	885,000	11.0	−59.0	548,000	10.5	−74.6
Girls and women aged 15–24	1,483,000	10.2	1,290,000	8.1	−13.0	913,000	7.4	−38.4	548,000	6.8	−63.0	336,000	6.4	−77.4
Boys and men aged 15–24	675,000	4.7	692,000	4.4	2.6	546,000	4.4	−19.0	337,000	4.2	−50.0	212,000	4.1	−68.5
East Asia and the Pacific
Adults aged 15–49	2,129,000		2,099,000		−1.4	1,693,000		−20.5	1,279,000		−40.0	1,062,000		−50.1
Adults aged 15–24	300,000	14.1	205,000	9.8	−31.7	167,000	9.9	−44.3	135,000	10.5	−55.1	110,000	10.3	−63.4
Girls and women aged 15–24	123,000	5.8	76,000	3.6	−38.7	57,000	3.4	−54.0	44,000	3.5	−64.1	34,000	3.2	−72.3
Boys and men aged 15–24	177,000	8.3	129,000	6.2	−26.8	110,000	6.5	−37.6	91,000	7.1	−48.8	76,000	7.1	−57.3
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Adults aged 15–49	680,000		1,158,000		70.3	1,263,000		85.8	1,178,000		73.3	1,171,000		72.3
Adults aged 15–24	69,000	10.1	68,000	5.9	−1.5	88,000	7.0	27.5	92,000	7.8	33.2	72,000	6.1	4.2
Girls and women aged 15–24	33,000	4.8	34,000	2.9	2.5	44,000	3.5	34.9	45,000	3.8	35.9	35,000	3.0	7.4
Boys and men aged 15–24	36,000	5.3	34,000	3.0	−5.2	44,000	3.5	20.7	47,000	4.0	30.7	37,000	3.1	1.4
Latin America and the Caribbean
Adults aged 15–49	1,386,000		1,662,000		20.0	1,633,000		17.8	1,386,000		0.1	1,168,000		−15.7
Adults aged 15–24	224,000	16.2	214,000	12.9	−4.5	187,000	11.4	−16.8	167,000	12.1	−25.4	142,000	12.2	−36.6
Girls and women aged 15–24	92,000	6.7	86,000	5.2	−6.6	76,000	4.7	−17.3	69,000	5.0	−25.6	58,000	5.0	−36.8
Boys and men aged 15–24	132,000	9.5	128,000	7.7	−3.0	110,000	6.8	−16.4	99,000	7.1	−25.3	84,000	7.2	−36.5
Middle East and North Africa
Adults aged 15–49	119,000		150,000		26.3	156,000		31.1	145,000		21.5	141,000		18.8
Adults aged 15–24	16,000	13.7	14,000	9.1	−16.3	16,000	10.1	−4.0	16,000	11.0	−2.4	14,000	10.1	−13.1
Girls and women aged 15–24	7,000	5.6	6,000	4.1	−6.0	7,000	4.7	11.1	7,000	5.1	12.5	7,000	4.7	1.6
Boys and men aged 15–24	10,000	8.2	7,000	5.0	−23.3	8,000	5.4	−14.2	9,000	5.9	−12.5	8,000	5.3	−23.0
North America
Adults aged 15–49	567,000		628,000		10.9	624,000		10.2	529,000		−6.7	432,000		−23.7
Adults aged 15–24	74,000	13.0	58,000	9.2	−21.4	48,000	7.7	−34.4	40,000	7.6	−45.3	33,000	7.7	−55.0
Girls and women aged 15–24	20,000	3.6	16,000	2.6	−19.7	14,000	2.2	−32.1	12,000	2.2	−43.5	10,000	2.2	−53.4
Boys and men aged 15–24	53,000	9.4	42,000	6.6	−22.1	35,000	5.5	−35.2	29,000	5.4	−46.0	24,000	5.5	−55.5
South Asia
Adults aged 15–49	2,282,000		2,307,000		1.1	1,795,000		−21.3	1,363,000		−40.3	1,013,000		−55.6
Adults aged 15–24	260,000	11.4	231,000	10.0	−11.0	161,000	9.0	−38.0	103,000	7.6	−60.2	71,000	7.0	−72.8
Girls and women aged 15–24	121,000	5.3	108,000	4.7	−10.8	76,000	4.2	−37.6	48,000	3.6	−60.0	33,000	3.3	−72.6
Boys and men aged 15–24	139,000	6.1	123,000	5.3	−11.2	86,000	4.8	−38.4	55,000	4.0	−60.5	38,000	3.7	−73.0
West and Central Africa
Adults aged 15–49	4,485,000		4,480,000		−0.1	4,389,000		−2.1	4,229,000		−5.7	4,094,000		−8.7
Adults aged 15–24	787,000	17.6	788,000	17.6	0.1	733,000	16.7	−6.9	620,000	14.7	−21.3	529,000	12.9	−32.9
Girls and women aged 15–24	488,000	10.9	474,000	10.6	−2.9	443,000	10.1	−9.2	375,000	8.9	−23.2	323,000	7.9	−33.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	299,000	6.7	314,000	7.0	5.0	290,000	6.6	−3.0	245,000	5.8	−18.1	206,000	5.0	−31.1
Western Europe
Adults aged 15–49	313,000		311,000		−0.8	293,000		−6.6	268,000		−14.4	255,000		−18.6
Adults aged 15–24	37,000	11.7	31,000	10.1	−14.2	30,000	10.3	−17.3	28,000	10.4	−23.3	27,000	10.5	−26.7
Girls and women aged 15–24	13,000	4.3	11,000	3.7	−14.8	11,000	3.8	−17.6	10,000	3.8	−23.9	10,000	3.8	−26.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	23,000	7.4	20,000	6.4	−13.9	19,000	6.6	−17.2	18,000	6.7	−22.9	17,000	6.7	−26.5
Global
Adults aged 15–49	26,437,000		28,635,000		8.3	24,130,000		−8.7	18,404,000		−30.4	14,555,000		−44.9
Adults aged 15–24	3,925,000	14.8	3,592,000	12.5	−8.5	2,890,000	12.0	−26.4	2,087,000	11.3	−46.8	1,545,000	10.6	−60.6
Girls and women aged 15–24	2,381,000	9.0	2,102,000	7.3	−11.7	1,641,000	6.8	−31.1	1,158,000	6.3	−51.4	845,000	5.8	−64.5
Boys and men aged 15–24	1,544,000	5.8	1,491,000	5.2	−3.5	1,249,000	5.2	−19.1	929,000	5.0	−39.8	700,000	4.8	−54.6

Figure 3. Number of new HIV infections among adolescent and young people, by sex and five-year age group, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Table 2. Number of new HIV infections by decade, region, age and sex, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Region	2010		2020			2030			2040			2050
	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010
Eastern and Southern Africa
Adults aged 15–49	951,000		612,000		−35.7	400,000		−58.0	264,000		−72.2	181,000		−81.0
Adults aged 15–24	398,000	41.9	247,000	40.4	−37.9	154,000	38.6	−61.2	96,000	36.2	−76.0	62,000	34.5	−84.3
Girls and women aged 15–24	266,000	28.0	166,000	27.2	−37.5	104,000	26.0	−61.0	64,000	24.2	−76.0	41,000	22.6	−84.6
Boys and men aged 15–24	132,000	13.9	81,000	13.2	−38.7	50,000	12.6	−61.8	32,000	12.1	−75.8	22,000	11.9	−83.7
East Asia and the Pacific
Adults aged 15–49	165,000		133,000		−19.4	105,000		−36.1	90,000		−45.3	82,000		−50.4
Adults aged 15–24	64,000	38.5	43,000	32.4	−32.2	32,000	30.6	−49.2	27,000	29.4	−58.3	23,000	27.8	−64.2
Girls and women aged 15–24	25,000	15.2	15,000	11.0	−41.9	10,000	9.5	−60.2	8,000	8.7	−68.7	7,000	8.0	−73.8
Boys and men aged 15–24	38,000	23.3	28,000	21.4	−25.9	22,000	21.1	−42.1	19,000	20.7	−51.5	16,000	19.8	−57.9
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Adults aged 15–49	97,000		123,000		27.0	118,000		20.9	106,000		9.4	102,000		5.4
Adults aged 15–24	19,000	19.9	17,000	13.6	−12.9	22,000	18.6	13.5	21,000	20.2	11.2	17,000	16.5	−12.2
Girls and women aged 15–24	8,000	8.6	8,000	6.2	−8.3	10,000	8.5	19.5	9,000	8.8	11.2	8,000	7.4	−9.8
Boys and men aged 15–24	11,000	11.2	9,000	7.4	−16.4	12,000	10.1	8.9	12,000	11.4	11.2	9,000	9.2	−14.0
Latin America and the Caribbean
Adults aged 15–49	105,000		104,000		−0.5	97,000		−7.3	88,000		−16.3	78,000		−25.6
Adults aged 15–24	41,000	38.8	38,000	35.9	−7.7	33,000	33.8	−19.0	30,000	33.7	−27.3	26,000	33.1	−36.4
Girls and women aged 15–24	15,000	14.7	14,000	13.6	−7.8	13,000	13.0	−18.3	11,000	13.0	−26.3	10,000	12.8	−35.2
Boys and men aged 15–24	25,000	24.1	23,000	22.3	−7.7	20,000	20.9	−19.5	18,000	20.7	−27.9	16,000	20.3	−37.2
Middle East and North Africa
Adults aged 15–49	12,000		11,000		−3.4	11,000		−8.6	10,000		−15.7	9,000		−20.0
Adults aged 15–24	3,000	29.7	3,000	24.6	−19.9	3,000	29.0	−10.8	3,000	30.3	−13.9	3,000	29.2	−21.4
Girls and women aged 15–24	1,000	11.3	1,000	10.4	−11.3	1,000	12.5	1.3	1,000	13.1	−2.1	1,000	12.9	−8.7
Boys and men aged 15–24	2,000	18.4	2,000	14.2	−25.1	2,000	16.4	−18.2	2,000	17.1	−21.2	1,000	16.2	−29.2
North America
Adults aged 15–49	43,000		34,000		−21.3	28,000		−34.4	23,000		−46.0	19,000		−55.5
Adults aged 15–24	14,000	33.0	11,000	31.3	−25.3	9,000	31.4	−37.6	7,000	31.9	−47.8	6,000	31.7	−57.3
Girls and women aged 15–24	4,000	8.5	3,000	8.3	−23.6	2,000	8.3	−35.8	2,000	8.5	−46.3	2,000	8.5	−55.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	11,000	24.5	8,000	23.0	−25.9	7,000	23.0	−38.2	5,000	23.5	−48.3	4,000	23.3	−57.7
South Asia
Adults aged 15–49	111,000		87,000		−21.4	68,000		−38.5	56,000		−49.6	50,000		−55.4
Adults aged 15–24	44,000	39.8	31,000	35.0	−30.8	21,000	31.0	−52.1	15,000	27.3	−65.4	12,000	24.4	−72.6
Girls and women aged 15–24	20,000	17.6	13,000	15.2	−31.7	9,000	13.5	−52.7	7,000	11.8	−66.1	5,000	10.6	−73.2
Boys and men aged 15–24	25,000	22.2	17,000	19.8	−30.1	12,000	17.5	−51.6	9,000	15.5	−64.8	7,000	13.9	−72.2
West and Central Africa
Adults aged 15–49	271,000		249,000		−8.0	233,000		−14.0	218,000		−19.4	210,000		−22.3
Adults aged 15–24	127,000	46.8	115,000	46.3	−9.1	104,000	44.7	−17.9	90,000	41.0	−29.4	82,000	39.1	−35.0
Girls and women aged 15–24	77,000	28.4	69,000	27.9	−9.8	64,000	27.3	−17.5	55,000	25.2	−28.4	51,000	24.2	−33.7
Boys and men aged 15–24	50,000	18.4	46,000	18.4	−8.0	41,000	17.4	−18.5	34,000	15.8	−30.8	31,000	14.9	−37.1
Western Europe
Adults aged 15–49	22,000		20,000		−10.4	18,000		−19.0	17,000		−23.7	16,000		−26.3
Adults aged 15–24	7,000	32.3	6,000	32.7	−9.3	6,000	34.3	−13.9	6,000	34.2	−19.1	6,000	34.3	−21.8
Girls and women aged 15–24	2,000	11.0	2,000	11.1	−9.4	2,000	11.6	−14.4	2,000	11.6	−19.8	2,000	11.6	−22.1
Boys and men aged 15–24	5,000	21.3	4,000	21.6	−9.2	4,000	22.7	−13.7	4,000	22.7	−18.8	4,000	22.6	−21.7
Global
Adults aged 15–49	1,777,000		1,374,000		−22.7	1,078,000		−39.3	872,000		−50.9	748,000		−57.9
Adults aged 15–24	718,000	40.4	510,000	37.1	−28.9	385,000	35.7	−46.4	294,000	33.7	−59.0	237,000	31.7	−67.0
Girls and women aged 15–24	419,000	23.6	292,000	21.2	−30.4	215,000	20.0	−48.7	159,000	18.3	−62.0	126,000	16.9	−69.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	298,000	16.8	218,000	15.9	−26.8	170,000	15.7	−43.1	135,000	15.5	−54.7	111,000	14.8	−62.9

Figure 4. Percent distribution of new HIV infections among adolescents and young people by region, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

UN Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). UNAIDS 2018 estimates. 2018.

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Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in national HIV estimates files published through UNAIDS at http://www.unaids.org/en/dataanalysis/datatools/spectrum-epp.