Estimating non-communicable disease treatment costs using probability-based cost estimation

Figures & data

Table 1. Symmetric approximation

Cost Component	Adult					Child
	Low	Most Likely	High	Variance	Mean	Low	Most Likely	High	Variance	Mean
Human Resources	9.04	1768.925	4232.6	750,149	2004	12.97	303.81975	2334.6	266,629	884
Equipment	0.07	3.23	7.59	2	4	0.08	0.326875	4.97	1	2
Diagnostics	0	94.3025	677.52	22,446	275	0	0	63.74	226	21
Medical Consumables	1.03	214.2875	1436.34	99,972	551	0	48.61625	474.6	11,363	174
Medicine	0	239.48875	862.4	33,031	367	0	32.535625	162.19	1227	65
Total				905,600	3182				279,446	1146
Std Dev					951.630					528.626
Coefficient of Variation					29.90%					46.12%

Table

µ Average Cost (mean) = (low + most likely + high)/3

σ^2 Variance = σ^2

Table 2. NCD treatment services for adults. Table 2 follows the projected services formula below

Province	Population	PHC Headcount	Uitilisation Rates	Services
Eastern Cape	4,615,040	11,841,466	2	1,337,043
Free State	2,078,879	4,073,217	2	602,281
Gauteng	11,797,965	15,689,380	2	2,563,529
KwaZulu-Natal	7,975,441	20,261,387	2	2,310,599
Limpopo	4,137,210	9,777,467	2	1,198,609
Mpumalanga	3,290,020	6,468,022	2	953,166
Northern Cape	918,972	2,020,281	2	266,239
North West	2,915,078	5,644,648	2	844,540
Western Cape	5,221,073	10,689,597	2	1,512,619
Total	42,949,678	86,465,465	2	11,588,626

STATSSA and DHIS; Population >20 yrs older and PHC Headcount > 20 older.

Table 3. NCD treatment services for children

Province	Population	PHC Headcount	Uitilisation Rates	Services
Eastern Cape	2,097,236	2,057,253	1	1,063,299
Free State	808,586	467,294	1	409,953
Gauteng	3,378,151	1,958,824	1	1,712,723
KwaZulu-Natal	3,313,645	3,505,659	1	1,680,018
Limpopo	1,845,374	1,630,380	1	935,605
Mpumalanga	1,302,167	1,046,369	1	660,199
Northern Cape	344,903	259,492	1	174,866
North West	1,112,082	729,783	1	563,826
Western Cape	1,623,199	1,588,620	1	822,962
Total	15,825,343	13,243,674	1	8,023,449

STATSSA and DHIS; Population 5–19; PHC Headcount 5–9 and 10–19.

Table 4. Normal distribution inputs

	Adult	Child
Mean	ZAR 3 182	ZAR 1 146
Variance	905,600	279,446
Std. Dev	951,630	528,626

Table 5. Total costs at different probabilities in 2020, in thousands of South African Rand and US Dollars

Probability	Population	Unit Cost (ZAR)	Over/Underrun (%)	Unit Cost (USD)	Services	Total Cost (ZAR)	Total Cost (USD)
50%	Adult	3182	50/50	177	11,588,626	36,87,50,07,932	2,05,31,57,128
	Child	1146	50/50	64	8,023,449	9,19,48,72,554	51,19,59,703
75%	Adult	3824	25/75	213	11,588,626	44,31,49,05,824	2,46,74,01,903
	Child	1503	25/75	84	8,023,449	12,05,92,43,847	67,14,44,532
90%	Adult	4402	10/90	245	11,588,626	51,01,31,31,652	2,84,03,51,249
	Child	1824	10/90	102	8,023,449	14,63,47,70,976	81,48,46,858