Framing the future of the COVID-19 response operations in 2022 in the WHO African region

Figures & data

Figure 1. Virus evolution Genomic spread of SARS CoV 2 VOC.

Source: Nextstrain based on GISAID data: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global?f_region=Africa.

Table

Box 1: Scenarios Scenario 1: continuous trend with similar virus and response actions (status quo), with no re-infection – Optimistic Scenario but highly unlikely Scenario 2: continuous trend with similar virus and response actions but varied effects of immunisation on the number of cases and deaths Scenario 3: Upsurge of new cases due to a high level of re-infection Scenario 4: A new VOC with higher transmissibility and/or virulence (worst-case scenario)

Figure 2. Show predicted scenario 1 at the current level of adhesion to public health measures, rates of contacts, re-infection, variants and immunisation levels; the disease is predicted to remain in the community, though with lower peaks in 2022.

Figure 3. Cases as a percentage of the population at different levels of immunisations at the end of 2022.

Figure 4. Percentage reduction of deaths among the reported cases with varying levels of immunisations.

Figure 5. Predicted scenario 2 with risk of re-infection at 40%.

Figure 6. Predicted scenario 2 with risk of re-infection at 80%.

Figure 7. Predicted scenario 3 with the introduction of a new variant.

Table

Box 2: Main Strategic orientations of the COVID-19 response in Africa in 2022 and beyond Reinforcing COVID-19 surveillance capacities (through multisource surveillance systems such as indicator-based and event-based surveillance for hospital, primary healthcare and community level, hospital surveillance for new cases and essential services implications, using II and SARI sentinel surveillance) and scaling up COVID-19 testing and genomic/variant surveillance capacities. Defining and implementing adapted community-based response actions Improving the CM capacities through increasing oxygen and treatment capacities from the health system perspective Increasing the vaccination uptake through community engagement, advocacy and ownership and updating vaccination strategies and targets, based on the evolving epidemiological scenario and on emerging evidence on the performance of vaccines, effectiveness against different variants Reinforcing COVID-19 M&E, data and intelligence collection and use for orienting and guiding response actions Maintaining and reinforcing critical human resource capacities in WCOs and member states countries to respond to upsurge of COVID-19 cases Augment the medical and non-medical supplies and other material and equipment for addressing timely operational needs required by member states countries Reinforce and diversify the collaboration and coordination with existing and new partners (academia, regional economic and political entities, CSOs, Private sector organisations) Reinforcing and scaling-up fundamental and operational research to guide response actions, Transitioning progressively COVID-19 response capacities into the formal health system.