Did the COVID-19 quarantine policies applied in Cochabamba, Bolivia mitigated cases successfully? an interrupted time series analysis

Figures & data

Table 1. Quarantine policy timepoints.

Table 2. Number and proportion of COVID-19 testing stratified by sex and healthcare subsector.

Variable	Stratified by Sex		Stratified by Sector
	Women	Men	Church	NGOs	Private	Public	Social Security
N (% OF TOTAL)	563912 (53.78)	484522 (46.21)	4912 (0.51)	8854 (0.92)	218603 (22.92)	620187 (65.03)	101102 (10.60)
AGE MEAN (SD)	37.53 (18.69)	37.88 (19.10)	33.03 (19.39)	34.85 (17.91)	41.44 (17.76)	35.89 (18.82)	43.51 (19.58)
MEN (% OF TOTAL)	-	-	1920 (39.1)	4366 (49.3)	120340 (55.1)	271956 (43.9)	44895 (44.4)
LABORATORY RESULT (% OF TOTAL) *
NEGATIVE	404888 (80.5)	354834 (81.1)	4123 (88.0)	6594 (78.7)	168132 (80.4)	463261 (82.2)	47220 (70.1)
POSITIVE	97761 (19.4)	82525 (18.9)	564 (12.0)	1784 (21.3)	40957 (19.6)	100491 (17.8)	20159 (29.9)
LABORATORY METHOD (% OF TOTAL)
SEROLOGIC METHODS
ELISA	1555 (0.3)	1348 (0.3)	-	7 (0.1)	2793 (1.3)	9 (0.0)	48 (0.1)
ANTIBODY	2532 (0.5)	2638 (0.6)	-	22 (0.3)	2621 (1.2)	1266 (0.2)	432 (0.5)
MOLECULAR METHODS
ANTIGEN TESTS	386368 (72.7)	303888 (66.2)	4863 (99.9)	8683 (99.7)	92679 (43.0)	435678 (73.5)	61298 (75.8)
RT- PCR	138466 (26.0)	149103 (32.5)	-	-	117173 (54.3)	151417 (25.5)	18899 (23.4)
GENEEXPER-PCR	2894 (0.5)	2386 (0.5)	-	-	318 (0.1)	4723 (0.8)	239 (0.3)

Figure 1. COVID-19 positive incidence rates over time and quarantine period.

Table A1. Quasipoisson model exponentiated coefficients with and without seasonal adjustment.

	Model 1			Model 2 (Season Dummy)			Model 3 (Season Dummy Spline)			Model 4 (Month Dummy)
Predictors	Log-Mean	CI	p	Log-Mean	CI	p	Log-Mean	CI	p	Log-Mean	CI	P
Baseline (Intercept, Q1)	-0.51	-0.62 – -0.40	<0.001	-0.97	-1.09 – -0.85	<0.001	218.19	184.96–251.30	<0.001	-0.21	-0.37 – -0.05	0.009
Quarantine Slope Change (Q1)	-0.01	-0.01 – -0.01	<0.001	-0.01	-0.01 – -0.01	<0.001	-0.01	-0.01 – -0.01	<0.001	-0.01	-0.01 – -0.01	<0.001
No-quarantine Change (NQ1)	-1.45	-1.79 – -1.13	<0.001	-0.82	-1.12 – -0.53	<0.001	-0.82	-1.12 – -0.53	<0.001	-1.06	-1.41 – -0.74	<0.001
No-quarantine Slope (NQ1)	0.02	0.02–0.03	<0.001	0.02	0.01–0.02	<0.001	0.02	0.01–0.02	<0.001	0.02	0.01–0.02	<0.001
Quarantine Change (Q2)	0.02	-0.20–0.24	0.866	0.07	-0.12–0.25	0.477	0.07	-0.12–0.25	0.477	-0.12	-0.33–0.10	0.287
Quarantine Slope (Q2)	-0.03	-0.05 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.03	-0.04 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.03	-0.04 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.03	-0.04 – -0.01	<0.001
No-quarantine Change (NQ2)	-1.10	-1.36 – -0.85	<0.001	-0.57	-0.79 – -0.34	<0.001	-0.57	-0.79 – -0.34	<0.001	-1.12	-1.37 – -0.87	<0.001
No-quarantine Slope (NQ2)	0.03	0.02–0.05	<0.001	0.03	0.02–0.04	<0.001	0.03	0.02–0.04	<0.001	0.03	0.02–0.05	<0.001
Quarantine Change (Q3)	0.39	0.30–0.49	<0.001	0.25	0.17–0.34	<0.001	0.25	0.17–0.34	<0.001	0.39	0.29–0.48	<0.001
Quarantine Slope (Q3)	-0.02	-0.03 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.02	-0.02 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.02	-0.02 – -0.02	<0.001	-0.02	-0.03 – -0.02	<0.001
No-quarantine Change (NQ3)	-0.91	-1.08 – -0.73	<0.001	-0.42	-0.58 – -0.27	<0.001	-0.42	-0.58 – -0.27	<0.001	-0.91	-1.08 – -0.74	<0.001
No-quarantine Slope (NQ3)	0.02	0.02–0.03	<0.001	0.02	0.02–0.02	<0.001	0.02	0.02–0.02	<0.001	0.02	0.02–0.02	<0.001
Season Dummy Variable				0.46	0.39–0.53	<0.001
Season Spline							-277.14	-319.11 – -235.03	<0.001
Month Dummy Variable										-0.05	-0.07 – -0.03	<0.001
Observations	579
R^2 Nagelkerke	1.000

Table

Model 1	COVID -19 Positive Rate
Predictors	Incidence Rate Ratios	CI
Baseline (Intercept, Q1)	0.603	0.540–0.672
Quarantine Slope Change (Q1)	0.990	0.988–0.993
No-quarantine Change (NQ1)	0.234	0.167–0.324
No-quarantine Slope (NQ1)	1.022	1.018–1.026
Quarantine Change (Q2)	1.019	0.817–1.266
Quarantine Slope (Q2)	0.967	0.956–0.978
No-quarantine Change (NQ2)	0.331	0.257–0.429
No-quarantine Slope (NQ2)	1.036	1.024–1.048
Quarantine Change (Q3)	1.484	1.347–1.636
Quarantine Slope(Q3)	0.976	0.973–0.978
No-quarantine Change (NQ3)	0.404	0.340–0.480
No-quarantine Slope (NQ3)	1.023	1.021–1.026
Days of observación	579

Data availability statement

Daily count data used in this study is available upon request.