Deterioration in youth employment, social contexts, and marriage decline in Japan and South Korea

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

	Japan				South Korea
	Men		Women		Men		Women
	M	SD	M	SD	M	SD	M	SD
Event of First marriage (=1, 0)	0.10		0.17		0.13		0.17
Universities and graduate schools (=1, 0)	0.55		0.44		0.36		0.44
Regular employment (=1, 0)	0.61		0.57		0.73		0.73
Annual income (centerting)	0.00	1.93	0.00	1.52	0.00	1.27	0.00	1.06
Eldest son / daughter (=1, 0)	0.50		0.43		0.40		0.43
Living with parents (=1, 0)	0.73		0.76		0.63		0.73
Large company (=1, 0)	0.19		0.18		0.16		0.20
Age (centerting)	0.00	5.24	0.00	5.05	0.00	3.95	0.00	4.12

Figure 1. Predicted interaction effect of educational background and annual income of Japanese men (odds ratio and its margin with 95 per cent Cls).

Figure 2. Predicted interaction effect of eldest son and annual income of Japanese men (odds ratio and its margin with 95 per cent Cls).

Table 2. Discrete time logit models estimating first marriage in Japan (odds ratio).

	Men								Women
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Universities and graduate schools	1.173		1.261		1.151		1.180		0.955		0.694	†	0.951		0.926
Regular employment	2.039	***	2.183	**	2.017	***	2.039	***	1.370	*	1.039		1.353	*	1.371	*
Annual income	1.192	***	1.145	**	1.134	*	1.191	***	1.061		1.289	**	0.981		1.060
Eldest son / daughter	0.757	†	0.751	*	0.669	*	0.757	†	0.886		0.888		0.903		0.882
Living with parents	0.610	***	0.622	**	0.626	**	0.611	**	0.721	*	0.717	*	0.672	**	0.722	*
Universities*Regular employment			0.834								1.686	†
Universities*Annual income			1.155	†							0.962
Regular employment*Annual income			0.939								0.771	**
Eldest son / daughter*Annual income					1.169	*							0.981
Annual income*Living with parents					0.986								1.142	†
Large company							1.041								0.964
Universities*Large company							0.962								1.166
Age	0.959	*	0.956	*	0.959	*	0.959	*	1.021		1.017		1.020		1.022
Age squared	0.996		0.996		0.996		0.996		0.984	***	0.985	***	0.984	***	0.984	***
Risk period: 1 year	1.109		1.117		1.113		1.109		1.150		1.155		1.155		1.152
2 year	1.308		1.309		1.327		1.307		1.253		1.260		1.258		1.251
3 year	1.292		1.292		1.318		1.291		1.363	†	1.363	†	1.373	†	1.363	†
4 year	1.355		1.349		1.368		1.354		1.201		1.209		1.211		1.198
5 year	0.863		0.861		0.861		0.862		1.203		1.215		1.218		1.199
6 year	1.189		1.196		1.197		1.187		1.233		1.263		1.249		1.229
7 year	1.945	**	1.950	**	1.983	**	1.942	**	1.024		1.056		1.039		1.022
Number of person-years	4,035		4,035		4,035		4,035		3,770		3,770		3,770		3,770
−2LL	2431.7		2425.1		2422.8		2431.6		3242.2		3226.2		3237.6		3241.7
χ2	122.8	***	123.9	***	127.7	***	123.5	***	80.3	***	85.6	***	80.3	***	80.5	***
d.f.	14		17		16		16		14		17		16		16

†p < 0.1 *p < 0.05 **p < 0.01 ***p < 0.001

Source: own calculation based on JLPS waves 1–10

Figure 3. Predicted interaction effect of living with parents and annual income of Japanese women (odds ratio and its margin with 95 per cent Cls).

Figure 4. Predicted interaction effect of educational background and annual income of Korean men (odds ratio and its margin with 95 per cent Cls).

Table 3. Discrete time logit models estimating first marriage in Korea (odds ratio).

	Men								Women
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Universities and graduate schools	1.521	*	1.898		1.486	*	1.458		0.931		0.556		0.938		0.819
Regular employment	1.886	**	2.161	*	1.869	**	1.912		1.134		0.848		1.181		0.799
Annual income	1.270	***	1.300	**	1.271	*	1.214	†	1.287	**	1.136		1.370	*	1.257	†
Eldest son / daughter	1.063		1.073		1.019		1.468	†	0.736	†	0.727	†	0.761		0.719
Living with parents	0.575	**	0.564	**	0.591	**	0.625	*	1.077		1.079		1.081		1.220
Universities*Regular employment			0.789								1.859
Universities*Annual income			0.749	†							1.111
Regular employment*Annual income			1.229								1.109
Eldest son / daughter*Annual income					1.150								0.806
Annual income*Living with parents					0.912								1.003
Large company							2.161	*							0.913
Universities*Large company							0.788								2.672	*
Age	1.015		1.013		1.013		1.005		1.052	†	1.052	†	1.055	†	1.119	**
Age squared	0.991	†	0.992	†	0.991	†	0.991		0.977	***	0.977	***	0.977	***	0.973	**
Risk period: 1 year	0.931		0.929		0.936		1.084		0.878		0.879		0.877		0.959
2 year	0.717		0.719		0.725		0.580		1.221		1.212		1.233		1.419
3 year	0.447	**	0.447	**	0.453	**	0.378	*	0.838		0.836		0.833		1.006
4 year	0.546	*	0.543	*	0.552	*	0.496	†	1.043		1.041		1.034		1.066
5 year	0.937		0.920		0.961		0.713		0.807		0.803		0.792		1.132
6 year	0.769		0.759		0.782		0.696		0.725		0.711		0.716		0.869
7 year	0.521	†	0.506	†	0.540		0.682		0.861		0.829		0.857		1.273
8 year	0.626		0.614		0.644		0.763		0.443	†	0.427	†	0.437	†	0.264	†
Number of person-years	1,795		1,795		1,795		1,036		1,715		1,715		1,715		953
−2LL	1338.3		1331.7		1336.1		810.3		1496.7		1490.2		1494.0		802.9
χ2	69.4	***	69.0	***	72.6	***	53.7	***	48.5	***	54.8	***	49.5	***	47.4	***
d.f.	15		18		17		17		15		18		17		17

†p < 0.1 *p < 0.05 **p < 0.01 ***p < 0.001

Source: own calculation based on KLIPS waves 12–22

Table A. Discrete time logit models estimating first marriage in Japan (Added romantic partner) (odds ratio).

	Men								Women
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Universities and graduate schools	1.082		1.261		1.064		1.114		1.148		0.995		1.147		1.119
Regular employment	1.829	**	2.090	*	1.800	**	1.832	**	1.339	†	1.206		1.329	†	1.336	†
Annual income	1.223	***	1.137		1.111		1.219	***	1.001		1.064		0.952		1.002
Eldest son / daughter	0.759	†	0.757	†	0.655	*	0.754	†	0.915		0.913		0.956		0.915
Living with parents	0.798		0.812		0.788		0.808		0.883		0.877		0.809		0.882
Universities*Regular employment			0.746								1.220
Universities*Annual income			1.145								1.070
Regular employment*Annual income			1.000								0.868
Eldest son / daughter*Annual income					1.235	*							0.900
Annual income*Living with parents					1.025								1.149
Large company							1.373								0.936
Universities*Large company							0.785								1.133
Romantic partner	18.136	***	18.080	***	18.467	***	18.277	***	11.554	***	11.420	***	11.704	***	11.550	***
Age	1.003		1.001		1.004		1.004		1.075	***	1.072	***	1.074	***	1.075	***
Age squared	0.995	†	0.995	†	0.995		0.995	†	0.982	***	0.982	***	0.982	***	0.982	***
Risk period: 1 year	1.242		1.248		1.235		1.230		1.155		1.153		1.163		1.159
2 year	1.393		1.397		1.420		1.377		1.315		1.318		1.320		1.318
3 year	1.457		1.471	†	1.489	†	1.446		1.366	†	1.361	†	1.387	†	1.369	†
4 year	1.469	†	1.469	†	1.489	†	1.447		1.260		1.257		1.280		1.260
5 year	0.978		0.988		0.985		0.959		1.321		1.324		1.355		1.322
6 year	1.473		1.497		1.519		1.442		1.223		1.232		1.244		1.224
7 year	2.510	***	2.546	**	2.603	***	2.477	**	0.972		0.985		0.987		0.977
Number of person-years	4,004		4,004		4,004		4,004		3,741		3,741		3,741		3,741
−2LL	1856.2		1852.0		1844.3		1854.7		2656.3		2651.0		2649.7		2656.0
χ2	462.2	***	462.4	***	469.1	***	462.6	***	351.3	***	351.6	***	347.4	***	351.2	***
d.f.	15		18		17		17		15		18		17		17

†p < 0.1 *p < 0.05 **p < 0.01 ***p < 0.001

Source: own calculation based on JLPS waves 1–10