Mapping disruptive long-term scenarios using a participatory approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. Case study.

Figure 2. Flowchart of mapping disruptive future scenarios process.

Figure 3. Basic cadastral information (left) and classification by urban land use (right).

Figure 4. Photographs of the dynamic system of changing urban land uses by using markers.

Figure 5. Urban land uses representation by pixels (left) and markers (right).

Figure 6. Photograph taken during the participatory mapping workshop: sharing and discussion among the experts and stakeholders. Note: All participants signed a consent form to make public information for research purposes. Such concerns were aligned and approved by social science ethical commission from the institutions involved in the research.

Table 1. Characteristics of the future scenarios as a result of the first part of the workshop.

Scenario	Urban land use	Gr*	Transport	Green areas	Mix uses	Urban sprawl
1	Multi-family residential	+	Suitable mobility (on foot, by bike)	High public presence	Mix	Low
	Mixed	+
	Single-family residential	−
	Industrial	=
	Commerce and services	++
2	Multi-family residential	+	Suitable mobility (car sharing)	High public presence	Mix	Medium
	Mixed	+
	Single-family residential	++
	Industrial	=
	Commerce and services	++
3	Multi-family residential	=	Private car	Private presence only	Segregation	High
	Mixed	−
	Single-family residential	+++
	Industrial	−
	Commerce and services	=

(−) Loss (−25% of tendency**)

(=) Stability (unchanged)

(+) Small growth (+25% of tendency **)

(++) Moderate growth (+50% of tendency **)

(+++) High growth (+75% of tendency **)

*Gr: Growth rate

** Past trend period (1988–2018)

Figure 7. Outcomes of the participatory mapping workshop.