Explaining Turkey’s Reaction to the September 2017 Independence Referendum in the KRG: Final Divorce or Relationship Reset?

Abstract

In the years preceding the independence referendum held in the KRG in September 2017, the relationship between Ankara and Erbil had blossomed, based on commerce, energy exports, a shared antipathy towards Baghdad and towards the PKK, and interlocking interests between the families and business circles surrounding Turkish president Erdogan and KRG president Barzani. Ankara had even appeared relaxed in the face of Barzani’s repeated insistence that an independence referendum would be held. Ankara’s fierce reaction to the holding of the referendum, and in particular to its extension to the disputed territory of Kirkuk, took Erbil by surprise. This article will seek to explain Ankara’s reaction, and Erbil’s failure to anticipate it. It will explore Ankara’s aspirations in northern Iraq, its unease both with developments in Rojava and with the PKK/YPG presence in northern Iraq, its commitment to the Turkmen of Kirkuk, its growing dissatisfaction with Erbil, and shifts in power and perspective in Ankara. It will also seek to unpick Barzani’s decision to go ahead with a referendum. It will then speculate on possible outcomes for the KRG in Iraq, on whether Baghdad can emerge as a viable longer-term partner for Turkey, and on the extent to which Turkey might be prepared to sustain the economic and political losses that could result from a more permanent and substantive loosening of its ties with Erbil.

Notes

1 ‘Iraq Kurdistan independence referendum planned’, July 1, 2014. Retrieve from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28103124.

2 ‘Kurdistan’s Barzani: Article 140 of Iraqi constitution completed for us and we will not talk about it anymore’, June 27, 2014. Retrieved from http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2014/6/kirkuk829.htm.

3 ‘President Barzani: nothing will bring Kurdistan back to Iraq’, Rudaw, September 24, 2018. Retrieved from http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/2409201711.

4 Policy of zero problems with our neighbours, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/policy-of-zero-problems-with-our-neighbors.en.mfa.

5 ‘Turkey says will export Kurdistan oil amid Iraq clashes’, AFP, June 19, 2014. Retrieved from https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-says-export-kurdistan-oil-065143262.html.

6 For competing Kurdish governance models in Iran and Syria, see Joost Jongerden article in this issue.

7 ‘Erdogan says Sinjar will not be ‘new Qandil’ for PKK’, Middle East Observer, October 27, 2016. Retrieved from https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2016/10/27/erdogan-says-sinjar-will-not-be-new-qandil-for-pkk/.

8 ‘Barzani asks PKK to quit Iraqi Kurdish enclave’, August 2, 2015. Retrieved from http://www.france24.com/en/20150801-kurds-iraq-barzani-pkk-enclave-turkey.

9 ‘Everyone but Barzani’s KDP opposes Turkey: PUK’s Adel Murad’, April 30, 2017. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/everyone-barzani-opposes-turkey-2017-04-30; ‘Turkey air strikes on Kurds in Syria and Iraq spark US concern’, April 25, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39708909.

10 ‘Erdogan: take down the Kurdish flag in Kirkuk or pay a price’, Rudaw, April 4, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/040420173.

11 ‘Turkey to arm Turkmen forces in Iraq’s Kirkuk, after military training’, July 17, 2017. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/turkey-arm-turkmen-kirkuk-2017-07-17.

12 ‘Turkish FM Cavusoglu meets with Barzani over Kurdistan referendum’, August 24, 2017. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/cavusoglu-barzani-referendum-2017-08-24.

13 ‘Iraqi Kurds must give up on independence or go hungry – Erdogan’, September 26, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41398199.

14 ‘Turkey will ‘soon’ close borders with Iraqi Kurdistan, Erdogan says’, October 6, 2017. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/turkey-close-borders-kurdistan-2017-10-06.

15 ‘Turkish President says troubled by Kurdish advance in Syrian Kurdistan’, June 14, 2015. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/turkish-president-says-troubled-by-kurdish-advance-in-syrian-kurdistan-2015-06-14.

16 ‘Syrian Kurds, Arabs, form joint military force, called ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’, October 12, 2015. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/syria-kurds-arabs-form-military-force-2015-10-12.

17 Gordon, Michael R., and Schmitt, Eric, ‘Trump to arm Syrian Kurds, even as Turkey strongly objects’, The New York Times, May 9, 2017. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/us/politics/trump-kurds-syria-army.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0.

18 ‘UN, US, UK present alternative to referendum, Kurdish leadership to study it’, Rudaw, September 14, 2017. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/history-of-the-kurds/544316/?utm_source=twb.

19 For the US position during this process, see Morgan Kaplan article in this issue.

20 ‘PKK confirms arrest of Turkish intelligence MIT officials in Iraqi Kurdistan’. Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/pkk-arrest-turkish-intelligence-2017-08-28.