Postmortem on a Stillborn Census: Bosnia–Herzegovina, 2013–16

Abstract

The 2013 census in Bosnia and Herzegovina produced two competing official results, each exclusively valid in half the country, which is constitutionally an ethno-political consociation. An International Monitoring Operation inadvertently contributed to a breakdown of agreements among the three government statistical agencies conducting the census. Neither result shows with reasonable certainty how many of the enumerated were actually residents, but comparing them shows where non-random overcounts occurred in geo-politically strategic locations. This article is a postmortem of an internationally monitored census that failed as enumeration but still provides useful data on ethno-religious and political divisions in Bosnian society.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation Cultural Anthropology Program, grant # 1826892, ‘(Re)Constructing Religioscapes as Competing Territorial Claims in Post-War Bosnia & Herzegovina.’ The NSF does not necessarily share in any opinion expressed in this paper. Thanks for assistance and comments, and dispensation from any blame for any position taken in the paper, go to Aleksandar Bogdanić, Mario Katić, Elissa Helms, David Henig and two anonymous reviewers for this journal.

Notes

1 IMO - Final Assessment Report (October 2016), available at https://popis.gov.ba/?lang=eng&page=download; accessed 29 June 2020. All IMO reports cited can be accessed at this site.

2 Зakon o Обради И Објављивању Резултата Пописа Становништва, Домаћинстава И Станова 2013.Године y Републици Српској [Law on the processing and results of the Census of populations, households and dwellings of 2013 in Republika Srpska], Службени Гласник Републике Српске 02/1-021-858/16, 13 јула 2016

3 http://www.bhas.ba/index.php?option=com_publikacija&view=publikacija_pregled&ids=1&id=5&n=Population,

accessed 4 July 2020.

4 https://zurnal.info/novost/20924/u-brisel-odlaze-dva-rezultata-istog and https://www.index.ba/ekskluzivno-index-objavljuje-dokument-u-brisel-idu-dva-odgovora-na-pitanje-o-popisu-stanovnistva-zvizdic-priznao-rezultate-iz-rs/, both accessed July 4 2020

5 https://www.nezavisne.com/novosti/drustvo/BiH-jedina-nece-imati-popis-2021-godine/577526, see also http://balkans.aljazeera.net/vijesti/popis-stanovnistva-u-bih-i-stranacke-svade and https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/popis-stanovnistva-bih/30766064.html.

6 https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/instruments/funding-by-country/bosnia-herzegovina_en, suggested projects reform of public administration: helping improve statistics, accessed July 5 2020.

7 See, e.g., https://www.citypopulation.de/en/bosnia/republikasrpska/prijedor/218189__kozarac/. The overcount is not due to people listing themselves as having more than one such identity.

8 The 98% figure includes votes for some parties that claim to be civic-oriented rather than ethno-national, yet attract primarily Bosniak votes; see Žila and Čermák (2020) at note 72; also see Touquet (2011) Hulsey (2010).

9 This description of the memorial and cemetery structures is derived from author’s extensive fieldwork travel throughout B&H in 2018 and 2019; see also Sokol (2014).

10 Odluka o osnivanju Agencije za Statistiku Bosne I Hercegovine, Službeni Glasnik BiH br. 6 / st. 516, Ponedeljak, 7. septembra 1998, art. III. The original wording is that BHAS ne može imati bilo kavku nadležnost nad zavodima za statitistiku entiteta and će na potpuno kooperativan način sarađivati sa zavodima za statistiku entiteta.

11 Ibid. art. IV.

12 https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-11-13/bosnia-census-results-threaten-power-sharing-system, accessed August 23, 2020.

13 Art. 37 (b), Zakon o Popisu Stanovništva, Domaćinstava i Stanova u Bosni I Hercegovini 2013. Godine [Law on the census of population, households and dwellings in B&H 2013], Službeni Glasnik BiH broj 10/12.

14 Art. 6, Zakon o Izmjenama Zakona o Popisu Stanovništva, Domaćinstava i Stanova U Bosni I Hercegovini 2013. Godine, Službeni Glasnik BiH brojј 18/13.

15 http://popis2013.net/, accessed 25 June 2017; see also https://www.islamska-zajednica.hr/kategorija/popis-stanovnistva-u-bih, accessed July 6 2020.

16 https://zastone.ba/programi/koristenje-novih-tehnologija/popis-monitor/, accessed 6 July 2020; and http://techpresident.com/news/wegov/24538/civic-monitoring-group-raises-concerns-bosnian-census, accessed 6 July 2020.

17 “Report on the Civic Monitoring of the Census in BiH 2013,” accessible from zastone.ba via search for the title; accessed 6 July. 2020.

18 The IMO in its October 2016 final report (p. 33, para. 180) referred dismissively to Popis Monitor as not having had a clear methodology and as holding a press conference “without presenting any evidence or explanation;” however, PopisMonitor’s written report, in English, was already available in March 2014.

19 Letter from Dr. Pieter Everaers, Chairman of the Monitoring Group of the IMO to H.E. Mr. Denis Zvizdić, Chairman, Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, dated 16-06-2016, ESTAT-A0/PE/A3/CJ/MA/bmD(2015) 2841026.

20 Letter from Dr. Pieter Everaers, Chairman of the Monitoring Group of the IMO to H.E. Mr. Denis Zvizdić, Chairman, Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, dated 16-06-2016, ESTAT-A0/PE/A3/CJ/MA/bmD(2015) 2841026.

21 “International Monitoring Operation: BiH to finalise and publish Census results urgently,” 25 May 2016, http://europa.ba/?p=42759.

22 http://imovinapoliticara.cin.ba/biography.php?id=65 (accessed July 9 2020). The Center’s annual report for 2016 indicates that it was supported by USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy, among other western sources; see https://www.cin.ba/dokumenti/CIN_GI-2016_bos_02.pdf (accessed 5 July 2018).

23 http://www.bh-index.com/jukic-nisam-prekrsio-zakon-a-ako-neko-sumnja-u-nezakonitosti-neka-se-otvori-istraga/.

24 https://www.slobodna-bosna.ba/vijest/29552/direktori_na_saslusanju_tuzilastvo_bih_ce_saslusati_velimira_jukica_radmilu_chichkovic_i_emira_kremica.html

25 http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/political-disputes-delay-publication-of-bosnia-s-census-results, accessed July 12, 2020.

26 Calculated from figures in Table K2_T3_B of Book 2 of the 2013 Census of Bosnia & Herzegovina, as published by BHAS 2019.

27 Calculated from figures in Table K2_T4_s of Book 2 of the 2013 Census of Bosnia & Herzegovina, as published by BHAS 2019.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Science Foundation (US): [Grant Number 1826892].