Modeling of continuous-time land cover change using satellite imagery: an application from North Carolina

Figures & data

Figure 1. The study region boundaries and physio-geographic zones of North Carolina. Source: Adapted from T.E. Stear, “Population Distribution,” pp. 30–51, in North Carolina's Changing Population (University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, 1973).

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Variable name	Units	Mean	Standard deviation
Dep. var. (1=conversion)	0,1	0.03	0.10
Forest	0,1	0.63	0.48
Wetland	0,1	0.12	0.32
Slope	degrees	0.60	1.19
Elevation	m	137.18	65.81
Distance to city	km	42.35	20.07
Distance to road	km	1.41	1.32
Distance to chipmill	km	63.74	44.56
Near public lands	0,1	0.09	0.28
Distance to hazardous waste site	km	11.37	6.95
Per capita income	$1000/person	17.10	4.54
Population density	people/km^2	75.03	63.34
Agricultural returns	$1/acre	104.04	123.38
Inner impervious surface	%	1.69	6.26
Outer impervious surface	%	2.02	6.47
Percent water	%	0.51	3.05

Table 2. Complementary log-log model of the hazard of conversion to impervious surface

	Model 1		Model 2
	Coef. est.	% Chg.	Coef. est.	% Chg.
Forest	−0.682	0.506	−0.675	0.509
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Wetland	−0.842	0.431	−0.694	0.500
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Slope	0.017	1.684	0.018	1.816
	(0.687)		(0.687)
Elevation	0.006	0.574	0.002	0.200
	(0.004)		(0.380)
Distance to city	−0.033	−3.227	−0.004	−0.399
	(0.000)		(0.494)
Distance to road	−0.941	−60.968	−0.536	−41.492
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Distance to chipmill	−0.004	−0.392	−0.002	−0.200
	(0.121)		(0.562)
Near public lands	0.593	1.810	0.185	1.203
	(0.000)		(0.102)
Distance to hazardous waste site	−0.175	−16.054	−0.084	−8.057
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Per capita income	0.160	17.351	0.117	12.412
	(0.057)		(0.169)
Population density	0.012	1.157	0.011	1.106
	(0.030)		(0.051)
Agricultural returns	−0.003	−0.267	−0.003	−0.300
	(0.003)		(0.001)
Percent water			0.038	3.873
			(0.011)
Inner impervious surface			0.157	17.000
			(0.000)
Inner impervious surface squared			−0.002	−0.200
			(0.000)
Outer impervious surface			−0.018	−1.784
			(0.010)
Intercept	−5.566		−7.502
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Chi^2 county dummies (27)	113		58
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Chi^2 time dummies (3)	149		142
	(0.000)		(0.000)
Modified Moran's I	2.08		1.05
	(0.038)		(0.294)
LR chi^2 (60, 46)	2015		2460
N_obs	65991		65991
p-values in parentheses.

Figure 2. Receiver operating curves.

Figure 3. Validation map for Model 1 (constrained model).

Figure 4. Validation map for Model 2 (unconstrained model).

Figure 5. Map for counterfactual scenario using Model 2 (unconstrained model).

Stear , T. E. Population Distribution, in: North Carolina's Changing Population. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center . 1973 .

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