Location factors and dynamics of tree plantation expansion in two coastal river basins in south-central Chile: basis for land use planning

Figures & data

Figure 1. Study area

Table 1. Description and source of chosen location factors related to tree plantation expansion

Location factors	Source	Unit	Rationale
Altitude	Digital elevation Model (SRTM). Download in dwkns.com/srtm30m/	Meters	Tree plantations will be established on land at higher altitudes.
Soil suitability for crop production	www.ide.cl	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations will not be established on the best quality soils (soil capacity I to IV).
Soil suitability for forestry	www.ide.cl	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations will be established on land suitable for forestry (soil capacity VII).
Substitution of native forest	LULC Classifications.	Dummy (0–1)	The substitution of native forest by tree plantations is expected since it has been reported in other studies (Miranda et al., 2017).
Agriculture	LULC Classification.	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations should be established preferentially on agriculture land.
Distance to previous tree plantations	Distance in a straight line to previously established tree plantations. (Classification)	Meters	Tree plantations may be established preferentially in areas close to previously established tree plantations to reduce production costs (Duffy, 2009).
Distance to the hydrographic network	Distance in a straight line to hydrographic network. Hydrographic network data downloaded from www.bcn.cl/siit/	Meters	Tree plantations may be established close to the hydrographic network, given the water requirements of tree plantations. However, under national regulations, tree plantations must not be established less than 400 meters from a watercourse (Romero et al., 2014).
Distance to the road network	Distance in a straight line calculated to the road network. Road network was downloaded from www.ide.cl	Meters	Tree plantations may be established preferentially close to the road network to reduce transportation costs (Nahuelhual et al., 2012).
Distance to urban areas	Distance in a straight line calculated to urban areas . www.ine.cl/geodatos-abiertos	Meters	Tree plantations may be established preferentially close to urban areas, which may reduce production costs (Nahuelhual et al., 2012).
Shrubland	LULC Classification	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations may replace shrublands, as has been shown in other study areas (Heilmayr et al., 2016).
Slope ≤ 15%	Slope function applied to DEM (ArcGIS). Continues slope was reclassified as 1 for slopes under 15% and 0 otherwise.	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations should be established on a slope steeper than 15% (Law 19,561, 1998).
Indigenous land	Indigenous Development Corporation. www.siic.conadi.cl	Dummy (0–1)	Tree plantations may not expand inside indigenous land due to cultural factors as well as due to limited access to financial or economic incentives, and indigenous Mapuche land has been defined as one of the last frontiers of the tree plantations companies (Clapp, 1998).
Property size	Land division Available at www.ciren.cl (Is not an open data)	Ha	Tree plantations may expand in larger properties to increase profit (Duffy, 2009). We used one date to model tree plantation expansion because information on variations in property size is costly and difficult to obtain.

Figure 2. Land use/cover change for the Budi and the Lingue basins between 1987 and 2015

Figure 3. Twenty-eight years of tree plantation expansion in the Budi and Lingue basins. (A) Budi 1987–2002, (B) Budi 2002–2015, (C) Lingue 1987–2001 and (D) Lingue 2001–2015

Table 2. Tree plantation expansion in the Budi and Lingue basins

	1987		2001/2002		2015
	Area (ha)	Basin (%)	Area (ha)	Basin (%)	Area (ha)	Basin (%)
Budi	2510	5.16	4768	9.78	9832	20.20
Lingue	7560	14.36	17,960	34.10	22,391	42.10
Note: Area of tree plantations in hectares and % related to the total area of the basin.

Table 3. Location factors in the Budi and Lingue basins obtained from the four average logistic models. Values are given for all the location factors having values higher than 0.7 in the sum of AIC weights. Average logistic regression coefficient (β) and odds ratio (OR) are shown for each location factor. OR for continuous location factors were calculated using the following thresholds: Property size every 10 ha; distance to urban every 10 km, distance to the hydrographic network every 400 m, distance to previously established tree plantations every 100 m, distance to road network every 100 m, altitude every 100 m (more details in supplementary material)

	Budi				Lingue
Location factor	First period (1987–2002)		Second period (2002–2015)			First period (1987–2001)		Second period (2001–2015)
	β	OR	β	OR		β	OR	β	OR
Agriculture	1.6174	5.0399	2.7072	14.9869		2.6198	13.7330	3.1296	22.8643
Suitability of the soil for forestry	0.7290	2.0731	0.3650	1.4405		0.4530	1.5730	0.8371	2.3097
Distance to previously established tree plantations	−0.0041	0.6606	−0.0028	0.7597		0.0039	1.4698	−0.0087	0.4167
Slope ≤ 15%	−0.6026	0.5474	−0.2690	0.7642		−0.9364	0.3920
Property size (ha)	0.0032	1.0324	0.0054	1.0554		0.0002	1.0023
Native forest			1.4145	4.1143		1.4197	4.1361	2.0483	7.7544
Altitude (m)	0.0039	1.4798	0.0046	1.5836
Indigenous land	−0.6045	0.5463
Distance to hydrographic network	−0.0003	0.8693
Distance to urban						0.0001	2.5543	0.0001	2.3421
Shrubland						1.9190	6.8144	2.1155	8.2936
Distance to road								0.0003	1.0320
Suitability of the soil for crop production						−1.4308	0.2391

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