Tourism, transport, and land use: a dynamic impact assessment for Kaohsiung’s Asia New Bay Area

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology for analysing the causal relations between public transportation development, tourism and land use by combining System Dynamics (SD) with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM). It is applied to illustrate the quantitative and spatial effect of the two phases Light Rail Transit (LRT) development in Asia New Bay Area, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. This paper also furthers the application of the ABM spatial information as interactive variables in the stocks-flow model. The simulation results support that development policies of LRT are significant to the future tourism in Asia New Bay Area, while the under debate second phase of LRT is estimated to raise the number of visitors in long term by alleviating the deteriorating road traffic congestion. This policy-oriented simulation can serve as a reference to the decision-makers towards the future management of LRT.

KEYWORDS:

• Transport & tourism
• land use transition
• system dynamics
• cellular automata
• agent-based model

Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, R.O.C (Research no. MOST 106-2410-H-006-078-MY2) named “Modeling the Impact of Mega Transport Projects on Urban Redevelopment Using System Dynamics”. The authors wish to thank the referees for their valuable advice and the colleagues in NCKU for their suggestions on this study.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan [Research no. MOST 106-2410-H-006-078-MY2].

Notes on contributors

Chun-Yin Man

Chun-Yin Man is a research assistant at The Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences, The University of Hong Kong. He received the M.Sc. degree in urban planning from the National Cheng Kung University in 2019. His research interests include geographic information science, data mining, socio-spatial dynamics and human mobility.

Oliver F. Shyr

Yi-Ya Hsu is a project coordinator at Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University, Taiwan. She received the M.Sc. degree in urban planning from the National Cheng Kung University in 2019. Her research interests include geographic information science, data visualization, urban renaissance and urban sustainable development.

Yi-Ya Hsu

Yi-Ya Hsu is a project coordinator at Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University, Taiwan. She received the M.Sc. degree in urban planning from the National Cheng Kung University in 2019. Her research interests include geographic information science, data visualization, urban renaissance and urban sustainable development.

Chien-Hung Tu

Chien-Hung Tu is a assistant professor for Department of Urban Planning and Spatial Informatoin at Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan. His current areas of research expertise include urban and regional planning, urban disaster preventoin, and environmental planning.