Climate belief, accuracy of climatic expectations, and pro-environmental action

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

	Obs.	Mean	Std. dev.	Min	Max
Belief
CC real, already affecting	1,673	0.63		0	1
CC real, will affect 10y	1,673	0.13		0	1
CC real, will affect >10y	1,673	0.09		0	1
CC real, will not affect	1,673	0.03		0	1
CC not real	1,673	0.12		0	1
CC believer	1,673	0.85	0.36	0	1
Drought expectations	1,673
Decrease a lot		0.000
Decrease a little		0.003
No change		0.33
Increase slightly		0.39
Increase a lot		0.28
Heat waves	1,275
Decrease a lot		0.000
Decrease slightly		0.004
No change		0.44
Increase slightly		0.35
Increase a lot		0.21
Age	1,673	59.76	11.86	22	96
Male	1,673	0.76	0.43	0	1
Generations of family farming	1,673	3.35	1.76	1	7
Education	1,673
Secondary or less		0.26		0	1
Professional training		0.32		0	1
University		0.41		0	1
Experimenting	1,673	4.56	2.78	0	10
Values	1,673	6.25	2.29	0	10
Trust in social media	1,673	0.04	0.19	0	1
Area	1,673	429.58	1,532.59	0.1	45,000
Pred: Temperature increase	1,673	0.94	0.11	0.608	1.37
Pred: PED increase	1,673	72.28	20.83	8.87	127.28
Exp vs projections: Temp	1,275
Under		0.57		0	1
Coinciding		0.30		0	1
Over		0.12		0	1
Exp vs projections: Drought	1,450
Under		0.47		0	1
Coinciding		0.37		0	1
Over		0.16		0	1
Actions
Greenhouse Gas Past	1,668	0.28	0.45	0	1
Greenhouse Gas Future	1,662	0.47	0.50	0	1
Biodiversity Past	1,668	0.47	0.50	0	1
Biodiversity Future	1,662	0.56	0.50	0	1
Waterways Past	1,668	0.73	0.44	0	1
Waterways Future	1,662	0.73	0.44	0	1
Soil Erosion Past	1,668	0.62	0.49	0	1
Soil Erosion Future	1,662	0.62	0.49	0	1
Biosecurity Past	1,668	0.72	0.45	0	1
Biosecurity Future	1,662	0.74	0.44	0	1

Notes: Difference is defined as expectation – prediction.

Figure 1. Histogram of IPCC predictions of temperature and drought at the post code level.

Notes: Kernel density estimates shown in red. Black, vertical line represent cut-off points for the mapping of predictions to expectations.

Figure 2. Mapping projections and expectations.

Notes: Figure shows mapping from IPCC projections (blue bar) to farmers’ expectations (grey bar). Left panel shows temperature and right panel shows drought. Observations with ‘unsure’ responses dropped.

Table 2. Regression results

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Climate change believer	Coinciding expectations: temperature	Coinciding expectations: drought	Climate change believer	Coinciding expectations: temperature	Coinciding expectations: drought
Age	0.006	0.005	−0.014*	0.005	0.007	−0.017**
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Age^2	−0.000	−0.000	0.000*	−0.000	−0.000	0.000*
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Male	−0.052**	−0.054*	−0.044	−0.068***	−0.050*	−0.049*
	(0.022)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.022)	(0.030)	(0.030)
Generations	−0.010**	−0.015**	−0.016**	−0.008*	−0.015**	−0.016**
	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Education
Professional Training	0.062***	0.104***	0.010	0.047**	0.093***	0.011
	(0.023)	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.034)	(0.033)
University	0.105***	0.103***	0.059*	0.087***	0.095***	0.035
	(0.022)	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.022)	(0.032)	(0.032)
Log(Area)				0.001	−0.002	0.012
				(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.010)
Values				0.007*	−0.006	−0.005
				(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)
Trust in Social Media				−0.104***	−0.135*	−0.042
				(0.039)	(0.071)	(0.070)
Experimenting				−0.007**	−0.003	−0.005
				(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Obs.	1,850	1,362	1,573	1,729	1,279	1,473
Pseudo R^2	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.03
Fixed Effects
Region	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Industry	NO	NO	NO	YES	YES	YES

Notes: Tables show average marginal effects from logit regressions. Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Constant not shown. Significance levels: *: p < 0.1, **: p < 0.05, ***: p < 0.01.

Figure 3. Determinants of concordance in expectations with IPCC projections of future temperature.

Notes: Results from ordered logit regression with 95% confidence bands. All regressions include industry and region fixed effects. Constant not shown.

Figure 4. Determinants of concordance in expectations with IPCC projections of future drought.

Notes: Results from ordered logit regression with 95% confidence bands. All regressions include industry and region fixed effects. Constant not shown.

Table 3. Regression results.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Reducing greenhouse gases	Increasing native biodiversity	Improving health of waterways	Reducing soil erosion	Managing biosecurity
Past 2 years	0.169***	0.113***	0.077***	0.072**	0.040
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.029)	(0.033)	(0.030)
Next 2 years	0.297***	0.178***	0.104***	0.101***	0.074***
	(0.035)	(0.032)	(0.028)	(0.032)	(0.028)

Notes: Tables show average marginal effects from logit regressions. Controls not shown (see Table A.4 in the Appendix). All regressions include industry and region fixed effects. Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Constant not shown. Significance levels: *: p < 0.1, **: p < 0.05, ***: p < 0.01.

Table 4. Regression results.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Reducing greenhouse gases	Increasing native biodiversity	Improving health of waterways	Reducing soil erosion	Managing biosecurity
Past 2 Years
Coinciding expect:	0.054	0.009	0.067**	−0.007	−0.023
temperature	(0.036)	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.024)
Coinciding expect:	0.046	0.028	0.019	0.027	0.035
drought	(0.029)	(0.032)	(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.027)
Obs.	1,234	1,234	1,234	1,234	1,234
Log Pseudolikelihood	−1,159.08	−1,216.06	−1,076.23	−1,154.80	−1,118.34
Next 2 Years
Coinciding expect:	0.025	−0.018	0.046**	−0.016	−0.022
temperature	(0.035)	(0.026)	(0.023)	(0.030)	(0.022)
Coinciding expect:	0.006	0.036	0.012	0.001	0.028
drought	(0.030)	(0.025)	(0.022)	(0.029)	(0.022)
Obs.	1,230	1,230	1,230	1,230	1,230
Log Pseudolikelihood	−1,216.36	−1,176.70	−1,061.27	−1,150.43	−1,086.94

Notes: Tables show average marginal effects from Heckman-probit regressions, which includes all controls from the model used in Table 2 and region and industry fixed effects. Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Constant not shown. Significance levels: *: p < 0.1, **: p < 0.05, ***: p < 0.01.