The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic

Figures & data

Figure 1. Distribution of age differences between men and women at marriage for Lesotho.

Figure 2. Distribution of age differences between men and women at marriage for Niger.

Figure 3. Dynamics of the mean of age differences.

Figure 4. Dynamics of the coefficient of variation of the distribution of age differences.

Table 1. Linear fixed-effects estimates (in parentheses: robust standard errors, clustered at the country level).

Dependent variable	Mean	Coefficient of variation
Marriage year	−0.0311 (0.021)	0.0021 (0.002)
1 if marriage before 1990	0.0234 (0.244)	0.0467 (0.027)
Constant	70.6746 (41.161)	−3.315 (3.198)
Country effects	Yes	Yes
Number of observations	604	600
Number of countries	17	17

Figure 5. True and approximated forces of infection with asymptotic eradication.

Figure 6. True and approximated forces of infection with an endemic equilibrium.

Figure 7. Mortality and fecundity as functions of age.

Table 2. Parameters of the simulated model.

Sex ratio at birth, σ f	0.5
Maximal age at death, ω	80
Minimal age of sexual activity, a 0	15
Lower and upper limits of ages for fertility, a 1 and a 2	15 and 50
Over-mortality rate, μ1	0.2
Infectiousness of the disease, β f and β m	0.3 and 0.1

Figure 8. Mean rate of partner change as a function of age for η=3.4.

Figure 9. Mean rate of partner change as a function of age for η=5.7.

Figure 10. Prevalence rate as a function of age for η=3.4.

Figure 11. Prevalence rate as a function of age for η=5.7.

Figure 12. R ₀ as a function of ν and σ for η=3.4.

Figure 13. R ₀ as a function of ν and σ for η=5.7.