Crowding out or crowding in? The interaction between public pensions and private transfers in China

Figures & data

Table 1. Incidence of receiving upward private transfers by public pension schemes.

Whether older people received upward private transfers		Total	Recipients of GIP	Recipients of EEBP	Recipients of NRSP/URSP	Not in any public pensions
	Yes	10188	558	914	5603	3113
		(71.71%)	(58.13%)	(54.44%)	(81.63)	(66.16%)
	No	4020	402	765	1261	1592
		(28.29%)	(41.88%)	(45.56%)	(18.37%)	(33.84%)

Pearson chi2(3) = 738.4160 Pr = 0.0000

NB: First row has frequencies and second row has column percentages in parentheses.

Data source: CHARLS 2011, 2013 and 2015

Table 2. Associations between logarithmic private transfers received by older people and public pensions.

	Public pension schemes
Private transfers (log) received by older people	Recipients of GIP	Recipients of EEBP	Recipients of NRSP/URSP	Not in any public pensions
	(n = 558)	(n = 914)	(n = 5603)	(n = 3113)
	8.213	8.156	7.755	7.621
	F-test: Ho: mean (None) = mean (GIP) = mean (EEBP) = mean (NRSP/URSP)				Pr = 0.0000
		Logarithmic pension incomes (n = 6517)
	0.122
	Pearson‘s correlation test: Ho: ρ = 0				Pr = 0.0000

NB: Only 6517 out of 8836 respondents reported non-zero pension incomes and upward private transfers.

Data source: CHARLS 2011, 2013 and 2015.

Table 3. Heckman two-step selection panel model estimating the impacts of public pensions on upward private transfers received by older people.

Upward private transfers received by older people (logarithmic)
	Model 1 Pension schemes on received transfers		Model 2 Pension incomes on received transfers
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
	Adjusted Equation	Selection Equation	Adjusted Equation	Selection Equation
Urban hukou	0.127*	−0.216***	0.367	−0.337
	(0.069)	(0.072)	(0.351)	(0.386)
Pension schemes (ref. Not in any public pension schemes)
GIP	0.169	−0.012
	(0.138)	(0.154)
EEBP	0.143	−0.311**
	(0.139)	(0.134)
NRSP/URSP	0.117***	0.157***
	(0.034)	(0.039)
Pension schemes *urban hukou (ref. Not in any public pension * Rural hukou)
GIP*urban hukou	−0.168	−0.122
	(0.162)	(0.175)
EEBP*urban hukou	−0.043	0.147
	(0.156)	(0.150)
URSP*urban hukou	−0.206**	−0.080
	(0.105)	(0.119)
Pension incomes(log)			−0.010	−0.140***
			(0.029)	(0.032)
Pension incomes(log) *urban hukou			−0.031	0.019
			(0.041)	(0.044)
Pre-transfer Incomes level (ref. incomes below p25)
Incomes between p25 and p50	−0.057	0.121***	−0.051	0.173**
	(0.037)	(0.044)	(0.065)	(0.079)
Incomes between p50 and p75	−0.149***	0.072*	−0.157**	0.157**
	(0.038)	(0.043)	(0.067)	(0.079)
Incomes above p75	0.018	−0.054	−0.005	0.047
	(0.050)	(0.053)	(0.079)	(0.087)
Age		0.007***		0.007*
		(0.003)		(0.004)
Female	0.117***	0.190***	0.134***	0.185***
	(0.033)	(0.036)	(0.039)	(0.046)
Education background (ref. Illiterate)
Less than primary school	0.056	0.071	0.056	0.053
	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.050)	(0.062)
Primary school	0.085**	0.098**	0.114**	0.121*
	(0.042)	(0.046)	(0.050)	(0.062)
Secondary school	0.279***	0.012	0.301***	0.043
	(0.053)	(0.057)	(0.063)	(0.075)
High school	0.411***	−0.098	0.472***	0.043
	(0.073)	(0.072)	(0.082)	(0.088)
Marital status of respondent (ref. Married and living with spouse)
Married but temporarily living alone	−0.069	0.073	−0.034	−0.004
	(0.074)	(0.083)	(0.095)	(0.115)
Widowed/separated/divorced	−0.171***	−0.040	−0.216***	−0.030
	(0.034)	(0.039)	(0.040)	(0.051)
Self-assessed health (ref. Very good)
Good	0.003	0.060	0.010	0.062
	(0.059)	(0.067)	(0.073)	(0.089)
Fair	−0.044	0.107*	−0.080	0.059
	(0.051)	(0.058)	(0.062)	(0.076)
Poor	−0.080	0.085	−0.130**	0.010
	(0.054)	(0.060)	(0.065)	(0.080)
Province by economic development level (ref. High level)
Middle-level	−0.209***	0.015	−0.196***	0.049
	(0.039)	(0.041)	(0.047)	(0.054)
Low-level	−0.130***	0.054	−0.084*	0.086
	(0.038)	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.054)
N. of children	0.201***	0.290***	0.190***	0.282***
	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.018)
Co-residence	−0.109***	−0.185***	−0.002	−0.186***
	(0.034)	(0.037)	(0.043)	(0.051)
Married children	0.099	0.321***	0.045	0.367***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.076)	(0.079)
Proximity to adult children (ref. Same community)
Same city	−0.135**	−0.058	0.002	−0.044
	(0.058)	(0.055)	(0.073)	(0.073)
Same province	0.094	0.446***	0.128*	0.535***
	(0.060)	(0.061)	(0.073)	(0.079)
Different province	0.579***	0.491***	0.622***	0.576***
	(0.059)	(0.063)	(0.073)	(0.084)
Incomes of children (ref. Incomes less than 10k)
10k-20k	−0.028	−0.005	−0.089	0.012
	(0.049)	(0.051)	(0.062)	(0.070)
20k-50k	0.308***	0.241***	0.278***	0.178***
	(0.041)	(0.045)	(0.050)	(0.059)
50k+	0.891***	0.207***	0.878***	0.277***
	(0.054)	(0.060)	(0.064)	(0.076)
Frequency of contact (ref. Very frequent)
Frequent	−0.299***	0.096*	−0.246***	0.013
	(0.045)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.070)
Infrequent	−0.856***	−1.753***	−0.784***	−1.878***
	(0.135)	(0.117)	(0.168)	(0.157)
Very infrequent	−0.671***	−0.370***	−0.713***	−0.521***
	(0.055)	(0.054)	(0.070)	(0.075)
2013	−0.198***	0.698***	−0.304***	0.893***
	(0.042)	(0.043)	(0.060)	(0.060)
2015	0.148***	1.118***	0.002	1.292***
	(0.045)	(0.046)	(0.063)	(0.067)
Var(e.amount)	1.163***		1.055***
	(0.029)		(0.039)
Corr(e.receive,e.amount)	−0.210***		−0.229***
	(0.056)		(0.073)
Var(amount[id])	0.589***		0.598***
	(0.033)		(0.045)
Var(receive[id])	0.396***		0.409***
	(0.049)		(0.077)
Corr(receive[id],amount[id])	0.532***		0.660***
	(0.061)		(0.090)
Constant	6.918***	−1.920***	7.245***	−0.961***
	(0.123)	(0.197)	(0.256)	(0.352)
Observations	14,207		8,836
Selected	10188		6517
Non-selected	4019		2319
Number of id	8,152		6,057

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

NB:Var(e.amount) is an estimate of the variance of the observation-level error for amount of upward private transfers. Corr(e.receive,e.amount) is an estimate of its correlation with the observation-level error for the selection model. Var(receive[id]) is an estimate of the variance of the random effects. Corr(receive[id],amount[id]) is an estimate of the correlation of the random effects.

Table 4. Incidence of providing downward private transfers by public pension schemes.

Whether older people provided downward private transfers		Total	Recipients of GIP	Recipients of EEBP	Recipients of NRSP/URSP	Not in any public pensions
	Yes	4300	432	712	2088	1068
		(30.26%)	(45.00%)	(42.41%)	(30.42%)	(22.70%)
	No	9908	528	967	4776	3637
		(69.74%)	(55.00%)	(57.59%)	(69.58%)	(77.30%)

Pearson chi2(3) = 343.7146 Pr = 0.000

First row has frequencies and second row has column percentages in parentheses

Data source: CHARLS 2011, 2013 and 2015.

Table 5. Associations between logarithmic private transfers provided by older people and public pensions.

Private transfers (log) provided by older people	Public pension schemes
	Recipients of GIP	Recipients of EEBP	Recipients of NRSP/URSP	Not in any public pensions
	(n = 432)	(n = 712)	(n = 2088)	(n = 1068)
	8.281	7.942	6.681	6.749
	F-test: Ho: mean (None) = mean (GIP) = mean (EEBP) = mean (NRSP/URSP)				Pr = 0.0000
	Logarithmic pension incomes (n = 2959)
0.412
	Pearson‘s correlation test: Ho: ρ = 0			Pr = 0.0000

NB: Only 2959 out of 8836 respondents reported non-zero pension incomes and downward private transfers.

Data source: CHARLS 2011, 2013 and 2015.

Table 6. Heckman two-step selection panel model estimating the impacts of public pensions on downward private transfers provided by older people.

Downward private transfers provided by older people (logarithmic)
	Model 3 Pension schemes on provided transfers		Model 4 Pension incomes on provided transfers
	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
	Adjusted Equation	Selection Equation	Adjusted Equation	Selection Equation
Urban hukou	0.649***	0.120*	−0.052	0.267
	(0.127)	(0.064)	(0.593)	(0.321)
Pension schemes (ref. Not in any public pension schemes)
GIP	0.337	0.072
	(0.252)	(0.131)
EEBP	0.234	0.237**
	(0.214)	(0.118)
NRSP/URSP	−0.028	0.037
	(0.072)	(0.035)
Pension schemes *urban hukou (ref. Not in any public pension * Rural hukou)
GIP*urban hukou	−0.220	0.141
	(0.284)	(0.151)
EEBP*urban hukou	−0.320	−0.081
	(0.242)	(0.132)
URSP*urban hukou	0.000	−0.056
	(0.193)	(0.100)
Pension incomes(log)			0.106**	0.060**
			(0.049)	(0.027)
Pension incomes(log) *urban hukou			0.041	−0.024
			(0.067)	(0.037)
Pre-transfer incomes level (ref. incomes below p25)
Incomes between p25 and p50	−0.122	0.010	−0.077	0.095
	(0.082)	(0.039)	(0.144)	(0.070)
Incomes between p50 and p75	−0.063	0.159***	−0.049	0.240***
	(0.084)	(0.039)	(0.148)	(0.071)
Incomes above p75	0.378***	0.239***	0.305*	0.332***
	(0.094)	(0.046)	(0.160)	(0.077)
Age		−0.016***		−0.018***
		(0.002)		(0.003)
Female	−0.027	0.044	−0.009	0.023
	(0.059)	(0.030)	(0.069)	(0.038)
Education background (ref. Illiterate)
Less than primary school	−0.006	0.069*	−0.041	0.069
	(0.079)	(0.039)	(0.097)	(0.050)
Primary school	0.162**	0.093**	0.197**	0.112**
	(0.079)	(0.039)	(0.095)	(0.049)
Secondary school	0.274***	0.111**	0.299***	0.152**
	(0.093)	(0.048)	(0.112)	(0.060)
High school	0.622***	0.209***	0.571***	0.282***
	(0.115)	(0.061)	(0.135)	(0.074)
Marital status of respondent (ref. Married and living with spouse)
Married but temporarily living alone	0.021	0.111	0.073	0.134
	(0.130)	(0.070)	(0.160)	(0.093)
Widowed/separated/divorced	−0.154**	−0.200***	−0.177**	−0.159***
	(0.073)	(0.033)	(0.083)	(0.041)
Self-assessed health (ref. Very good)
Good	−0.254**	−0.009	−0.271**	−0.013
	(0.107)	(0.057)	(0.129)	(0.072)
Fair	−0.230**	−0.022	−0.271**	−0.018
	(0.090)	(0.048)	(0.109)	(0.062)
Poor	−0.249**	−0.177***	−0.289**	−0.174***
	(0.100)	(0.051)	(0.120)	(0.065)
Province by economic development level (ref. High level)
Middle-level	−0.013	0.108***	0.012	0.107**
	(0.070)	(0.035)	(0.084)	(0.044)
Low-level	−0.116	0.128***	−0.095	0.135***
	(0.071)	(0.035)	(0.085)	(0.044)
N. of children	−0.027	0.051***	−0.043*	0.066***
	(0.019)	(0.010)	(0.023)	(0.013)
Co-residence	−0.038	−0.063*	0.078	−0.047
	(0.068)	(0.033)	(0.083)	(0.043)
Married children	−0.287***	−0.059	−0.389***	−0.059
	(0.107)	(0.053)	(0.129)	(0.068)
Proximity to adult children (ref. Same community)
Same city	−0.019	0.021	0.066	−0.013
	(0.112)	(0.051)	(0.137)	(0.066)
Same province	0.065	0.291***	0.139	0.308***
	(0.112)	(0.052)	(0.134)	(0.066)
Different province	0.171	0.170***	0.177	0.189***
	(0.111)	(0.053)	(0.134)	(0.068)
Incomes of children (ref. Incomes less than 10k)
10k-20k	−0.178*	−0.005	−0.226*	0.019
	(0.100)	(0.047)	(0.120)	(0.061)
20k-50k	0.237***	0.193***	0.128	0.173***
	(0.082)	(0.038)	(0.097)	(0.049)
50k+	0.619***	0.227***	0.511***	0.192***
	(0.097)	(0.049)	(0.112)	(0.061)
Frequency of contact (ref. Very frequent)
Frequent	−0.333***	−0.004	−0.283***	0.033
	(0.083)	(0.043)	(0.099)	(0.055)
Infrequent	−0.396	−1.049***	−0.225	−0.930***
	(0.322)	(0.116)	(0.367)	(0.148)
Very infrequent	−0.372***	−0.375***	−0.397**	−0.424***
	(0.129)	(0.052)	(0.162)	(0.068)
2013	−0.003	0.500***	−0.158	0.485***
	(0.102)	(0.039)	(0.123)	(0.051)
2015	0.390***	0.490***	0.140	0.367***
	(0.100)	(0.039)	(0.113)	(0.051)
var(e.amount)	1.994***		2.056***
	(0.129)		(0.172)
corr(e.provide,e.amount)	−0.256*		−0.311**
	(0.133)		(0.152)
var(amount [id])	0.609***		0.477***
	(0.096)		(0.120)
var(provide[id])	0.177***		0.232***
	(0.030)		(0.047)
corr(provide[id],amount[id])	0.336**		0.378*
	(0.141)		(0.198)
Constant	7.284***	−0.294*	6.900***	−0.639**
	(0.371)	(0.168)	(0.617)	(0.296)
Observations	14,207		8,836
Selected	4300		2959
Non-selected	9907		5877
Number of id	8,152		6,057

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1