How the West was Won: Regional Politics and Prophetic Promises in the 2007 Kenya Elections

Abstract

In the 2007 Kenya elections, the violent clashes and allegations of electoral fraud that engulfed the country served to overshadow, and thus mask, the underlying causes of the opposition and disillusionment that had produced such a closely contested presidential election. The success of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in challenging the incumbent government, despite the outcome, rested in its ability to mobilise support across regional and ethnic lines throughout the country. This paper demonstrates how ODM mobilised coalition strategies, regional arguments and historical justifications to court a particular regional vote, the Luyia of the Western Province. As the second largest ethnic group in Kenya, the Luyia have, in every election since independence, represented a crucial battleground in the hunt for votes, as a large yet unwieldy and unpredictable voting bloc. However, the opposition's strength, and indeed the post-election chaos, cannot be explained simply by reference to political tribalism or inter-ethnic conflict alone. Rather, this case study reveals the ways in which ODM used promises of succession, power-sharing and regional devolution of authority and resources to create a broad-based, multi-ethnic coalition.

Notes

1. Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 439.

2. Kisia and Ojwang, ‘Elijah Masinde and the Luhya Prophecy’.

3. Cheeseman, ‘Introduction: Political Linkage and Political Space in the Era of Decolonization’, 4.

4. Andreassen and Tostensen, ‘Of Oranges and Bananas’, 14.

5. Muiruri, ‘ODM ‘Pentagon’ Promises to Keep the Team Intact’.

6. Ohito, ‘Raila's “Generals” Now Take Charge’.

7. Hornsby and Throup, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 231.

8. Nation Correspondent, ‘Kenya: Last Poll, Last Push’.

9. The Luyia, at times spelt Luhya or Abaluyia, are composed of seventeen tribal groupings: the Bukusu, the Maragoli, the Wanga, the Marama, the Samia, the Bunyore, the Kabras, the Tachoni, the Kisa, the Batura, the Buhayo, the Bunyala, the Marach, the Bisukha, the Bidakho, the Batsotso, and the Teriki. For more on pre-colonial and early colonial ethnic history in Western Kenya see Ochieng’, Historical Studies and Social Change in Western Kenya; Were, A History of the Abaluyia of Western Kenya, c. 1500–1930;Wagner, ‘The Political Organization of the Bantu of Kavirondo’, 196–236; Kenya National Archives (KNA) – North Nyanza Political Record Book. Vol. I. 1900–1916.

10. Hobley, Kenya: From Chartered Company to Crown Colony, 80.

11. For descriptions of the gold rush and early political associations in Western Kenya see Lonsdale, ‘Political Associations in Western Kenya’, 589–638; Bode, ‘Anti-Colonial Politics within a Tribe’, 85–138; Roberts, ‘The Gold Boom of the 1930s in East Africa’, 545–62. For debates around land tenure and the territorial extent of ethnic identity in North Kavirondo see Kenya Land Commission Evidence, Vol. III (Nairobi, 1934).

12. PRO, CO 533/473/5 – Petition from NKCA to Secretary of State, 15 January1936; PRO, CO533/473/5 – Petition from NKCA to the Secretary of State, 18 June 1936; KNA – PC/NZA/2/655 NKCA ‘Abaluhya’ memorandum to the Imperial Parliament through the Right Honourable Secretary of State for the Colonies, 18 June 1936; Ogot, ‘Mau Mau and Nationhood: The Untold Story’, 13; ‘Avaluyha – Kinship’, NKCA pamphlet, 1935 as quoted in Lonsdale, ‘History of Nyanza’, 539 fn.59.

13. Kanyoro, Unity in Diversity; Itebete, ‘Language Standardization in Western Kenya’, 87–114.

14. Lonsdale, ‘KAU's Cultures’, 119; Spencer, Kenya African Union, 157.

15. KNA: PC/NZA/4/20/3 – Nyanza Province Minutes of Meeting of NP Security Committee 20/12/60

16. KNA: PC/NZA/1/53 – Nyanza Province Annual Report 1960. Provincial Commissioner FA Loyd.

17. Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 518.

18. See Lonsdale, ‘Moral Ethnicity and Political Tribalism’, 131–150; Berman, ‘Ethnicity, Patronage and the African State’, 305–41.

19. For debates between KANU and KADU local factions in Western Kenya regarding majimboism see KNA – GO/1/2/1–2 Kenya Regional Boundaries Commission 1962; For more on the history of majimboism see Anderson, ‘Yours in Struggle for Majimbo’, 547–64.

20. Nottingham and Sanger, ‘The Kenya General Election of 1963’, 12.

21. Bosire, Julius and Kiragu, Sollo, ‘ODM to Adopt Majimbo System if They Win Poll’, The Nation, 24 September 2007.

22. Ogot, B. A. ‘Transition from Single-Party to Multiparty Political System, 1989–93’, 258–59.

23. Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 81.

24. Interviews by the author throughout Western Province and with the Luyia Council of Elders, September–November 2007.

25. ODM Manifesto.

26. Interviews by the author with Teriki and Bukusu Elders on the Luyia Council of Elders and local CDF representatives, October 2007.

27. EAS Sunday Team, ‘Kibaki, Raila Campaigns Hit Fever Pitch’.

28. ODM Manifesto.

29. Onyango, ‘ODM Rolls out Regional Manifestos’.

30. KNA – DC North Kavirondo Annual Report, 1943.

31. KNA – DC/NN/10/1/5, Dini Ya Msambwa; see also Wipper, Rural Rebels.

32. Wipper, ‘A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Press’, 390.

33. Wipper, Rural Rebels; Hoehler-Fatton, Women of Fire and Spirit; Welbourn and Ogot, A Place to Feel at Home; Were, ‘Politics, Religion, and Nationalism in Western Kenya, 1942–1962’, 85–104.

34. Wipper, ‘Lofty Visions and Militant Action’, 277–94; De Wolf, ‘Dini ya Msambwa’, 265–76.

35. Anderson and Johnson, Revealing Prophets; Mahone, ‘The Psychology of Rebellion’, 241–58; Ranger, ‘Connexions between “Primary Resistance” Movements and Modern Mass Nationalism in East and Central Africa’, 437–53.

36. KNA – DC/NN/10/1/5, Special Intelligence Report, North Nyanza, December 1949. With all of these prophecies, it is important to bear in mind that exact quoting is made dubious by the nature of their circulation through rumour and word of mouth.

37. KNA – DC/NN/10/1/5, Provincial Police Headquarters, Nyanza, ‘Dini Msambwa’, WRB Pugh, 15/3/48.

38. KNA – DC/WP/4/4, Handing Over Report, Elgon Nyanza, Mr, 3/6/61.

39. Buke, ‘Raila to Fulfil Luhya Dream of Ascending to Presidency’.

40. Sunday Nation Team, ‘Scheming for Power’.

41. EAS Team, ‘History Repeats itself as Moi, Kibaki and Uhuru Team Up’.

42. Sunday Standard Team, ‘ODM Claims Kibaki, Uhuru Signed Pact on Succession’.

43. Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 213.

44. Ng'ang'a, ‘Wamalwa: The Race is on’.

45. Ngunyi, ‘What Kibaki should Consider in Picking New VP’.

46. KNA – EN/14 West Nyanza District: Debate in the Legislative Council, 19 July 1962.

47. Kabaji, ‘Myths and Stories that will Shape how we Vote’.

48. Heinsohn, ‘Kenya's Violence’; Kent and Yin, ‘Kenya’; Kahl, ‘Population Growth, Environmental Degradation, and State-Sponsored Violence’, 80–119.

49. Interview by the author with Kabrasi Elder Shem Musee, 23 October 2007.

50. Rice, ‘Young ‘Cheetahs’ on the Campaign Trail in Kenya’.

51. Otieno, ‘Raila is the Youth's Favourite Candidate’.

52. Wanyonyi, ‘Sect Founder's Kin Disown Ceremony’.

53. Ojwang and Obonyo, ‘Mudavadi Beat Kombo to Sect's Special Stool’.

54. Interviews by the author with the Masinde family and Dini Ya Msambwa followers, 10–12 October 2007.

55. Interviews by the author with the Luyia Council of Elders, September and October 2007.

56. Kabaji, ‘Myths and Stories that will Shape how we Vote’.

57. Lonsdale, ‘Moral and Political Argument in Kenya’, 81.