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Abstract
After many years in which the potential for the development of the petroleum industry in eastern Africa has been largely ignored, the last five years has seen a resurgence of interest in oil exploration across the region. Long characterised as a “risky” frontier because of the difficult nature of the region's geology and the volatile character of its politics, the sharp rise in international oil prices, coupled with the difficulties in accessing other supply areas, has altered the prospects for successful commercial development of smaller fields known to exist in the region. The successful discovery of large oil deposits in the Lake Albert region of Uganda has encouraged the industry to view the region more positively, bringing an influx of new and established companies to tender for exploration rights in a wide range of fields covering Puntland, Somaliland, Ethiopia, Southern Sudan, Uganda, the DRC, Kenya, and Tanzania. This paper charts the extent of this oil exploration and industry investment in the region over the past decade, and discusses the economic and political implications of significant oil finds for future development. Additional exploitable oil fields may yet be discovered, but if only the Uganda fields are developed this is likely to have a considerable impact of the regional economy and upon relations between neighbouring states.
Acknowledgements
Research undertaken for this paper was supported by the British Institute in Eastern Africa, Nairobi, from October 2009 until September 2010. We thank Benson Kimeu, of BIEA, for his assistance in producing the maps. Earlier versions of the paper were presented at a meeting of the IAASM in Genoa, at the African Studies Seminar, University of Oxford, and to a student audience at CRASSH in the University of Cambridge. We are grateful to participants in those meetings for their comments.
Notes
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3. For the entrenched rent-seeking practices associated with the oil extraction in Africa, see Aissaoui, Algeria; Yates, The Rentier State in Africa; Gurney, Libya: Political Economy of Oil; Soares de Oliveira, Oil States in the Gulf of Guinea.
4. Frynas and Paulo, “A New Scramble for African Oil?”, 251.
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29. US Government Energy Information Administration, “EIA Country Analysis Brief”.
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35. Royal Norwegian Embassy in Khartoum, “Oil Recovery from Oil Fields in Sudan”.
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129. Anon., “ENI Announces Purchase”; Simon, “Tullow Says it Will Buy Heritage's Uganda Assets”.
130. Independent Team, “Pay the Tax Money or Get Out”.
131. “ENI announces purchase”.
132. Simon, “Tullow Says it Will Buy Heritage's Uganda Assets”.
133. Wakabi , “Tullow Loses Money”; Kalinaki, “How Power Play Led Tullow Down Empty Oil Well”.
134. Biryabarema, “Uganda Needs $8 Billion to Develop Oil Industry”; Thompson, “Tullow to Start $10 Billion Uganda Development”.
135. Wakabi, “Tullow Silent Over URA's $283 Million Agency Notice”.
136. Anon., “Kampala To Reclaim Block 3A”; Anon., “Zuma's Company Reportedly in the Running for Block 3A”.
137. Brock, “Tullow Oil to Exit Uganda Tax Dispute”.
138. Herron, “Tax Dispute Halts Tullow Drilling”.
139. Anon., “Tullow says Uganda Deal Still Awaiting Approval”.
140. Anon., “I Have Never Been Bribed by Heritage or ENI – Mbabazi”.
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144. Fletcher, “Tullow Falls as Congo Removes Oil Rights”.
145. Anon., “Uganda/Congo: The Next Oil Scramble”.
146. Watkins, “Congo President Cancels Block Agreements”.
147. Bradley, “Interview: Aidan Heavey”.
148. Manson, “Congo's New Oil Deals”. Lay and Minio-Paluello, A Lake of Oil, for the figures.
149. Revenue Watch Institute report.
150. Mwakisyala, “Oil Threatens Union with Zanzibar”.
151. International Crisis Group, Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future.
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155. Nyakairu and Baryasiima, “Congolese Troops Killed Oil Worker”.
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158. Anon., “African Trio in Pipe Act”.
159. Mwaura, “Resolve Queries over Ilemi Triangle”.
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161. Anon., “Kenya Targets Fairer Terms with New Legislation”.
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164. Ewing, “An Ugly Exploration”, 81–91.
165. Human Rights Watch, Targeting the Anuak; Anon., “Ethiopian Army Chief Assures Foreign Oil Firms”.
166. Tadesse and Heavens, “Rebels Kill 74”.
167. Malone, “British Geologist Shot Dead”.
168. Ford, “Calming a Sea of Many Troubles”.
169. Freed, “Range Res Sends Teams into the Land of Punt”.
170. Africa Oil Corp, “Annual Information Form”.
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172. Anon., “Short End of Stick”.
173. Anon., “Hundreds Flee Tribal Violence”.
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175. International Alert, “Harnessing Oil”, 41–2.
176. Edwards, “Oil Discovery Sparks Land Grab in Buliisa”.
177. Frynas and Paulo, “A New Scramble for African oil?”, 251.