Stability and change in US city policymaking: evidence and a path forward

Abstract

A central issue in urban political analysis is the way in which city-governing institutions prioritize and react to changing demands for policies and services. In this article, we examine these dynamics in American city governments through the lens of two policy process frameworks: incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium. Using panel data from all 278 Michigan cities from 2005 to 2011, the empirical analysis mostly finds evidence of punctuated processes, though the degree of punctuatedness varies systematically across city governments and by issues domain. Considerable stability is a central feature of US city policymaking; but so too are rapid and extreme changes in policy priorities – particularly in domains outside the ‘basic maintenance’ functions of American city governments, such as community development, social welfare, and recreation and culture. Ultimately, this research challenges incremental models of city policymaking, while adding breadth to the growing literature on punctuated equilibrium in national and subnational governments.

Keywords:

• urban public policy
• agenda setting
• policy change
• punctuated equilibrium
• incrementalism

Notes

1. For American cities, this incentivizes the building in of surpluses that provide lawmakers more ‘wiggle room’ to act on a set of policy preferences, particularly during times of economic prosperity. But in meager economic times, the major challenge facing mayors, managers, and council members across the US’ federal system is how to simply maintain the status quo.

2. The rational budgetary process under balanced budget requirements necessitates city policymakers’ consideration of all budgetary items, plus all budgetary items relative to all others.

3. To illustrate this immutability, Jones provides an example that is both timely and appropriate (in light of the City of Detroit’s recent decision to catalyze the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history): the stability of policy tendencies during New York city’s fiscal crisis of the mid-to-late 1970s. Comparison of the allocation of resources to core city functions during the Ed Koch Administration (which, in the 1980s, took office under the auspices of ‘turning things around’ through fiscal responsibility) to that of the Abraham Beane Administration (which carried much of the blame for the city’s fiscal woes) yields near-identical spending priorities. For instance, in 1978, the last year of the Beane Administration, the city spent 6.1% of its operating budget on transit and 8.8% on sanitation. In 1982, the city spent 6.1% of its operating budget on transit (representing a 0% growth rate) and 9.5% on sanitation (representing a 9% growth rate). This, it would seem, is incrementalism ad absurdum. Even on the brink of insolvency, last year’s solutions – however culpable in generating this insolvency – were not cast aside in favor of doing things differently, but rather were modified purely on the margins.

4. An oft-referenced example of non-incremental processes at the national level comes from the classic work of Davis, Dempster, and Wildavsky, who concede that although the budgetary process is ‘basically incremental, [it] does respond to the needs of the economy and society, but only after sufficient pressure has been built up to cause abrupt changes precipitated by these events.’ To these authors, exogenous, macro-level forces drove sudden reprioritizations.

5. For instance, Sapotichne and Jones (2012) write of the rapid ‘greening’ of city development agendas as federal resources were linked to a newly legitimized argument: the notion that clean energy investment can serve as a catalyst for employment and growth. Some of these changes, which are beginning to show up in city budgets, are symbolic; yet, a range of city lawmakers have used these and other resources to initiate efforts to prioritize fresh solutions – such as the production of more clean energy, and the reduction in cost of clean energy deployment through private investment – to old problems. Shipan and Volden’s (2008) important work on policy diffusion mechanisms in American city governments is clearly illustrative of similar, ‘positive feedback’ processes.

6. Thus, if City A spent 10% of its operating budget on public safety in 2005, and 15% in 2006, the change magnitude for 2006 would be a 50% increase, since ((0.15 – 0.10)/0.10) × 100 = 50. If the divisor is zero, the case is omitted.

7. Padgett’s (1980) important article offers an exceptionally thorough treatment of the stochastic implications of the process incrementalism model.

8. Mean and variance of the 100-city sample are nearly identical to that of the full population of Michigan cities. A table of all 278 city-level L-K scores can be provided upon request.

9. Population (r = 0.034, p = 0.592). Density (r = 0.093, p = 0.369). City Type (t = 0.694, p = 0.499). Form of Government (t = 0.501, p = 0.612).