The effects of the local and regional conditions and inequalities on urban shrinkage: a multilevel analysis focusing on local population decline

Figures & data

Figure 1. Population changes in the study area.

Table 1. Input variables.

		Variable	Formula	Data source	Mean	Std. Dev.	Max.	Min.
Dependent variable		Standardized population change rate	(Local population of the current year-local population of the previous year) /Local population of the previous year	Statistics Korea	−0.243	2.605	36.000	−9.970
Economic conditions	Private sector	Paid worker ratio	Number of paid workers/Local population	Statistics Korea	31.825	21.329	260.076	11.178
		Service worker ratio	Number of service workers/Local population	Ministry of Employment and Labor	22.511	19.317	241.856	8.166
	Public sector	Welfare budget ratio	Welfare budget/Total local budget	Statistics Korea	32.618	15.020	67.400	8.000
		Fiscal capacity ratio	Revenue capacity/ Expenditure needs	Statistics Korea	26.709	14.113	81.500	7.300
Social conditions		Elderly population ratio	Population aged 65 or older/ Local population	Statistics Korea	18.654	7.945	39.900	5.600
		The average persons per household	Local population/number of households	Statistics Korea	2.365	0.365	5.404	0.646
Physical conditions		Population density	Local population/Local area	Statistics Korea	4.060	6.402	28.769	0.019
		Road density	Road area/Local area	Statistics Korea	5.002	8.590	74.353	0.017
Policy conditions		Development budget ratio	Development budget/Total local budget	Ministry of Interior and Safety Local Finance	7.180	26.132	862.011	0.000
		New building-permit area ratio	Building-permit area/Local area	Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport	13.527	6.460	53.020	1.590

Table 2. Result of effects by levels.

			Model I				Model II				Model III
level		Variables	level 1 condition				level 1 and level 2 conditions				level 1 and level 2 conditions with level 2 regional inequalities
			Coeff.		Std. error	t value	Coeff.		Std. error	t value	Coeff.		Std. error	t value
Local level	Conditions	Paid worker ratio	0.0257***		0.0070	3.6580	0.0257***		0.0073	3.5360	0.0266***		0.0073	3.6490
		Service worker ratio	−0.0548***		0.0075	−7.3310	−0.0542***		0.0077	−7.0100	−0.0546***		0.0077	−7.0570
		Fiscal capacity ratio	0.0640***		0.0072	8.8590	0.0620***		0.0075	8.2970	0.0602***		0.0075	8.0370
		Welfare budget ratio	−0.0593***		0.0090	−6.5780	−0.0628***		0.0093	−6.7860	−0.0605***		0.0093	−6.5000
		Elderly population ratio	−0.0409**		0.0137	−2.9970	−0.0435**		0.0141	−3.0770	−0.0441**		0.0141	−3.1180
		The average persons per household	0.2352		0.1645	1.4300	0.2693		0.1696	1.5880	0.2387		0.1705	1.4010
		Population density	−0.0848***		0.0179	−4.7240	−0.0783***		0.0185	−4.2430	−0.0820***		0.0186	−4.4120
		Road density	0.0295***		0.0072	4.0880	0.0287***		0.0074	3.8800	0.0295***		0.0075	3.9530
		New building-permit area ratio	0.0041*		0.0018	2.3430	0.0043*		0.0018	2.3370	0.0042*		0.0018	2.3190
		Development budget ratio	0.0231*		0.0101	2.2820	0.0238*		0.0104	2.2810	0.0241*		0.0105	2.3080
Regional level	Conditions	Paid worker ratio	-		-	-	0.1201*		0.0553	2.1730	0.0807		0.0847	0.9530
		Service worker ratio	-		-	-	0.1101		0.0572	1.9240	0.0114		0.1065	0.1070
		Fiscal capacity ratio	-		-	-	0.0018		0.0256	0.0720	0.0192		0.0286	0.6710
		Welfare budget ratio	-		-	-	−0.1840***		0.0333	−5.5240	−0.1690**		0.0515	−3.2830
		Elderly population ratio	-		-	-	−0.0776		0.1167	−0.6650	0.1970		0.1984	0.9930
		The average persons per household	-		-	-	−1.5830		3.6120	−0.4380	2.3710		5.2530	0.4510
		Population density	-		-	-	−1.6220***		0.1527	−10.6230	−1.2970***		0.2409	−5.3860
		Road density	-		-	-	2.3660***		0.1777	13.3190	2.1910***		0.2153	10.1730
		New building-permit area ratio	-		-	-	0.0152		0.0083	1.8320	0.0200		0.0108	1.8570
		Development budget ratio	-		-	-	0.2831***		0.0507	5.5840	0.2879***		0.0581	4.9530
	Inequalities	Paid worker ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	−14.0400		9.4660	−1.4840
		Service worker ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	8.2240		7.0300	1.1700
		Fiscal capacity ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	−10.1500		7.9930	−1.2700
		Welfare budget ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	9.7850		11.3100	0.8650
		Elderly population ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	−7.2080		10.1800	−0.7080
		The average persons per household	-		-	-	-		-	-	7.1710		5.6520	1.2690
		Population density	-		-	-	-		-	-	−0.8921		0.7917	−1.1270
		Road density	-		-	-	-		-	-	−0.8024		0.5418	−1.4810
		New building-permit area ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	−0.3932		0.4631	−0.8490
		Development budget ratio	-		-	-	-		-	-	−10.1600*		4.5210	−2.2460
			−2LL = 7,902.1 AIC = 8,005.9 BIC = 8,082.9				−2LL = 7,685.3 AIC = 7,856.4 BIC = 7,988.5				−2LL = 7,654.8 AIC = 7,814.5 BIC = 8,001.7

* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

Table 3. Result of interactions between levels.

			Model Ⅵ-1				Model Ⅵ-2				Model Ⅵ-3
			Population density interaction				Development budget ratio interaction				Population density interaction and development budget ratio interaction
level		Variables	Coeff.		Std. error	t value	Coeff.		Std. error	t value	Coeff.		Std. error	t value
Local level	Conditions	Paid worker ratio	0.0250***		0.0073	3.4050	0.0227**		0.0071	3.2120	0.0221**		0.0072	3.0830
		Service worker ratio	−0.0483***		0.0079	−6.1060	−0.0498***		0.0075	−6.5980	−0.0454***		0.0077	−5.9090
		Fiscal capacity ratio	0.0647***		0.0075	8.6210	0.0600***		0.0073	8.2220	0.0649***		0.0074	8.7990
		Welfare budget ratio	−0.0524***		0.0096	−5.4820	−0.0556***		0.0094	−5.8870	−0.0497***		0.0096	−5.1780
		Elderly population ratio	−0.0364**		0.0140	−2.6070	−0.0427**		0.0137	−3.1220	−0.0359**		0.0137	−2.6170
		The average persons per household	0.2389		0.1660	1.4400	0.2680		0.1625	1.6490	0.2506		0.1622	1.5450
		Population density	−0.1401***		0.0314	−4.4590	−0.0728***		0.0180	−4.0500	−0.1200***		0.0244	−4.9250
		Road density	0.0310***		0.0075	4.1480	0.0271***		0.0071	3.8410	0.0312***		0.0072	4.3340
		New building-permit area ratio	0.0048**		0.0018	2.7150	0.0043*		0.0018	2.4600	0.0047**		0.0017	2.7150
		Development budget ratio	0.0194		0.0103	1.8940	0.0359*		0.0170	2.1170	0.0323*		0.0153	2.1060
Regional level	Conditions	Paid worker ratio	0.0823		0.0616	1.3380	0.1554*		0.0645	2.4090	0.1451*		0.0643	2.2560
		Service worker ratio	0.1970**		0.0597	3.3010	0.0388		0.0648	0.5990	0.0801		0.0645	1.2420
		Fiscal capacity ratio	0.0384		0.0254	1.5100	−0.0081		0.0276	−0.2950	0.0192		0.0267	0.7180
		Welfare budget ratio	−0.1938***		0.0352	−5.5120	−0.1670***		0.0380	−4.3880	−0.1587***		0.0373	−4.2560
		Elderly population ratio	0.0383		0.1293	0.2960	−0.1070		0.1292	−0.8280	−0.0254		0.1294	−0.1960
		The average persons per household	−0.2552		4.0060	−0.0640	−1.7260		4.1230	−0.4190	−2.0200		4.1270	−0.4900
		Population density	−1.7720***		0.1545	−11.4680	−1.4530***		0.1687	−8.6110	−1.5740***		0.1646	−9.5650
		Road density	2.3790***		0.1861	12.7860	2.2240***		0.2058	10.8050	2.2570***		0.2014	11.2060
		New building-permit area ratio	0.0217**		0.0064	3.3950	0.0205**		0.0073	2.8090	0.0212**		0.0065	3.2590
		Development budget ratio	0.2153***		0.0487	4.4230	0.3620***		0.0673	5.3760	0.3248***		0.0643	5.0520
Interaction term		Local population density * regional population density	0.0115*		0.0044	2.6320	-		-	-	0.0078*		0.0030	2.6120
		Local development budget ratio * regional development budget ratio	-		-	-	0.0124*		0.0051	2.4190	0.0101*		0.0049	2.0490
			−2LL = 7,657.3 AIC = 7,842.1 BIC = 7,990.7				−2LL = 7,656.6 AIC = 7,839.9 BIC = 7,988.5				−2LL = 7,636.9 AIC = 7,834.3 BIC = 8,008.9

* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.