Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Figures & data

Figure 1. Topography and main rivers of the QTP.

Table 1. Temperature data (°C) for the QTP for four different IPCC5 RCPs.

		Temperature
RCPs	Period	Maximum	Minimum	Mean	Standard deviation
	current	24.24	−22.68	−1.39	5.09
RCP2.6	2030	25.50	−21.20	0.10	5.06
	2050	25.70	−20.90	0.21	5.08
	2070	25.60	−21.00	0.20	5.05
RCP4.5	2030	25.60	−21.00	0.20	5.07
	2050	26.00	−20.40	0.75	5.04
	2070	26.30	−20.10	1.07	5.02
RCP6.0	2030	25.40	−21.00	−0.04	5.03
	2050	26.00	−20.40	0.72	5.02
	2070	26.60	−19.70	1.41	5.01
RCP8.5	2030	26.60	−19.60	1.40	4.99
	2050	26.70	−19.60	1.51	5.03
	2070	27.7	−18.3	2.70	5.01

Table 2. Total areas of permafrost on the QTP for each period for the four RCPs (×10⁶ km²).

RCPs	current	2030	2050	2070
RCP2.6	1.48	1.12	1.09	1.10
RCP4.5		1.10	0.96	0.88
RCP6.0		1.15	0.96	0.80
RCP8.5		0.81	0.78	0.55

Table 3. The rate of permafrost degradation on the QTP during each period for the four RCPs (%). ‘+’ indicates permafrost degradation; ‘–’ indicates permafrost increase.

RCPs	From current to 2030	From 2030 to 2050	From 2050 to 2070	From current to 2070
RCP2.6	+24.32	+2.68	−0.92	+25.68
RCP4.5	+25.68	+12.73	+8.33	+40.54
RCP6.0	+22.30	+16.52	+16.67	+45.95
RCP8.5	+45.27	+3.70	+29.49	+62.84

Figure 2. Simulated ‘current’ permafrost distribution on the QTP.

Table 4. The areas (×10³ km²) of future permafrost changes for the four RCPs on the QTP.

RCPs	Period	Increased permafrost	Decreased permafrost	Unchanged permafrost	Unchanged nonpermafrost
RCP2.6	current–2030	0.1	363.1	1120.6	1169.9
	2030–2050	0.2	26.7	1094	1532.5
	2050–2070	3.2	6.8	1091	1552.7
	current–2070	0.1	386.2	1097.5	1169.9
RCP4.5	current–2030	0.1	386.6	1097.1	1169.9
	2030–2050	0	163.1	934.4	1556.2
	2050–2070	0	89.8	867.3	1696.6
	current–2070	0	603.9	879.8	1170.0
RCP6.0	current–2030	0.1	330.9	1152.8	1169.9
	2030–2050	0	190.5	962.8	1500.4
	2050–2070	0	161.7	801.6	1690.4
	current–2070	0	682	801.7	1170.0
RCP8.5	current–2030	0	669.8	813.9	1170.0
	2030–2050	21.5	54.5	759.8	1817.9
	2050–2070	0	227.5	554.1	1872.1
	current–2070	0	929.5	554.2	1170.0

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of future permafrost changes (from now to 2030, from 2030 to 2050, from 2050 to 2070, from 2030 to 2050, and from now to 2070) on the QTP for four RCPs. ‘Increased permafrost’ indicates seasonally frozen ground or persistently nonpermafrost conditions that have changed to permafrost. ‘Decreased permafrost’ represents permafrost that has degraded to nonpermafrost. ‘Unchanged permafrost’ and ‘Unchanged nonpermafrost’ means persistent permafrost and nonpermafrost conditions, respectively.

Table 5. Total area of QTP underlain by permafrost according to published sources and different permafrost modeling approaches. Reference data used are the results of the simulation by the ARM (1.48 × 10⁶ km²), which represents the permafrost distribution under the current (1950–2000) climate conditions. ‘+’ indicates an increase; ‘–’ indicates a decrease.

Data source	Permafrost area(×10^6 km^2)	Deviation from reference data (%)	Note
Zhou and Guo (1982)	1.50	+1.35	Permafrost Map of China (compiled in 1975)
Xu and Wang (1983)	1.49	+0.68	1:4 M Map of Permafrost in China (compiled in 1978)
Shi and Mi (1988)	1.50	+1.35	1:4 M Map of the snow, Ice and Frozen Ground in China (1988)
Wang (1997)	1.23	−16.89	1:3 M Map of Permafrost Distribution on the QTP (Li and Cheng, 1996)
Nan (2003)	1.12	−24.32	MAGT model
Nan (2003)	1.28	−13.51	Surface frost number
Nan (2003)	1.39	−6.08	TTOP model

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