Impacts of the recent USA and China trade dispute on China’s aquatic products

Figures & data

Table 1. Forecast of China’s aquatic products import level and point by point residual test since China’s entry into WTO

Year	Import value (US $)			Import volume (kg)			China’s per capita GDP (US $)
	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)
2002	1,574,359,435	1,574,359,435	0.00	1,451,991,806	1,451,991,806	0.00	1149	1149	0.04
2003	1,883,975,766	2,017,891,422	7.11	1,440,908,020	1,594,269,993	10.64	1289	1021	−20.74
2004	2,362,929,621	2,353,476,472	−0.40	1,746,387,381	1,766,731,218	1.16	1509	1397	−7.39
2005	2,903,683,647	2,713,141,901	−6.56	1,948,861,208	1,935,966,168	−0.66	1753	1829	4.31
2006	3,191,339,088	3,094,240,601	−3.04	2,185,303,174	2,097,744,149	−4.01	2099	2318	10.42
2007	3,501,565,132	3,493,398,069	−0.23	2,343,710,766	2,247,522,920	−4.10	2694	2863	6.27
2008	3,721,389,868	3,906,557,390	4.98	2,358,938,402	2,380,618,397	0.92	3468	3460	−0.23
2009	3,653,393,729	4,329,055,166	18.49	2,231,543,439	2,492,418,024	11.69	3832	4104	7.10
2010	4,458,514,434	4,755,728,396	6.67	2,504,678,076	2,578,637,816	2.95	4550	4786	5.17
2011	5,759,727,173	5,181,052,315	−10.05	2,726,138,774	2,635,623,059	−3.32	5618	5491	−2.26
2012	5,662,553,981	5,599,309,169	−1.12	2,542,818,900	2,660,692,685	4.64	6317	6203	−1.81
2013	6,182,283,678	6,004,787,957	−2.87	2,768,007,821	2,652,527,307	−4.17	7051	6898	−2.16
2014	6,826,715,327	6,392,015,108	−6.37	2,873,614,665	2,611,600,927	−9.12	7651	7548	−1.35
2015	6,556,152,118	6,756,016,118	3.05	2,711,987,362	2,540,656,305	−6.32	8033	8116	1.03
2016	7,088,059,964	7,092,608,139	0.06	2,646,744,008	2,445,223,994	−7.61	8079	8560	5.96
2017	8,176,080,160	7,398,723,508	−9.51	2,910,720,651	2,334,185,051	−19.81	8759	8827	0.78
er (the average relative residual)			5.03			5.70			4.81
P (the model prediction accuracy)			94.97			94.30			95.19
2018	11,744,150,042	7,672,764,241	−34.67	3,358,033,718	2,220,377,397	−33.88	9771	8857	−9.36
2019	15,581,483,213	8,058,877,060	−48.28	4,399,836,182	2,154,021,273	−51.04	10,262	8757	−14.67

Table 2. Changes of China’s aquatic products import volume and value from 2017 to 2019^a

Year	Import volume (kg)	Import value (US $)	Average import price (US $/kg)
The total import of China’s aquatic product
2017	2,910,720,651	8,176,080,160	2.81
2018	3,358,033,718 (15.37%)	11,744,150,042 (43.64%)	3.50 (24.51%)
2019	4,399,836,182 (31.02%)	15,581,483,213 (32.67%)	3.54 (1.26%)
Therein, China’s total aquatic product import from the USA
2017	428,597,166	1,318,016,450	3.08
2018	365,558,178 (−14.71%)	1,254,741,112 (- 4.80%)	3.43 (11.62%)
2019	321,817,749 (−11.97%)	914,933,155 (−27.08%)	2.84 (−17.17%)
Therein, China’s total aquatic product import from the rest of the world
2017	2,482,123,485	6,858,063,710	2.76
2018	2,992,475,540 (20.56%)	10,489,408,930 (52.95%)	3.51 (26.87%)
2019	4,078,018,433 (36.28%)	14,666,550,058 (39.82%)	3.60 (2.60%)

^aIn Table 2, the number in parentheses is the year-on-year growth rate.

Table 3. Forecast of China’s aquatic products export level and point by point residual test 2002–2019

Year	Export value (ten thousand RMB yuan)			Export volume (kg)			Per capita GDP of other countries except China (US $)
	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)
2002	3,726,054	3,726,054	0.00	1,981,924,122	1,981,924,122	0.00	6649	6649	0.00
2003	4,352,592	4,866,706	11.81	2,019,355,465	2,153,195,731	6.63	7353	7520	2.27
2004	5,503,360	5,220,040	−5.15	2,321,613,843	2,298,704,988	−0.99	8149	8156	0.09
2005	6,167,532	5,698,117	−7.61	2,470,689,591	2,460,571,272	−0.41	8672	8786	1.31
2006	7,144,376	6,294,332	−11.90	2,890,987,108	2,635,036,703	−8.85	9217	9384	1.81
2007	7,030,921	6,993,299	−0.54	2,930,557,648	2,817,392,628	−3.86	10,158	9927	−2.27
2008	7,016,366	7,770,927	10.75	2,828,373,493	3,002,270,116	6.15	10,863	10,395	−4.31
2009	6,990,575	8,594,916	22.95	2,826,554,311	3,184,023,768	12.65	10,026	10,775	7.47
2010	8,942,886	9,425,689	5.40	3,227,928,576	3,357,208,827	4.01	10,734	11,063	3.07
2011	10,966,645	10,217,740	−6.83	3,772,420,329	3,517,151,601	−6.77	11,627	11,270	−3.06
2012	11,440,498	10,921,416	−4.54	3,684,606,620	3,660,613,195	−0.65	11,595	11,423	−1.49
2013	12,040,897	11,485,115	−4.62	3,838,814,990	3,786,546,545	−1.36	11,631	11,567	−0.55
2014	12,819,972	11,857,922	−7.50	4,026,352,449	3,896,946,768	−3.21	11,688	11,777	0.76
2015	12,186,915	11,992,659	−1.59	3,905,415,560	3,997,794,815	2.37	10,719	12,155	13.39
2016	13,288,147	11,849,371	−10.83	4,086,251,630	4,100,094,430	0.34	10,743	12,838	19.51
2017	12,488,060	11,399,232	−8.72	3,970,550,282	4,221,002,424	6.31	11,225	14,005	24.77
er (the average relative residual)			7.55			4.03			5.38
P (the model prediction accuracy)			92.45			95.97			94.62
2018	12,782,580	10,628,874	−16.85	3936,752239	4,385,052,254	11.39	11,642	15,880	36.41
2019	12332,576	65,194,233	428.63	3875,043015	10,548,138,567	172.21	11,705	8947	−23.56

Table 4. Changes of China’s aquatic products export volume and value from 2017 to 2019^a

Year	Export volume (Kg)	Export value (US $)	Average export price (US $/ kg)
The total export of China’s aquatic products
2017	3,970,550,282	18,476,864,716	4.65
2018	3,936,752,239 (−0.85%)	19,320,833,103 (4.57%)	4.91 (5.47%)
2019	3,875,043,015 (−1.57%)	17,851,604,271 (−7.60%)	4.61 (−6.13%)
Therein, China’s total aquatic products export to the USA
2017	513,639,033	2,866,724,699	5.58
2018	514,726,527 (0.21%)	3,033,262,688 (5.81%)	5.89 (5.59%)
2019	419,036,012 (−18.59%)	2,214,073,160 (−27.01%)	5.28 (−10.34%)
Therein, China’s total aquatic products export to the rest of the world
2017	3,456,911,249	15,610,140,017	4.52
2018	3,422,025,712 (−1.01%)	16,287,570,415 (4.34%)	4.76 (5.40%)
2019	3,456,007,003 (0.99%)	15,637,531,111 (−3.99%)	4.52 (- 4.94%)

^aIn Table 4, the number in parentheses is the year-on-year growth rate.

Table 5. Forecast of China’s aquatic products import level from the USA and point by point residual test 2002–2019

Year	Import value (ten thousand US $)			Import volume (ton)			China’s per capita disposable income (RMB yuan)
	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)
2002	10,585	10,585	0.00	112,496	112,496	0.00	4532	4532	0.00
2003	13,346	15,684	17.52	111,273	131,715	18.37	5007	4929	−1.54
2004	24,523	23,139	−5.64	162,043	160,482	−0.96	5661	5653	−0.14
2005	34,276	31,210	−8.94	209,491	191,637	−8.52	6385	6496	1.75
2006	40,914	39,902	−2.47	246,149	225,031	−8.58	7229	7469	3.32
2007	46,262	49,189	6.33	256,168	260,366	1.64	8584	8581	−0.03
2008	53,031	59,014	11.28	254,842	297,150	16.60	9957	9839	−1.18
2009	54,932	69,272	26.10	292,418	334,651	14.44	10,978	11,249	2.48
2010	72,118	79,803	10.66	356,505	371,843	4.30	12,520	12,814	2.35
2011	112,893	90,381	−19.94	476,171	407,345	−14.45	14,551	14,531	−0.13
2012	111,508	100,697	−9.69	431,877	439,358	1.73	16,510	16,395	−0.70
2013	106,214	110,351	3.89	458,304	465,595	1.59	18,311	18,392	0.44
2014	118,068	118,828	0.64	491,121	483,202	−1.61	20,167	20,502	1.66
2015	108,631	125,489	15.52	438,548	488,674	11.43	21,966	22,697	3.33
2016	103,328	129,550	25.38	376,524	477,774	26.89	23,821	24,937	4.69
2017	131,802	130,063	−1.32	428,597	445,430	3.93	25,974	27,173	4.62
er (the average relative residual)			10.33			8.44			1.77
P (the model prediction accuracy)			89.67			91.56			98.23
2018	125,474	125,893	0.33	365,558	385,641	5.49	28,228	29,340	3.94
2019	91,493	123,224	34.68	321,818	330,780	2.78	30,733	31,841	3.61

Table 6. Forecast of China’s aquatic products export level to the USA and point by point residual test 2002–2019

Year	Export value (ten thousand RMB yuan)			Export volume (ton)			USA’s per capita disposable income (US $)
	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)	Actual value	Predicted value	er (%)
2002	668,408	668,408	0.00	258,771	258,771	0.00	28,153	28,153	0.00
2003	830,649	823,338	−0.88	321,178	321,523	0.11	29,192	29,336	0.49
2004	796,548	924,038	16.01	333,510	364,071	9.16	30,643	30,720	0.25
2005	1,047,413	1,043,119	−0.41	404,162	406,272	0.52	31,710	32,015	0.96
2006	1,401,155	1,174,700	−16.16	501,044	445,967	−10.99	33,549	33,210	−1.01
2007	1,338,326	1,312,220	−1.95	501,330	481,294	−4.00	34,855	34,306	−1.57
2008	1,410,699	1,449,117	2.72	492,069	510,913	3.83	35,906	35,316	−1.64
2009	1,388,926	1,579,649	13.73	501,582	534,218	6.51	35,500	36,266	2.16
2010	1,729,530	1,699,848	−1.72	558,932	551,586	−1.31	36,524	37,192	1.83
2011	1,839,050	1,808,618	−1.65	541,669	564,615	4.24	38,052	38,141	0.24
2012	1,810,186	1,908,965	5.46	533,460	576,395	8.05	39,780	39,169	−1.54
2013	1,920,208	2,009,376	4.64	565,017	591,773	4.74	39,521	40,335	2.06
2014	2,031,715	2,125,323	4.61	576,621	617,647	7.11	41,440	41,703	0.64
2015	1,941,658	2,280,918	17.47	546,919	663,255	21.27	42,925	43,334	0.95
2016	1,974,191	2,510,697	27.18	540,898	740,492	36.90	43,812	45,283	3.36
2017	1,937,549	2,861,550	47.69	513,639	864,227	68.26	45,583	47,595	4.41
er (the average relative residual)			10.14			11.69			1.44
P (the model prediction accuracy)			89.86			88.31			98.56
2018	2,008,020	3,394,752	69.06	514,727	1,052,638	104.50	48,075	50,297	4.62
2019	1,527,710	685,638,528	↑	419,036	204,746,758	↑	50,504	557,359	↑