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Abstract
Germany is one of the Western countries in which the impact of the second demographic transition is most apparent. Among many other effects on socioeconomic systems, demographic shrinkage will seriously challenge the housing market. Recent studies hypothesize that a demography-induced fall in demand could hit not only multi-storey residential buildings but also single-family housing estates. As yet, these claims are not based on convincing empirical evidence. Against this background, this paper aims to address the future perspectives of single-family homes based on 29 case studies and a mixed-methods quantitative and qualitative design. Although the analysed housing estates are still fully occupied, several local policy-makers and real estate experts report on market changes, with pressures on housing prices and a long-term risk of housing vacancies. Finally, the paper presents a framework of strategic action, comprising a range of measures that local authorities can take.
Notes
1. In this paper, we will henceforth refer to both single- and two-family homes as single-family homes.
2. The decision to leave out the eastern part of Germany was founded on the fact that during the GDR period single-family housing construction remained at a very low level for political reasons.
3. A large stock of single-family homes (built between 1949 and 1978), combined with low property values and accelerated demographic ageing, was regarded as a sign of a looming housing oversupply. Regional characteristics, such as a peripheral location, continuing out-migration, a drop in family households, job losses and low income growth, point to imminent demand problems on the resale market. The variables have been standardized to aggregate them.
4. Primarily, five risk classes (I = very high risk, II = high risk, III = medium risk, IV = low risk and V = very low risk) have been merged into three groups (I + II, III, IV + V).
5. This survey was conducted in 10 selected estates, with some 2,000 questionnaires being sent out. The reply rate was nearly 30%.
6. Comparing the completed questionnaires received with citizen registration data kept by the local authorities, it was found that the age structure of those answering well reflected the actual age structure in the estates; the 65–79 age group was slightly overrepresented and the 30–44 age group slightly underrepresented.
7. This category also includes third and fourth owners.
8. According to the survey ‘Mobilität in Deutschland 2008’ (Follmer et al. Citation2010), 1.18 cars were available per household on average in Germany.