ABSTRACT
Background: Araucaria forests are mountain ecosystems that might have expanded in the late Holocene, however past distributions remain uncertain. If current distribution reflects climatic conditions, past and future distributions may be projected using climate models.
Aims: To contribute to the understanding of past and future distribution of Araucaria forests as a function of climate, we hypothesised that (1) they have increased their geographic distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) until the present; and (2) would contract under predicted future climates.
Methods: We modelled the spatial distributions of Araucaria forests under current, past and future climatic scenarios. Ecological niche models of 12 indicator species were developed using ensemble modelling.
Results: The greatest extent of distribution of Araucaria forests appeared to have occurred during the LGM, after which a continuous retraction followed until the present. Our models suggested that Araucaria forests would experience an even greater retraction in the future.
Conclusion: Araucaria forests could have covered larger areas during the LGM than suggested by earlier palynological studies, because climate was suitable for their distribution. The degree of loss of modelled distribution area since the LGM until today indicate these forests are likely to continue to shrink under projected future climatic changes.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Ary Teixeira de Oliveira Filho for providing the data for indicator species.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
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Notes on contributors
Rodrigo S. Bergamin
Rodrigo S. Bergamin is a research fellow, interested in climate change impacts on the distribution and performance of tree species in the Atlantic Forest.
Vanderlei Debastiani
Vanderlei Debastiani is a research fellow whose research focuses on phylogenetic and evolutionary ecology with emphasis in ecological and evolutionary data analysis and simulation.
Daiany C. Joner
Daiany C. Joner is a Ph.D. student, interested in population and community ecology, biodiversity and conservation.
Priscila Lemes
Priscila Lemes is a research fellow, working on topics of theoretical and applied ecology, with emphasis on conservation biogeography, systematic planning for conservation and ecological niche modelling.
Taís Guimarães
Taís Guimarães is a Ph.D. student. Her main interest is in landscape ecology and spatial analysis of hydrographic basins.
Rafael D. Loyola
Rafael D. Loyola is a professor, director of the Laboratory of Conservation Biogeography that provides scientific support to environmental decision-making in Brazil.
Sandra C. Müller
Sandra C. Müller is a professor. Her main interest is in community ecology, with focus on patterns and processes associated with the dynamics of disturbances and succession, species and functional diversity.