Empirically based analysis of households coping with unexpected shocks in the central Himalayas

ABSTRACT

Climate change may significantly impact the large number of households in developing countries depending on agricultural production, not least through changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of climatic hazards resulting in household income shocks. This paper analyses rural households’ responses to past experiences of and future expectations to substantial and unexpected negative and positive agricultural income shocks. Empirical data is derived from an environmentally-augmented structured household (n = 112) survey in the high mountains of central Nepal. Multinomial logit regression, using data on rural household demographics, assets (agricultural land, livestock), value of other assets such as furniture, bicycles, and agricultural implements, and income sources showed that household coping choices are determined by opportunities to generate cash. We argue that public policies should enhance the ability of rural household to generate cash income, including through environmental products.

KEYWORDS:

• Coping
• livelihoods
• vulnerability
• Nepal

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on Contributors

Lea Ravnkilde Møller focuses on quantitative research related to the impacts of climate change on rural households and decision-making, including issues related to adaptation and mitigation in agriculture and forestry.

Carsten Smith-Hall’s research is focused on environment–livelihood relationships in the Global South, including the role of environmental resources in preventing and reducing poverty, environmental products and human health, and commercial utilization of biodiversity, including value chains.

Henrik Meilby’s research interests lie in assessment and monitoring of living natural resources, including vegetation and wildlife, resource management, economics of sustainable resource use, and the interaction between nature and society.

Santosh Rayamajhi is engaged in research on forests and natural resources management, ranging from livelihoods to issues of decentralized natural resource governance and engagement in biophysical projects such as the establishment and maintenance of permanent sample plots.

Lise Byskov Herslund is focused on human geography and research on urban and regional development in both the Global North and the Global South, especially focusing on capacities for collective action and community-led development and change, and people's daily lives and living conditions.

Helle Overgaard Larsen is focused on livelihoods and participatory resource management, as well as engaged in issues related to biodiversity conservation and capacity building.

Øystein Juul Nielsen is particularly engaged in issues related to quantitative analysis of the economic importance of environmental products in rural livelihoods, including modelling, and forestry sector investments.

Anja Byg focuses on interdisciplinary research on human–environment relationships, particularly local perceptions and use of the environment, including people’s priorities and values, perceptions of environmental changes, and how such changes impact people. A related interest is the topic of sustainable use and management of the environment.

ORCID

Carsten Smith-Hall http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3908-3002

Henrik Meilby http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3770-3880

Lise Byskov Herslund http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6085-3094

Anja Byg http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9311-9526

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by The Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU), a programme committee under the Danish Council for Strategic Research [grant number 104.Dan.8.L.716].