Assessing fossil fuel substitution through wood use based on long-term simulations

Figures & data

Figure 1. C effects (annual) of the value strategy scenario's C effect (2011 to 2100): Forest and harvested wood product (HWP) C stock, fuel and material substitution, total C effect – status quo approach for fossil fuel substitution.

Figure 2. C effects (annual) of the value strategy scenario (2011 to 2100): Forest and harvested wood product (HWP) C stock, fuel and material substitution, total C effect – marginal fossil approach for fossil fuel substitution.

Figure 3. C effects (annual) of the value strategy scenario's C effect (2011 to 2100): Forest and harvested wood product (HWP) C stock, fuel and material substitution, total C effect – changing energy mix approach for fossil fuel substitution.

Figure 4. C effects (cumulative) of the value strategy scenario (2011 to 2100): forest C stock (dotted line), sum of all C effects for the combined system forest and wood use (forest and harvested wood product [HWP] C stock, fuel and material substitution; solid lines).

Figure 5. C effects (cumulative) for all forest management scenarios (2011 to 2100): forest C stock (dotted line), sum of all C effects for the combined system forest and wood use (forest and harvested wood product [HWP] C stock, fuel and material substitution; solid lines) – fossil fuel substitution: status quo.

Figure 6. C effects (cumulative) for all forest management scenarios (2011 to 2100): forest C stock (dotted line), sum of all C effects for the combined system forest and wood use (forest and harvested wood product [HWP] C stock, fuel and material substitution; solid lines) – fossil fuel substitution: changing energy mix and marginal fossil.

Table 1. Forest management scenarios rated against approaches used to analyze substitution effects (+ positive effect to +++ very positive effect).

		Forest management scenarios
		Volume strategy	Value strategy	Carbon storage strategy	Evaluation considering the overall C balance
Approaches for substitution	Status quo	2011–2040: ++	2011–2040: ++	2011–2040: ++	Increased wood use in the long term (from 2040) beneficial; short term (until 2040) equally beneficial
		2041–2070: ++	2041–2070: ++	2041–2070: +
		2071–2100: +++	2071–2100: ++	2071–2100: +
	Changing energy mix	2011–2100: +	2011–2100: +	2011–2100: +	Scenarios show equal benefit; from 2050 dominated by the development of the forest carbon stock
	Marginal fossil	2011–2100: +++	2011–2100: ++	2011–2100: +	Increase of wood use beneficial over the entire observation period, best for volume strategy