Policy evaluations of the Renewable Fuel Standard and agricultural land use changes in three Midwestern states for a decade: variables that influence significant changes in crop decisions are not all about ethanol

Abstract

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been highly successful in developing the biofuels industry in the United States. However, opponents claim the RFS is directly responsible for increased agricultural land use change, primarily increased corn production at the expense of other crops. This study addresses these claims and concludes multiple variables, independent of the RFS, impact these changes. Agricultural land use changes for acres planted in corn and soybeans in the top three corn-producing states (Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska) were studied. Three categories of independent variables were tested to determine their association with agricultural land use changes: (1) weather, including crop development and precipitation; (2) commodity prices at planting; and (3) acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). A microanalysis of the 10 counties in each state with the most change was also conducted. This analysis supports the conclusion that the RFS cannot be solely responsible for agricultural land use change. Most notably, excessive planting season precipitation and commodity prices had the greatest influence on agricultural land use changes. The success of the RFS should not be associated with causing agricultural land use change, as the RFS is simply a small component of a more complex system.

Keywords:

• Agricultural land use change
• Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)
• Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Acknowledgements

Special thanks go to Josh Pritsolas for his assistance with interpolating the precipitation data and to Dr. Carolyn Butts-Wilmsmeyer for her statistical assistance. Thank you to Arta Cavazos for her assistance with editing and reviewing this work. Also, thank you to the reviewers at the Southern Political Science Association (SPSA) 2020 Annual Conference for their valuable feedback that helped strengthen this work. Thank you to Courtney Breckenridge for being the co-presenter of this work at the SPSA conference.

Competing interests

There are no financial or non-financial competing interests to report.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are publicly available at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/, and https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/conservation-programs/reports-and-statistics/conservation-reserve-program-statistics/index

Additional information

Funding

This work was funded by Southern Illinois University Edwardsville’s Research Grants for Graduate Students.