Globalization and obesity in the GCC countries

Figures & data

Figure 1. KOF Globalization Index (0–100) in the GCC countries between 1975 and 2016. ARE stands for United Arab Emirates; BHR for Bahrain; KWT for Kuwait; OMN for Oman; QAT for Qatar; and SAU for Saudi Arabia. Source: Authors' own compilation based on raw data from KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

Figure 2. Obesity rates across select regions between 1975 and 2016. The EU includes all 28 EU countries as of 2016. The MENA does not include the GCC countries. South America includes only countries on continental South America and does not include the Caribbean island nations. North America includes the USA, Canada, and Mexico. South-East Asia includes countries in South-East and East Asia. Authors' own compilation based on raw data from the WHO.

Table 1. Data sources.

Variable	Source	Period
Obesity rates	World Health Organization https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight	1975–2016
Education index (HDI Index)	United Nations Development Programme http://hdr.undp.org/en/data	1990–2016
KOF globalization indices	KOF Swiss Economic Institute https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html#	1975–2016
Real GDP per capita, population	World Bank https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators	1975–2016
Urbanization and female labor participation		1990–2016
Food imports (trade flows)	BACI Database from CEPII http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=37 see Gaulier and Zignago (2010)	1995–2016

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of all variables used.

Variable	All countries					GCC countries
	Obs	Mean	Std. dev.	Min	Max	Obs	Mean	Std. dev.	Min	Max
Obesity (%)	4779	12.91	8.24	0.30	37.30	162	23.76	5.82	10.90	37.00
Glob. Index	4646	55.49	16.45	19.20	91.31	162	61.22	7.61	44.50	75.14
Econ. Glob. Index	4592	53.95	16.14	14.26	95.29	162	70.26	8.27	51.92	86.57
Trade Glob. Index	4566	52.74	17.61	10.95	96.97	162	72.70	9.47	50.73	92.11
Fin. Glob. Index	4619	55.01	17.37	8.59	98.20	162	67.91	10.15	51.14	88.16
Social Glob. Index	4673	52.54	21.02	6.54	92.27	162	63.66	9.34	39.31	79.21
GDP per cap (USD)	4547	11832.06	17132.84	164.34	111968.35	147	34045.24	18210.18	14903.15	69679.09
Urbanization (%)	4774	54.53	22.80	5.42	100.00	162	86.67	9.46	66.10	100.00
Population (millions)	4594	36.35	133.31	0.04	1378.67	159	5.99	8.31	0.48	32.44
HDI	4334	0.65	0.17	0.19	0.95	152	0.79	0.04	0.67	0.86
Education index	4427	0.57	0.19	0.08	0.94	152	0.61	0.08	0.38	0.80
Female labor force part.	4731	50.56	16.77	6.09	90.56	162	35.32	11.87	14.50	58.25

Figure 3. GCC food imports (millions USD) of healthy and unhealthy foods. Products are classified as unhealthy based on the USDA classification of unhealthy foods. A list of healthy and healthy products is provided in Table A2 (Appendix 2). Source: Authors’ own compilation.

Table 3. Benchmark results from estimating equation (1) using the Arellano and Bond GMM estimator.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Obesity (1st lag)	0.816***	0.517	0.970**	1.055**	0.944***
	(0.239)	(0.613)	(0.385)	(0.415)	(0.326)
Obesity (2nd lag)	0.182	0.479	0.035	−0.053	0.055
	(0.243)	(0.616)	(0.391)	(0.421)	(0.332)
Glob index	0.006
	(0.006)
Glob index * GCC	0.031***
	(0.010)
Social global		0.010
		(0.006)
Social global * GCC		0.038**
		(0.017)
Economic lib.			0.000
			(0.004)
Economic lib * GCC			0.058*
			(0.031)
Financial lib.				−0.001
				(0.003)
Financial lib * GCC				0.049*
				(0.027)
Trade lib.					0.004
					(0.005)
Trade lib * GCC					0.089*
					(0.051)
Urban.	0.004	0.004	0.001	0.003	0.003
	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.005)
Log GDP capita	0.181	0.165	0.292	0.238	0.281
	(0.170)	(0.303)	(0.245)	(0.289)	(0.282)
Log GDP capita (sq)	0.004	0.044	−0.032	−0.036	−0.010
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.053)	(0.062)	(0.066)
Educ. index	0.920	1.620	0.945	0.154	0.967
	(0.900)	(1.072)	(1.149)	(1.365)	(1.465)
Fem. labor part.	−0.003	−0.009	−0.001	0.003	−0.000
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.014)
Number of obs.	3927	3927	3901	3901	3895
AR(1) p-value	0.148	0.893	0.213	0.199	0.077
AR(2) p-value	0.392	0.969	0.307	0.299	0.162
Hansen test overid. Restr. p-value	0.575	0.486	0.513	0.574	0.566

Notes: Dependent variable is the share of the population that is considered obese (having a BMI of more than 30). The first-differenced equation is instrumented using the 3rd and 4th lags of the dependent variable and the 1st to 3rd lags of the independent variables except for the year dummies. We use robust standard errors. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels respectively. The AR(1) and AR(2) statistics report the results of test for autocorrelation in the first-differenced residuals. The null hypothesis is no-autocorrelation of the corresponding order. The null hypothesis of the Hansen test of overidentifying restrictions is that the excluded instruments are uncorrelated with the residuals.

Figure A1. KOF Social Globalization Index (0–100) in the GCC countries between 1975 and 2016. ARE stands for United Arab Emirates; BHR for Bahrain; KWT for Kuwait; OMN for Oman; QAT for Qatar; and SAU for Saudi Arabia. Source: Authors’ own compilation based on raw data from KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

Figure A2. KOF Economic Globalization Index (0–100) in the GCC countries between 1975 and 2016. ARE stands for United Arab Emirate; BHR for Bahrain; KWT for Kuwait; OMN for Oman; QAT for Qatar; and SAU for Saudi Arabia. Source: Authors’ own compilation based on raw data from KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

Figure A3. Obesity rates (percentages of populations) in the GCC countries between 1975 and 2016. ARE stands for United Arab Emirate; BHR for Bahrain; KWT for Kuwait; OMN for Oman; QAT for Qatar; and SAU for Saudi Arabia. Source: Authors’ own compilation based on raw data from the WHO.

Figure A4. Food imports, population, and GDP per capita indices in the GCC countries between 1995 (= 100) and 2016. Authors’ own compilation based on raw data from the World Bank.

Figure A5. Food imports in the GCC countries from various sources between 1995 and 2016. Authors’ own compilation based on trade data from CEPII (BACI).

Figure A6. Indices of the top eight products (HS-2 digit) imported into the GCC between 1995 (= 100) and 2016. Authors’ own compilation.

Table A1. List of countries in the sample.

Afghanistan	Botswana	Cyprus	Gambia	Italy	Maldives	Oman	Serbia	Trinidad and Tobago
Albania	Brazil	Czechia	Georgia	Jamaica	Mali	Pakistan	Seychelles	Tunisia
Algeria	Brunei	Côte d'Ivoire	Germany	Japan	Malta	Panama	Sierra Leone	Turkey
Andorra	Bulgaria	North Korea	Ghana	Jordan	Mauritania	Papua New Guinea	Singapore	Turkmenistan
Angola	Burkina Faso	Dem Rep Congo	Greece	Kazakhstan	Mauritius	Paraguay	Slovakia	Uganda
Argentina	Burundi	Denmark	Grenada	Kenya	Mexico	Peru	Slovenia	Ukraine
Armenia	Cambodia	Djibouti	Guatemala	Korea	Moldova	Philippines	Solomon Islands	United Arab Emirates
Australia	Cameroon	Dominica	Guinea	Kuwait	Mongolia	Bolivia	Somalia	United Kingdom
Austria	Canada	Dominican Rep	Guinea-Bissau	Kyrgyzstan	Montenegro	Poland	South Africa	United States
Azerbaijan	Cape Verde	Ecuador	Guyana	Laos	Morocco	Portugal	Spain	Uruguay
Bahamas	Central Afr Rep	Egypt	Haiti	Latvia	Mozambique	Qatar	Sri Lanka	Uzbekistan
Bahrain	Chad	El Salvador	Honduras	Lebanon	Myanmar	Romania	Suriname	Vanuatu
Bangladesh	Chile	Equatorial Guinea	Hungary	Lesotho	Namibia	Russia	Sweden	Venezuela
Barbados	China	Eritrea	Iceland	Liberia	Nepal	Rwanda	Switzerland	Vietnam
Belarus	Colombia	Estonia	India	Libya	Netherlands	St. Kitts and Nevis	Syria	Yemen
Belgium	Comoros	Ethiopia	Indonesia	Lithuania	New Zealand	St. Lucia	Tajikistan	Zambia
Belize	Congo	Fiji	Iran	Luxembourg	Nicaragua	St. Vincent Grenadines	Tanzania	Zimbabwe
Benin	Costa Rica	Finland	Iraq	Madagascar	Niger	Sao Tome Principe	Thailand
Bhutan	Croatia	France	Ireland	Malawi	Nigeria	Saudi Arabia	Timor-Leste
Bosnia Herzegovina	Cuba	Gabon	Israel	Malaysia	Norway	Senegal	Togo

Table A2. List of HS-2 products classified as healthy or unhealthy.

HS-2 code	Product	Unhealthy product	Healthy product
01	Animals; live	x
02	Meat and edible meat offal	x
03	Fish		x
04	Dairy produce	x
07	Vegetables		x
08	Fruits and nuts		x
09	Coffee, tea, mate and spices		x
10	Cereals (whole)		x
11	Products of the milling industry	x
12	Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits	x
15	Animal or vegetable fats and oils	x
16	Processed meat	x
17	Sugars and sugar confectionery	x
18	Cocoa and cocoa preparations	x
19	Processed cereal products	x
20	Processed vegetables, fruit, nuts	x
21	Miscellaneous proceed food	x
22	Beverages	x
23	Food industries waste (animal feed)	x

Note: Based on the USDA classification of unhealthy foods.

Table A3. Coefficients of correlation of the underlying globalization indices.

	All countries				GCC countries
	Social Glob.	Economic Glob.	Financial Glob.	Trade Glob.	Social Glob.	Economic Glob.	Financial Glob.	Trade Glob.
Social Glob.	1				1
Economic Glob.	0.79	1			0.9906	1
Financial Glob.	0.7237	0.9254	1		0.986	0.996	1
Trade Glob.	0.7346	0.9205	0.704	1	0.9876	0.9964	0.9848	1

Table A4. Robustness checks.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	GMM Excl. sq. GDP per capita	FE model	FE with trend	FE with Lagged ind. Var.	Cross-sectional dependence
Glob index	0.005	−0.007	−0.007	−0.005	−0.007
	(0.006)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.006)
Glob index * GCC	0.033***	0.143***	0.135*	0.134*	0.135***
	(0.009)	(0.053)	(0.071)	(0.069)	(0.029)
Social global	0.007	−0.013	−0.015	−0.010	−0.015**
	(0.008)	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.005)
Social global * GCC	0.035*	0.140***	0.138***	0.137***	0.138***
	(0.019)	(0.038)	(0.046)	(0.044)	(0.019)
Economic lib.	−0.001	0.015	0.014	0.015	0.014***
	(0.003)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.004)
Economic lib * GCC	0.060***	0.091***	0.070*	0.077**	0.068***
	(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.039)	(0.035)	(0.018)
Financial lib.	−0.001	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.002
	(0.002)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.003)
Financial lib * GCC	0.050*	0.087***	0.069**	0.066**	0.068***
	(0.029)	(0.021)	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.022)
Trade lib.	0.003	0.019*	0.017*	0.018*	0.017***
	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.004)
Trade lib * GCC	0.083**	0.065***	0.038	0.057*	0.038
	(0.042)	(0.018)	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.029)

Note: Dependent variable is the share of the population that is considered obese (having a BMI of more than 30). The fixed effects estimations include country fixed effects with year dummies. All standard errors are robust to heteroscedasticity. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels respectively.

Gaulier, G., & Zignago, S. (2010). BACI: International trade database at the product-level. The 1994–2007 version (CEPII Working Paper 2010-23). CEPII.

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Data availability statement

The ‘obesity’ data that support the findings of this study are available from the World Health Organization (WHO) (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight). The ‘KOF Globalization Index’ data are available from ‘KOF Swiss Economic Institute’ (https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html#). Data on ‘Human Development Index’ (HDI) are available from the ‘United Nations Development Programme’ (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). Other data used in the paper are available from the ‘World Bank’ (https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators).