Trends and influences of al Qaeda in Iraq during operation Iraqi freedom

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to better understand trends and influences of terrorist behavior of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and related groups during and directly following Operation Iraqi Freedom. Terror attacks in Iraq carried out by AQI from 2003 through 2012 were analyzed, with data taken from the Global Terrorism Database. Trends in the data were examined to determine the impact of a variety of events including religious holidays, elections both in Iraq and in the USA, the US troop ‘surge’, the Anbar Awakening, the killing of terrorist leaders, and the drawdown and eventual withdrawal of US troops from the country. Changes tracked included frequency fluctuations of attacks, various types and targets of attacks, and severity of attacks (measured by the number of fatalities an attack produced). The analyses indicate that when planning and conducting terrorist attacks, AQI terrorists are tactical though not necessarily driven by a commitment to regularly carry out attacks in connection with certain significant dates or events. Also, of all groups targeted, Shia Muslim targets suffered the most vicious attacks, especially after the withdrawal of US and coalition forces.

Keywords:

• al Qaeda
• Iraq
• Shia

Notes

1. Data for OIF from the US Department of Defense, http://www.defense.gov/news/casualty.pdf, Vietnam and Korean Wars data as reported by the Department of Veterans Affairs, http://www.va.gov/opa/publications/factsheets/fs_americas_wars.pdf.

2. Hooker (2005, pp. 6–9) notes that the OIF strategy went through many revisions; the final plan adopted was actually one of the more aggressive plans proposed, sending in a relatively large number of troops when compared to some of the other options.

3. It should be noted that in early 2014, al Qaeda officially separated itself from ISI/ISIS/ISIL. Conflict began almost immediately between Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi over the brutality of his tactics and the indiscriminate targeting of other Muslims, even Sunnis; the conflict continued to escalate after the death of both men. As of early 2014, al Qaeda has no official presence in Iraq and its only official presence in Syria is in the form of Jabhat al Nusra, with whom ISIS is now in active conflict. For more information, see Jenkins (2014), Signs (2014), and Sly (2014).

4. Al Qaida in Iraq-related groups active during this period in Iraq include al Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar al Islam, Ansar al Sunna, Brigades of Iman Hassan al Basri, Islamic State of Iraq, Jaish al Taifa al Mansura, Jaish e Mohammad, Mujahedeen Shura Council, Takfir wal Hijra, and Tawhid and Jihad. The connections between AQI and these related groups came from the Terrorist Organization Profiles from the GTD website (http://www.start.umd.edu/tops/).

5. Major Islamic holidays included for examination are Eid Ul Adha, al Hijra (Islamic New Year), Ashura, Milad un Nabi, beginning of Ramadan, Laila al Qadr, and Eid Ul Fitr (end of Ramadan).