Tourism expansion and economic development: Evidence from the United States and China

ABSTRACT

The United States has been the largest economy in the world since 1871, but its position is currently threatened by China. Both countries play important roles in the global hospitality and tourism industry, and China and the United States, specifically, represent a classic comparison of Eastern and Western economies and cultures. This study examines and compares the causal relationships between tourism expansion and economic development in the two countries. We augment the existing literature by using quarterly instead of annual data and taking potential structural breaks into account. The interesting outcome of this study is that both the United States and China exhibit economic-driven tourism expansion, but neither of them support the conventional view of tourism-led growth. There is no long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism expansion and economic development in the United States, while one exists in China. Study conclusions are strengthened by testing the sensitivity of the Granger causality test to different lag selections.

摘要

自從1871年以來, 美國即是世界最大經濟體, 但其在世界經濟地位近年來受到中國的挑戰。美國與中國的比較代表著西方與東方經濟和文化差異的典型對比。本論文檢視與比較這兩大國的旅遊擴張與經濟發展之因果關係。相較現存文獻多使用旅遊與經濟變數的年資料, 本文使用季資料並考慮時間序列中潛在的結構性轉變。實證結果發現美國和中國的資料都支持經濟發展可帶動旅遊擴張的假說, 並且中美兩國資料都不支持旅遊擴張可帶動經濟發展此文獻中傳統觀點。兩國相較差異在於:在中國資料中旅遊擴張與經濟發展(GDP成長率)存在長期共整合關係, 惟在美國資料中兩者不存在長期關係。選擇不同迴歸滯後期數的健全性測試亦支持本文結論。

KEYWORDS:

• Tourism expansion
• economic growth
• cointegration
• Granger causality
• The United States and China

关键词:

• 旅遊擴張
• 經濟成長
• 共整合
• 格蘭傑因果關係
• 美國和中國

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Chia-Ning Chiu

Chia-Ning Chiu is Assistant Professor in Department of Leisure Industry and Health Promotion at National Ilan University, Taiwan. Her research interests include tourism economics, hospitality efficiency, and sustainable development (E-mail: [email protected]).