Bio-plastics in the context of competing demands on agricultural land in 2050

Figures & data

Figure 1 Global production capacity for compostable (biodegradable) and non-compostable BDPs (European Bioplastics 2009).

Figure 2 Projections for global population growth to 2050. High, mid and low projections used in the research are plotted against a selection of projections reported in the literature (FAO, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations 2011; USCB, US Census Bureau 2011; UN 93, Haub 1994; UN 98, United Nations 2008; PAI, Young et al. 2009).

Table 1 Definition of LOW, MID and HIGH consumption scenarios, based on projections to the year 2050.

		Consumption scenarios 2050
		LOW	MID	HIGH
Total global population		8 × 10^9	9.5 × 10^9	12 × 10^9
Food requirement (GE per capita, kg)		475	875	1530
Liquid fuel requirement (total, litres)	Petrol	2.6 × 10^12	3.4 × 10^12	4.1 × 10^12
	Diesel	1.9 × 10^12	2.5 × 10^12	3.0 × 10^12
Plastic requirement (total, kg)		3.4 × 10^11	7.0 × 10^11	13.0 × 10^11
Note: Food requirement data taken from Penning de Vries et al. (1995). Calculation of all other data projections is detailed in Section 3.

Figure 3 Global demand for liquid fuels, projected to 2050. Petrol and diesel account for around 75% of global crude oil demand. Original data sources and projection calculations are detailed in Section 3.

Figure 4 Global demand for plastics, projected to 2050. Original data sources and projection calculations are detailed in Section 3.

Figure 5 Historic data for land use (Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations 2011) in comparison with global population growth, between 1950 and 2010.

Table 2 Definition of HIGH, MID and LOW productivity scenarios, based on projections to the year 2050.

	Productivity scenarios 2050
	HIGH	MID	LOW
Average agricultural yield (kg GE m^− 2)	0.72	0.35	0.25
Average bio-ethanol yield (L m^− 2)	0.80	0.55	0.30
Average bio-diesel yield (L m^− 2)	0.20	0.15	0.10
Average BDP yield (kg m^− 2)	0.35	0.24	0.13
Total land availability (m^2)	8.7 × 10^13
Crop land (m^2)	1.6 × 10^13
Grazing land (m^2)	3.4 × 10^13
Forest (m^2)	3.8 × 10^13
Note: Land availability is assumed to be constant for all scenarios. Calculation of data projections is detailed in Section 3.

Figure 6 Scenario results for LOW, MID and HIGH consumption scenarios in combination with HIGH productivity.

Figure 7 Scenario results for LOW, MID and HIGH consumption scenarios in combination with MID productivity.

Figure 8 Scenario results for LOW, MID and HIGH consumption scenarios in combination with LOW productivity.

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