Revealed and stated preferences for reliable commuter rail in Norway

Figures & data

Table 1. Period ticket holders and train delays (average minutes per train) for each origin and destination.

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Inward commutes (to Oslo/Akershus):
Period tickets	6,486	34.9	84.0	0.0	973.0
Delay, morning	6,486	2.2	1.5	0.1	11.1
Delay, return	6,486	3.7	2.2	0.1	16.0
Outward commutes (from Oslo/Akershus):
Period tickets	5,657	11.2	22.8	0.0	245.0
Delay, morning	5,657	2.9	1.9	0.1	14.2
Delay, return	5,657	2.6	1.8	0.1	15.1
Other (outside Oslo/Akershus):
Period tickets	5,679	6.6	12.5	0.0	127.0
Delay, morning	5,679	2.4	1.9	0.1	14.2
Delay, return	5,679	3.4	2.1	0.0	14.8
All commutes:
Period tickets	17,822	18.3	54.2	0.0	973.0
Delay, morning	17,822	2.5	1.8	0.1	14.2
Delay, return	17,822	3.3	2.1	0.0	16.0

Note: Morning trips are defined as trips starting and ending between 4 AM and 10 AM. Return trips are trips starting and ending between 3 PM and 7 PM.

Table 2. The effect of train delays on demand for period tickets.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Delay, morning+return	−0.09***	−0.05***	−0.04***	−0.05***	−0.02*
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Delay, morning+return (t-1)					−0.03**
					(0.01)
No. of trains, morning	−0.19	0.05	0.11	0.01	0.11
	(0.13)	(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.10)	(0.12)
No. of trains, return	−0.11	−0.05	−0.00	0.08**	−0.00
	(0.07)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.05)
Time trend	0.01***	0.01***
	(0.00)	(0.00)
Observations	17,822	17,822	17,822	17,822	15,701
R-squared	0.08	0.50	0.57	0.58	0.59
Season fixed effects	No	Yes	No	No	No
Time fixed effects	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Line-specific trends	No	No	No	Yes	No

Note: All variables except time are in logarithms. All specifications include origin-destination (O-D) fixed effects. Each column indicates which explanatory variables are included and whether the model includes additional fixed effects or time trends. The number of observations is lower in column (5) because average delay in the previous month is missing for some observations. Observations are weighted based on the average number of period ticket holders. Standard errors clustered on origin and destination. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table 3. The effect of train delays on morning and return trips on demand for period tickets, by travel direction.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	All	Inward	Outward	Other
Delay, morning	−0.00	−0.03	−0.00	0.01
	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)
Delay, return	−0.03***	−0.00	−0.05***	0.03
	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
No. of trains, morning	0.12	0.34*	−0.01	0.08
	(0.12)	(0.18)	(0.08)	(0.24)
No. of trains, return	−0.01	−0.06	−0.09	0.07
	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.08)	(0.27)
Observations	17,822	6486	5657	5679
R-squared	0.57	0.70	0.45	0.38
Season fixed effects	No	No	No	No
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Line-specific trends	No	No	No	No

Note: All variables are in logarithms. All specifications include origin-destination (O-D) fixed effects. The different columns show results for (1) all commuting trips, (2) trips to Oslo/Akershus from the regions outside, (3) trips from Oslo/Akershus to the regions outside and (4) trips with both origin and destination outside Oslo/Akershus. Observations are weighted based on the average number of period ticket holders. Standard errors clustered on origin and destination. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table 4. Demand elasticities with respect to delays, based on stated preferences (SP).

Trip	VTTS	RR	Delay (min.)	Price (NOK 2017)	Price elasticity (ηP)	Delay elasticity (ηD)
Drammen – Oslo	103	2.05	5.1	69.2	−0.65	−0.17
Tønsberg – Oslo	103	2.05	7.4	134.0	−0.65	−0.13
Fredrikstad – Oslo	103	2.05	7.3	125.8	−0.65	−0.13
Hamar – Oslo	103	2.05	6.2	153.4	−0.65	−0.09
Drammen – Oslo	103	2.05	5.1	69.2	−0.39	−0.10
Tønsberg – Oslo	103	2.05	7.4	134.0	−0.39	−0.08
Fredrikstad – Oslo	103	2.05	7.3	125.8	−0.39	−0.08
Hamar – Oslo	103	2.05	6.2	153.4	−0.39	−0.06

Note: Delay refers to the average total delay per day (morning and return trip) and price refers to the average price per day if the commuter travels every working day (Monday–Friday).