Future scenarios for N₂O emissions from biodiesel production in Europe

Figures & data

Figure 1. The selected 42 river basins draining to coastal waters of the EU-27.

Table 1. Scenario descriptions: assumptions about growing energy crops in the study area for three scenarios, using the GO 2050 MA scenario as a baseline (S0).

Scenario
S0	Baseline scenario, assuming no production of energy crops and a reduction in the total agricultural area in the study region between 2000 and 2050^a
S1	As S0, but assuming that: - 10% of the total area of each watershed in S0 is used for energy crops^b and in addition: - 10% of the existing agricultural land of each watershed in S0 is used for energy crops.
S2	As S0, but assuming that 30% of the existing agricultural land in S0 is used for energy crops^c
S3	As S0, but assuming that 60% of the existing agricultural land in S0 is used for energy crops^d

^a This scenario is the MA 2050 scenario Global Orchestration as implemented in Global NEWS (Seitzinger et al. 2010).

^b This area has been taken from the non-agricultural area in S0.

^c Scenarios S1 and S2 have a comparable yield of energy crops (and therefore of biodiesel).

^d Based on (Fischer et al. 2010).

Figure 2. Land use in the scenarios S0–S3 (total area: 2.9 10⁶ km², see Table 1 for scenario descriptions; source: Global NEWS).

Table 2. Total N₂O emissions (Gg N₂O/y) from the use of synthetic fertilisers in the baseline scenario and the biofuel scenarios (S0–S3, see for description Table 1) and in 2000 and the increase of N₂O emissions in the biofuel scenarios relative to S0^a and 2000^b.

Scenario	Total N2O emission (Gg N2O/y)	Increase in total N2O emission (relative to S0)^a (%)	Increase in total N2O emission (relative to 2000)^b (%)
2000	158	–	–
S0	178	–	13
S1	259	45	64
S2	221	24	40
S3	264	48	67

^a Calculated (for scenario Sx) as (Sx–S0)/S0 × 100%.

^b Calculated (for scenario Sx) as (Sx-2000)/2000 × 100%.

Figure 3. Increase in biogenic N₂O emissions (direct and indirect) associated with the use of synthetic fertilisers in the three future scenarios S1–S3 (as percentage of the baseline scenario S0, calculated (for scenario Sx) as N₂O emission ((Sx–S0)/S0×100%) (see Table 1 for scenario overview).

Table 3. The difference^a in biogenic N₂O emissions (kg N₂O/ha/y) from selected river basins as a result of synthetic fertiliser use in energy crop cultivation in the year 2050. Differences are presented for our future scenarios (S1–S3), relative to the baseline scenario S0 (see for scenario description Table 1). Unit: difference with S0 in kg/ha/y (in parentheses the % change relative to S0). The last two columns show the N₂O emissions in S0 in the year 2050 in kg/ha/y.

River basin	N2O emission in S1 (kg N2O/ha/y)	N2O emission in S1 (kg N2O/ha agr area/y)	N2O emission in S2 (kg N2O/ha/y)	N2O emission in S2 (kg N2O/ha agr area/y) ^b	N2O emission in S3 (kg N2O/ha/y)	N2O emission in S3 (kg N2O/ha agr area/y) ^b	N2O emission in S0 (kg N2O/ha/y)	N2O emission in S0 (kg N2O/ha agr area/y)
Danube	0.3 (65%)	0.48 (55%)	0.25 (50%)	0.44 (50%)	0.49 (101%)	0.88 (101%)	0.49	0.87
Loire	0.3 (30%)	0.36 (27%)	0.23 (22%)	0.30 (22%)	0.45 (44%)	0.59 (44%)	1.03	1.34
Wisla	0.24 (27%)	0.46 (22%)	0.027 (3%)	0.064 (3%)	0.054 (6%)	0.13 (6%)	0.89	2.12
Elbe	0.24 (23%)	0.40 (19%)	0.035 (3%)	0.070 (3%)	0.070 (7%)	0.14 (7%)	1.06	2.10
Rhine	0.26 (33%)	0.47 (27%)	0.076 (10%)	0.17 (10%)	0.15 (19%)	0.34 (19%)	0.79	1.76
Odra	0.24 (24%)	0.44 (20%)	0.013 (1%)	0.029 (1%)	0.026 (3%)	0.058 (3%)	0.99	2.23
Seine	0.32 (34%)	0.37 (30%)	0.25 (27%)	0.33 (27%)	0.49 (53%)	0.66 (53%)	0.92	1.23
Scheldt	0.27 (18%)	0.30 (16%)	0.11 (8%)	0.14 (8%)	0.22 (15%)	0.28 (15%)	1.47	1.86
Meuse	0.25 (26%)	0.42 (21%)	0.055 (6%)	0.11 (6%)	0.11 (11%)	0.22 (11%)	0.98	1.96
Guadiana	0.32 (82%)	0.49 (70%)	0.28 (69%)	0.49 (69%)	0.55 (139%)	0.98 (139%)	0.40	0.70
Nemanus	0.26 (91%)	0.73 (66%)	0.09 (33%)	0.37 (33%)	0.19 (66%)	0.73 (66%)	0.29	1.11
Shannon	0.20 (22%)	0.59 (15%)	–0.11 (–12%)	–0.46 (–12%)	–0.22 (–24%)	–0.92 (–24%)	0.91	3.86
Humber	0.2 (30%)	0.63 (19%)	–0.07 (–9%)	–0.32 (–9%)	–0.15 (–19%)	–0.64 (–19%)	0.78	3.40

^a The difference in N₂O emissions is calculated (for scenario Sx) as the emission relative to that in the baseline scenario (Sx–S0). In parentheses the difference is expressed as percentage of the N₂O emission in scenario S0 calculated for scenario Sx as (Sx–S0)/S0.

^b In scenarios S2 and S3 the total agricultural area of a river basin does not change comparing to the baseline scenario S0. Therefore, the percentage difference is the same expressed for the total area and the agricultural area.

Table 4. European N₂O emissions (Gg N₂O/y) from synthetic fertilisers in our scenarios for energy crops assuming an N-fertiliser demand that is 25% lower (90 kg N/ha) or 25% higher (150 kg N/ha) than in our (default) energy scenarios (for scenario description see Table 1).

Scenario	Total N2O emission (Gg N2O/y)^a
	N-demand energy crop –25% lower than default	Default N-demand	N-demand energy crop +25% higher than default
S0	–	178	–
S1	234 (–10%)	259	283 (+9%)
S2	196 (–11%)	221	244 (+10%)
S3	215 (–19%)	264	310 17%)

^a In parentheses the change of the N₂O emissions relative to the default scenarios.

Table 5. Total N₂O emissions (Gg N₂O/y) in our scenarios for energy crops if the EFs are low (EF₁ = 0.003 and EF₅ = 0.0005), default (EF₁ = 0.01 and EF₅ = 0.0075) or high (EF₁ = 0.03 and EF₅ = 0.025).

Scenario	Total N2O emission (Gg N2O/y)
	Low EFs	Default EFs	High EFs
S0	46	178	545
S1	67	259	793
S2	57	221	737
S3	68	264	808

Seitzinger SP, Mayorga E, Bouwman AF, Kroeze C, Beusen AHW, Billen G, et al. 2010. Global river nutrient export: a scenario analysis of past and future trends. Global Biogeochem Cycles 24:GB0A08.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Fischer G, Prieler S, van Velthuizen H, Berndes G, Faaij A, Londo M, de Wit M. 2010. Biofuel production potentials in Europe: sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures, Part II: land use scenarios. Biomass Bioenergy. 34:173–187.10.1016/j.biombioe.2009.07.009

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar