Adaptive decision-making under conditions of uncertainty: the case of farming in the Volta delta, Ghana

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map showing the Volta delta.

Source: Addo et al. 2017.

Figure 2. Map of Ghana showing the Ada East District.

Table 1. Decision-making table under water availability condition in 2017.

Months	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Rainfall condition	Abnormal	Normal	Normal	Normal	Normal	Above normal	Below normal	Abnormal	Normal	Normal	Normal	Abnormal
Rainy days	3	0	1	7	14	15	10	5	6	8	5	3
Amount of rainfall	26 mm	-	10 mm	113 mm	201 Mm	80 mm	78.2 mm	14.2 mm	46.4 Mm	70.2 mm	40.8 mm	32.2 mm
Options	Selected Crop			Selected Crop					Selected Crop
Ploughing
Land preparation
Sowing
Nursery
Transplanting
Water resource exploitation
1st Fertilization (N.P.K)
Thinning
Weed control
2nd Fertilization (Urea)
Pest control
Soil moisture conversation
Water conservation
3rd fertilizer (ammonia)
Fruit booster
Harvesting

Source: Authors’ construct based on field interviews, 2017.

Key:

1= selection of option under a specific rainfall condition in a month.

0= No decision-making.

 Preseason,#x00A0;Major season, Minor season, abandoning of options.

Figure 3. Summary of field methods used for data collection.

Source: Authors’ construct based on field interviews, 2017.

Table 2. Patterns of decision-making for the cultivation of watermelon in the preseason.

Months	January				February			March	April					May
Rainfall condition	Abnormal				Normal			Normal	Normal					Normal
Number of rainy days	3				0			1	7					14
Amount of rainfall	26 mm				-			10 mm	113 mm					201 mm
Patterns of decision-making	Selection of options
Pattern 2.1 (21%)	Farm preparation		Sowing of seed	Application of N.P.K	Planted another crop	Weeding	Water	Suspension of farming	Continuation of farming by weeding and application of agro-chemicals					Harvesting
Pattern 2.2 (42%)	Land preparation	Sowing of seeds	Application of fertilizer	Spraying of agrochemicals	Watering and weeding			Suspension of farming activities	Weeding		Application of second fertilizer		Application of fruit booster	Harvesting
Pattern 2.3 (11%)	Land preparation		Flooding of the land with water and sowing	Application of N.P.K	Weeding	Watering		Weeding	Harvesting					Cultivation of new crop
Pattern 2.4 (15%)	Land preparation		Sowing of seeds		Application of N.P.K	Watering	Weeding	Abandoned crops on the farm	Reploughed the farm for main season farming
Pattern 2.5 (11%)	Land preparation				Delay			Sowing of water melon	Application of N.P.K	Weeding		Application of fruit booster		Weeding	Harvesting

Source: Authors’ construct based on field interviews with farmers who cultivated watermelon in 2017 (n = 19).

Table 3. Patterns of decision-making for the cultivation of tomatoes and pepper.

Months	April		May					June			July			August		Sept
Rainfall condition	Normal		Normal					Above normal rainfall			Below rainfall			Abnormal rainfall		Normal
Number of rainy days	7		14					15			10			5		6
Amount of rainfall	113 mm		175 mm					80 mm			78.2 mm			14.2 mm		46.4 mm
Patterns of decision-making	Selection of options
Pattern 3.1 (14%)	Land preparation	Nursing of seeds				Transplanting of seedlings local or hybrids		Weeding	Application of fertilizer	Application of fruit boosters	Spraying		Application of 2nd or 3rd fertilizer	Weeding		Harvesting
Pattern 3.2 (19%)			Land preparation	Nursing of seed			Transplanting	Application of fertilizer	Weeding	Intercropping/Diversification of crops	Weeding		Application of fruit boosters	Spraying		Harvesting
Pattern 3.3 (37%)	Delay		Delay					Delay	Land preparation	Nursing of seeds	Transplanting of hybrid seedlings		Application of fertilizer	Weeding	Application of fruit boosters	Harvesting
Pattern 3.4 (30%)	Land preparation		Nursing of local seeds		Transplanting of seedlings local or hybrids			Weeding	Transplanting of hybrid seedlings	Spraying of the farm	Transplanting of hybrid seedlings	Weeding	Transplanting of hybrid seedlings	Transplanting of hybrid seedlings	Weeding and application of 2nd fertilier	Harvesting in batches

Source: Authors’ construct based on field interviews with farmers who cultivated tomatoes and pepper in 2017 (n = 32).

Table 4. Patterns of decision-making in the minor season.

Months	September				October		November		December
Rainfall condition	Normal				Normal		Normal		Abnormal
Number of rainy days	6				8		5		2
Amount of rainfall	46.4 mm				70.2 mm		40.8 mm		32.2 mm
Patterns of decision-making	Selection of options
Pattern 4.1 (6%)	Harvesting of main season crops				No cultivation of any new crops
Pattern 4.2 (25%)	Harvesting of main season crops				Continual tending of intercrops such as pepper and cassava cultivated in the main season		Harvesting
Pattern 4.3 (13%)	Spraying mango farm with insecticides		Trimming		Continual tending of mango trees			Harvesting
Pattern 4.4 (56%)	Land preparation	Cultivation of either maize, water melon, okra, onion, pepper or Cassava	Application of fertilizer	Weeding	Spraying with agrochemicals	Weeding	Spraying with agrochemicals		Harvesting

Source: Authors’ construct based on field interviews with farmers in 2017 (n = 32).

Table 5. Summary of adaptive decision-making strategies identified in the study.

Type of ADM strategies	Definition	Illustrative farmer quote
Flexible ADM F1: Switching dates by waiting-and-see or delay strategy	Wait-and-see and delay in the start of crop cultivation season in ploughing or sowing seeds, based on the assumption that further observation will provide enough information to understand the consequences for selecting a particular crop	I usually wait and see what is happening and when I see that the weather is not going well then I change my options [In-depth interview with farmer at Kajanya. In-depth interview 1.12]
F2: Muddling through the farming season with the application of additional options	Dealing with variable weather conditions with various options without specific knowledge about how they will perform	… . I continue with other strategies. As you can see, I have bought agrochemicals and have prepared to do anything so that I can generate some harvest. [In-depth interview with farmer at Dogo community. In-depth interview 2.5]
F3: Alternative irrigations strategies	Substitute forms of supplying water to the crops when “below normal” rainfall condition is experienced	Sometimes I draw water from that stagnate water in that wetland … . [II 2.5], Some of us try to transport water in containers to the farm or draw water with the pumping machine or use the pipe water and these are able to sustain the crops uptill a certain level. [In-depth interview with farmer at Bedeku-Kpornya. In-depth Interview 3.2]
Robust ADM R1: Portfolio strategy of transplanting seedlings in batches	Selections of multiple dates to transplant the same crop so that it caters for variable weather conditions	We do not transplant all the seedlings on one date. We do so systematically so that when we transplant tomatoes, at particular date then two weeks’ time we transplant again so that when one fails the other ones will survive. [In-depth Interview with farmer at Tobloku Wassakuse. II 3.2]
R2: Selection of robust (hardy) crops or varieties	Selection of options that yield “good enough” outcomes under varied weather conditions	The thing is that I select a crop that can do well when the rains do not fall again. I have to just weed and then wait for any fruit that will form and that will be my take. But interesting enough, we hardly incur a total loss because by all means, you will harvest some fruits for the household consumption and even manage some for the market [In-depth interview with farmers at Kpodokope. In-depth Interview 1.12]
R3:Intercropping/diversification of drought resistant crops	Collection of multiple selections of crops or varieties of the same crop to the extent that it accounts for relevant constraints, preferences and uncertainties	So when the crop was not thriving well in May, I took the decision to intercropped it with maize [In-depth interview with farmer at Attortorkope. II 1.10]

Authors’ construct based on field interviews with farmers in 2017.

Table A1. List of interviewees.

Agricultural Extension Agents (AEA)	Interviews under extension agents	Date	Name of community	Gender	Irrigation/rainfed	Purpose of farm production
AEA 1	II 1.1	19/6/2017	Attortorkope	Male	Both	Commercial
	II 1.2			Male		Commercial
	II 1.3	16/7/2017	Dogo	Male	Rainfed	Semi-commercial
	II 1.4	21/06/2017		Male		Semi-commercial
	II 1.5			Male		Semi-commercial
	II 1.6			Male		Semi-commercial
	II 1.7	26/9/2017	MacCarthykope	Male	Both	Commercial
	II 1.8	21/06/2017	Adornorkope	Male	Both	Commercial
	II 1.9	15/06/2017	Tovie	Female	Rainfed	Semi-commercial
	II 1.10	18/6/2017	Angorsekope	Male	Irrigation	Commercial
	II 1.11	29/8/2017	Wasakuse	Male	Rainfed	Semi-commercial
	II 1.12		Wasakuse	Female		Subsistence
AEA 2	II 2.1	12/07/2017	Kajanya	Male & Female	Rainfed	Subsistence
	II 2.2	13/07/2017		Male		Commercial
	II 2.3	12/07/2017	Tamatoku	Female		Commercial
	II 2.4	18/7/2017		Female		Semi-commercial
	II 2.5	20/9/2017		Male		Subsistence
	II 2.6	13/7/2017	Amaneykope	Female		Semi-commercial
	II 2.7			Male		Commercial
AEA 3	II 3.1	20/6/2017	Bedeku	2 Males	Rainfed	Commercial
	II 3.2		Kasseh	Male		Commercial
	II 3.3		Korlekope	Male		Commercial
	II 3.4		Bedeku-kpornya	Male		Semi-commercial
	II 3.5			Male		Semi-commercial
	II 3.6	29/8/2017	Lufenya	Male	Rainfed	Semi-commercial
	II 3.7			Male	Rainfed	Semi-commercial
AEA 4	II 4.1	19/7/2017	Anyarkpor	Female	Irrigation	Commercial
	II 4.2			Female
	II 4.3		Ada Foah	Male
	II 4.4			Male
	II 4.5			Male
	II 4.6	10/8/2018	Totimekope	Male
	II 4.7	31/7/2017	Mataheko/Ocanseykope	Male
	II 4.8			Male
	II 4.9			Male & Female
	II 4.10			Female
AEA 5	II 5.1	28/6/2017	Detsekope	Male	Rainfed	Commercial
	II 5.2	27/06/2017	Toje	Male		Commericla
	II 5.3			Female		Semi-commercial
	II 5.4			Male		Commercial
	II 5.5			Female		Semi-commercial
	II 5.6	28/6/2017	Asigbekope	Male		Semi-commercial
	II 5.7	28/6/2017	Kpodokope	Male		Commercial

Table A2. Code list.

Codes	Answers the question:
Seasons Preseason Main season Minor season	Periods for the cultivation of crops and it coincides with the occurrence of the rainfall
Rainfall conditions Above normal Normal Below Abnormal Bad weather Good weather	Descriptions of the occurrence of rainfall Rainfall condition comprising of more than 15 rainy days in a month 5–14 rainy days in a rainy season When 0–3 rainy days is recorded in a rainy season The record of rainy days in a dry season or month The occurrence of above or below rainfall condition Normal rainfall conditions in the farming seasons
Crop selections Preseason crop selections Main season crop selections Minor season crop selections	Decision-making on type of crops selected for the a specific season
Option	Collections of usual decision-making for the farming seasons
Ploughing	Eg. Use of tractors to plough the land
Harrowing
Land preparation	Eg. Burning of weeds and tree stumps
Sowing of seed
Nursery
Transplanting
Irrigation strategies	Eg. Carrying water to the farm
Application of 1st, 2nd, 3rd Fertilizers	Eg. N.P.K, Ammonia or Urea
Thinning
Weed control
Pest control
Spraying	Eg. Application of fruit boosters or insecticides
Soil moisture conservation	Eg. Application of cow dung or manure
Harvesting
Flexible decision-making strategy Decision-making strategy: Muddling through Decision-making strategy: Irrigation Decision-making strategy: Wait-and-see/delay	What plans do you make after the rainfall or when there is no rainfall in the season?
Robust decision-making strategy	Type of plan used by a farmer to support growth of crops during too much or too little or dry spell condition
Decision-making strategy: Drought resistant
Decision-making strategy: Short duration cultivars	Crops that matures 2 months or less eg. water melon
Decision-making strategy: Starting early	eg. Planting immediately after Christmas
Decision-making strategy: Portfolio of agrochemicals	eg. Fungicides, pesticides, insecticides, categories of feritlizers, weedicides, herbicides
Decision-making strategy: Divers planting dates
Decision-making strategy: Transplanting in badges	At least 2 weeks intervals between transplanting dates
Decision-making strategy: varieties of seeds
Decision-making strategy: Varieties of seeds of the same crop	Eg. Tomatoes has seminis, pecto mech, local cultivars etc.
Decision-making strategy: Switching crops between seasons
Decision-making strategy: Diversification
Decision-making strategy: Intercropping

Addo AK, Nicholls RJ, Codjoe SNA, Abu M. 2017. A biophysical and socioeconomic review of the Volta delta, Ghana. J Coastal Res. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-17-00129

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar