Financial losses due to fumonisin contamination in the Texas High Plains maize

Figures & data

Table 1. Maize discounts for approved THP markets based on FDA recommendations.

		Grain elevator PDs		Crop insurance DFs
Ranges of FUM (FB1 + FB2 + FB3)	Intended maize usage	2017	2018	2017	2018
2 mg/kg or less	For humans and all other animals	Full price	Full price	N/A	Full price
2.1–60 mg/kg	For ruminants raised for slaughter	−0.3	Full price	N/A	0.2
60.1–100 mg/kg	For poultry raised for slaughter	−0.8	−0.3	N/A	0.4
≥ 100.1 mg/kg	Considered non-salvageable	No sale	No sale	N/A	0.5^a
≥ 100.1 mg/kg	Considered non-salvageable	No sale	No sale	N/A	1.0^b

PD: Price discounts assigned for maize sold to grain elevators; DFs: Discount factors determined by the USDA RMA based on quality deficiencies, such as FUM contamination, covered in annual SPs

^a0.5 DF if crop is sold, fed, or destroyed unacceptably

^b1.0 DF (ZMV) if crop is sold, fed, or destroyed in an acceptable manner

Table 2. OTSC survey data for FUM content in the 2017 THP maize harvest.

Ranges of FUM (FB1 + FB2 + FB3)	No. of samples	%
2 mg/kg	13	5
2.1–60 mg/kg	219	81
60.1–100 mg/kg	28	10
≥ 100.1 mg/kg	11	4
Total	271	–

Figure 1. Decision tree for determining the final disposition of THP maize containing FUM based on blending permissions. ‘P’ represents the probabilities of particular events occurring. ^aPs for the option to blend. ^bPs without blending permissions.

Table 3. Potential economic consequences for THP farmers and the maize industry.

		Economic change, US $ M
Crop insurance status	Baseline, US $ M	Scenario B	Scenario C
Insured	235.7	−15.1	−100.4
Uninsured	318.3	−35.0	−35.0
THP maize industry	554.0	−50.1	−135.5

Table 4. Projected financial losses for THP grain elevators.

	Option to blend		No option to blend
FUM in maize, mg/kg	Rejected maize bu.	Losses, US $ M	Rejected maize bu.	Losses, US $ M
≤ 2	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a
2.1–60	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a
60.1–100	N/a	N/a	12.3	−47.2
≥ 100.1	4.9	−18.9	4.9	−18.9
Total losses	4.9	−18.9	17.2	−66.2

FUM: fumonisin; bu.: bushels of maize; N/a: not applicaple; M = 1 Million

Figure 2. Results for the sensitivity analyses. A (top left): THP uninsured farmers. B (top right): THP insured farmers. C (bottom left): THP grain elevators. D (bottom right): THP maize industry.