Chapter Two: Pakistan After 9/11

Abstract

Can Pakistan find a way out of violent instability? How severe are the problems of this strategically crucial country, and how much of a threat do they pose beyond Pakistan's borders? Has Pakistan become an ungovernable failed state?

Hilary Synnott draws on his experience of Pakistan to argue that any strategy for addressing the country's problems requires a nuanced understanding of its turbulent history, the failings of successive governments and the weaknesses of core institutions. He sheds light on the role of Pakistan's army and its intelligence service in the power-play of domestic politics, and looks at how the army has used religion and the issue of Kashmir to maintain its own influence, often with disastrous consequences for the security of Pakistan and the wider world. Synnott rigorously analyses developments in Pakistan's volatile tribal regions, little understood in the West despite their profound implications for regional and international security, and examines the role of past events – especially since 11 September 2001 – in generating the animosity that many Pakistanis feel towards the West today.

Where does Pakistan go from here? Emphasising that there are no easy answers, Synnott explores how concerned outsiders might finally succeed in building durable relationships with Pakistan, and help to stabilise a country that has struggled with disordered politics and chronic insecurity since independence in 1947.

Notes

Musharraf, In The Line of Fire, p. 201.

UN Security Council Resolution 1373, 2001.

For 2002 to 2007, the US concluded foreign military-sales agreements with Pakistan worth $4.55bn. The equipment to be paid for from Pakistan's hardpressed budget included a number of ‘“big-ticket” platforms more suited to conventional warfare’ than to counter-terrorism operations. Apart from 18 F-16s, an aircraft with a long and controversial history in the region, which can be used in counterinsurgency operations, these included 500 AMRAAM and 500 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, 100 Harpoon antiship missiles and six close-in naval guns, as well as other equipment and armaments, the costs of which have been shared between the US and Pakistan. See ‘Major US Arms Sales and Grants to Pakistan Since 2001’, prepared for the Congressional Research Service by K. Alan Kronstadt, specialist in South Asian affairs, 3 June 2009, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakarms.pdf.

Nathaniel Fick, One Bullet Away (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2005), pp. 101–10.

This phrase emerged again during a visit to NWFP in 2002, in a conversation with a former senior member of the ISI who had observed a number of such interactions.

‘Afghanistan: National Opinion Poll for BBC, ABC News and ARD’, BBC press release, 9 February 2009, http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2009/02_february/09/afghanistan.shtml.

Talbot, Pakistan: A Modern History, p. 395.

P.R. Chari, Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema and Stephen P. Cohen, Four Crises and a Peace Process (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007), p. 273. This provides an authoritative and detailed account of events that were little known outside governments at the time.

Ibid., p. 163.

The speech is summarised in ‘Musharraf Speech Highlights’, BBC News, 12 January 2002, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1757251.stm.

Musharraf, In the Line of Fire, pp. 87–98.

Reuters report, 31 May 2002, quoted in Zahid Hussain, Frontline Pakistan, (London: IB Tauris, 2007), p. 109.

Mark Mazzetti, ‘Behind Analyst's Cool Demeanor, Deep Anxiety Over American Policy’, New York Times, 26 December 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/washington/27riedel.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=riedel&st=cse.

Talbot, Pakistan: A Modern History, p. 399.

See ‘Declaration of the Presidency on Behalf of the European Union on the General Elections in Pakistan’, 15 October 2002, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=PESC/02/155&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en; ‘EU Finds Flaws in Pakistani Vote’, VOA News.com, 12 October 2002, http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2002-10/a-2002-10-12-14-EU.cfm?moddate=2002-10-12.

Ahmed Rashid, ‘Jihadi Suicide Bombers: The New Wave’, New York Review of Books, vol. 55, no. 10, 10 June 2008, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21473; Hasan Askari Rizvi, ‘A Difficult New Year’, Daily Times, 4 January 2008.

Parliamentary and presidential elections are not directly related to one another. Constitutionally, the president is elected by the two national and four provincial assemblies, while parliament is chosen by the electorate.

Private conversations, New Delhi, December 2007 and subsequently.

Carlotta Gall, ‘Musharraf Wins Vote, But Court Will Have Final Say’, New York Times, 6 October 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/06/world/asia/06cnd-pakistan.html?_r=1&hp.

Shamim-ur-Rahman, ‘Benazir Calls it Martial Law on Dash Back Home’, Dawn, 4 November 2007, http://www.dawn.com/2007/11/04/top6.htm.

Carlotta Gall and Salman Masood, ‘Ex-premier of Pakistan Arrested on his Return’, New York Times, 10 September 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/10/world/asia/10cndpakistan.html?_r=1.

Talbot, Pakistan: A Modern History, p. 400.

Jane Perlez and Salman Masood, ‘Bhutto's Widower, Viewed as Ally by US, Wins the Pakistani Presidency Handily’, New York Times, 6 September 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world/asia/07pstan.Html.

See the PPP website, http://www.ppp.org.pk/saazcv.html.

Personal interviews with Zardari and Sharif, Pakistan, December 2007.

‘Text of the Charter of Democracy’, Dawn, 16 May 2006, http://www.dawn.com/2006/05/16/local23.htm.

Interviews, New Delhi, December 2007.

Ali's The Duel offers powerful if sometimes polemical material to suggest that many of Pakistan's current ills are the result of its past relationships with other countries, especially the US.

Account given to the author by a senior Pakistani government official, early 2007.

Sahar Ahmed, ‘Pakistan Won'st be Going to IMF: President Zardari’, Reuters, 9 September 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssChemicalsAgricultural/idUSL948890320080909?sp=true.

Jane Perlez, ‘Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek IMF Aid’, New York Times, 18 October 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/world/asia/19zardari.html?ref=asia.

‘Saudi Response “Positive” to Pakistan's Requests: Tarin’, Dawn, 5 November 2008, http://www.dawn.com/2008/11/06/top3.htm.

‘Pakistan Gets $7.6 Billion Loan from IMF’, IMF Survey Magazine online, 24 November 2008, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR112408C.htm.

IMF, ‘IMF Executive Board Approves US$7.6 Billion Stand-By Arrangement for Pakistan’, press release, 24 November 2008, http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr08303.htm; World Bank, ‘Pakistan: Country Overview’, available at http://www. worldbank.org.

Syed Irfan Raza, ‘BISP to be Launched for Fata Women’, Dawn, http://www.dawn.com/2009/01/05/top8.htm; ‘Benazir Income Support Programme from Sep: ECC’, The News, 31 July 2008, http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=127291.

There is increasingly authoritative literature in this area. See in particular Joshua T. White, Pakistan's Islamist Frontier: Islamic Politics and US Policy in Pakistan's North-West Frontier, Center on Faith and International Affairs, Religion and Security Monograph Series, no. 1, 2008; and International Crisis Group, ‘Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Challenge’, Asia Report no. 164, 13 March 2009.

Matthias Gebauer, ‘In the Realm of Mullah Fazlullah’, Spiegel Online International, 22 November 2007, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,518962,00.html.

See in particular White, Pakistan's Islamist Frontier, pp. 89–90.

‘Official Confirms US Using Pakistani Base to Launch Attacks’, FOXNews.com, 19 February 2009, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/02/19/google-imageshows-base-pakistan/.

Bill Roggio, ‘US Strikes in Pakistan Aimed at Stopping the Next Sept. 11 Attack’, Long War Journal, 19 September 2008, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/us_strikes_in_pakist.Php.

Raja Asghar, ‘Outraged Parliament Wants Border Raids Repulsed’, Dawn, 5 September 2008, http://www.dawn.com/2008/09/05/top1.htm; on the attack itself, see also Roggio, ‘Pakistanis Claim US Helicopter-Borne Forces Assaulted Village in South Waziristan’, Long War Journal, 3 September 2008, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/pakistanis_claim_us.php.

Bobby Ghosh and Mark Thompson, ‘The CIA's Silent War in Pakistan’, Time Magazine, 1 June 2009.

Amir Mir, ‘60 Drone Hits Kill 14 al-Qaeda Men, 687 Civilians’, The News, international edition, 10 April 2009, http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=21440.

David Kilcullen and Andrew MacDonald Exum, ‘Death from Above, Outrage Down Below’, New York Times, 16 May 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/opinion/17exum.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=opinion.

Daniel Markey, ‘Hotbed of Terror’, Council on Foreign Relations op-ed, 11 August 2008, http://www.cfr.org/publication/16929/hotbed_of_terror.Html.

Lieutenant-General Tariq Majid, ‘Counter-terrorism and Counter-insurgency Efforts by Pakistan: Progress and Prospects’, paper presented to the 7th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008, p. 3.

Eric Thompson and Patricio Asfura- Heim, ‘Assessments of the Impact of 1206-Funded Projects in Selected Countries’, CNA Corporation Center for Strategic Studies, July 2008, p. 23.

‘Malakand division’ is, strictly speaking, an obsolete term denoting a large portion of NWFP that includes the districts of Swat, Chitral, Malakand and others. The term remains in common usage and is used here in recognition of this common currency.

Pakistan Defence Secretary Lieutenant- General (Retd) Athar Ali Syed, ‘Winning Counter-Insurgency Campaigns: the Pakistan Perspective’, presentation to the 8th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2009.

‘Number of Displaced Persons Exceeds 3 Million: Minister’, Dawn, 30 May 2009.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, ‘Pakistan: NWFP Displacement’, Situation Report no. 6, 26 June 2009.

Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, ‘Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says’, New York Times, 18 May 2009.

See for example Hilary Synnott, The Causes and Consequences of South Asia's Nuclear Tests, Adelphi Paper 332 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 1999), pp 70–4.

David E. Sanger, ‘Obama's Worst Pakistan Nightmare’, New York Times, 8 January 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11pakistan-t.html.

‘Mullen Believes Pakistan Nukes Secure’, Associated Press, 4 May 2009, http://www.military.com/news/article/mullen-believes-pakistan-nukessecure.Html.

IISS, Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the rise of proliferation networks: A net assessment (London: IISS, 2005).